Bastards stole their power / from the victims of the Us v Them years
November 6, 2017 10:59 AM   Subscribe

One year after perhaps the most disastrous electoral result in the history of the United States, tomorrow America returns to the polls for Election Day.

With a mixed record this year of surprising victories in state-level legislative special elections, but several disappointments in Congressional ones, the Democratic party is hoping to turn the historic low approval ratings of the president into electoral victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere across the nation.

Even in an odd-numbered year, the US has lots of elections - an estimated 100 million people will have some level of election this week. Some info on the biggest races to be watching:

VIRGINIA
GOVERNOR
For the past four years, Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe has cut a surprisingly progressive figure, given his history as head of the Democratic National Committee. He's still popular, but Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms. After a spirited but basically friendly primary, Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam won the Democratic nomination over former congressman Tom Perriello fairly handily. Perriello pledged his support and has since worked assiduously to elect Northam.

The Republican primary, by contrast, was extremely bloody, resulting in a shockingly narrow win by former Republican National Committee head Ed Gillespie over Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, an all but explicit white supremacist. Stewart's support has been minimal

Gillespie, who had a reputation as a generic pro-business Republican, has gone all out on culture war attacks, heavily emphasizing Confederate statues, alleged Hispanic gangs, and a confusing situation over "sanctuary cities." Northam seems to have run a sup-par campaign, focusing too much on his biography, waffling over the possibility of agreeing with Trump, and underemphasizing economic success under McAuliffe. As a result, his lead of 7-ish points in August has dwindled to 3.3 points as of today. This works out to a 90% confidence level result of anywhere from about Northam +11 to Gillespie +5. DecisionDesk is rating this race a Tossup.

(Note for folks watching returns Tuesday - Northern Virginia tends to come in late; Gillespie is likely to lead early, then see that advantage diminish. A clear win might be called as early as 9 pm ET; a close one as late as 11:30)

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Virginia, somewhat unusually, elects the governor and lt. gov. separately. The Democrats have nominated former Assistant US Attorney Justin Fairfax; the GOP has nominated state Senator Jill Vogel. Both have some biographical juice - Fairfax would be only the second African-American to hold statewide office (after early 90s governor Doug Wilder), Vogel would be the first woman to do so. Vogel is seen as moderate-ish and represents from the DC exurbs, so might blunt some of Fairfax's normal advantage there. // DecisionDesk rates this race Tilts Democratic.

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Elected by a 907 vote margin in 2013, incumbent Mark Herring is running again as the Democratic candidate. He's worked up a decently liberal reputation, participating with Dem AGs against the Trump administration, and refusing to defend Virginia's anti-gay marriage law. His opponent, John Adams, on the other hand, worked on the Hobby Lobby case. Herring is outraising Adams handily, and has the incumbency advantage. // DecisionDesk rates this race Leans Democratic.

HOUSE OF DELEGATES
All seats in the 100 seat lower house of the legislature are up for election this year (the 40 seats in the state Senate are all up in 2019); the GOP currently has a 17 seat advantage. Democrats mounted a far stronger challenge this year than in the past, contesting 88 seats, versus only 72 by the GOP. Strong candidate recruitment including a record number of women combined with a number of Rs representing blue-trending areas (17 GOP legislative districts were won by Hillary Clinton) have Democratic hopes high. While almost certain not to flip control, most forecasters are expecting Dem pickups of 5-8 seats. DecisionDesk is calling for 6-14.

OUTLOOK
This is the most focused on state of the night, and is on a knife edge. The GOP could limit the Democrats to relatively minor House gains, and regain the trifecta (control of the executive and both houses of the legislature). Conversely, the Dems could make substantial gains in the House and retain the governor's mansion. The GOP has not won a statewide election since 2009, and Trump is highly unpopular, probably enough to give the Democrats a happy result, if narrowly.

MORE READING
-- Ballotpedia Delegate races to watch
-- WP: House results a leading indicator for US House 2018 results
-- Decision Desk writeups: governor, LG, AG, HOD (overview, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, update)
-- VA House district map [PDF]
-- 538: VA governor isn't predictive, but it still matters for how 2018 will be conducted (plus county numbers to crunch)
-- Carolyn Fiddler of DKE House predictions
-- Cook Political House rankings (and more on why this is a leading indicator)
-- Larry Sabato House predictions
-- DKE commentor HeartCooksBrain with detailed House predictions (original, updates)
-- Even yet more DKE ratings of House races
*****

NEW JERSEY
GOVERNOR
While attracting much less attention than Virginia, New Jersey represents an opportunity for Democrats to take back unified control of a large state. Democratic candidate Phil Murphy won the primary handily. He has since run a fairly progressive campaign, perhaps partly to compensate for his background at Goldman Sachs. His opponent is Lt. Gov (and Secretary of State - New Jersey is weird) Kim Guadagno. She won her primary more narrowly, and has spent most of her campaign trying to distance herself from governor Chris Christie, and in recent weeks, hitting on "sanctuary cities," à la Ed Gillespie.

Murphy has maintained a steady lead of about 14 points or so, aided by absolutely abysmal approval ratings for outgoing Gov. Christie. A Dem pickup here seems very likely.

(NJ elects the LG with the governor, so no separate notes here)

LEGISLATURE
All 40 seats in the Senate and 80 seats in the General Assembly are up for election. Democrats control the Senate 24-16 and the GA 52-28. Thus, while flips to GOP control are possible, they seem quite unlikely. The DNC has been criticized for putting some money into NJ legislature races, when the money would be better put elsewhere, like PA judicial races.

OUTLOOK
All things are possible, but Phil Murphy has been solidly in the lead for months. Democrats look likely to restore a trifecta here and perhaps pick up a few seats in the legislature.

MORE READING
-- Ballotpedia Races To Watch for Senate and General Assembly
-- Sabato on what Virginia and New Jersey results mean.
*****

SPECIAL ELECTIONS
Whenever a seat becomes open (most frequently, the incumbent gets elected to something else or dies) a special election is held to fill the vacancy. There have been 42 specials since last election, but there are about the same number again just this Tuesday.

The headline special election is in Washington's 45th Senate district. Previously represented by a Republican who passed away, the district went for Clinton by 37 points. The Democrats currently control the governor's mansion, the state House, and *should* control the Senate, but a single Dem is caucusing with the GOP, blocking all sorts of legislation. A victory here by the Democratic candidate (King County prosecutor Manka Dhingra) would restore unified control in WA, as in OR and CA. Dhingra won the first round (WA does a top two runoff) by 10 points; a late September poll showed her with a similar lead. A huge amount of money have been poured into this race, but at this point, Democrats look likely to pull it off.

MORE READING
-- Full list of Tuesday special elections on Ballotpedia
-- Specials to watch from DKE
-- NYT on the WA-SD-45 race: Poised for West Coast Dominance, Democrats Eye Grand Agenda

*****

OTHER THINGS ON THE BALLOT
There are many more elections out there this week - ballot issues! Judges! Mayors! My friend is running for borough council! Here are some selected highlights:
-- New York puts the possibility of a constitutional convention on the ballot every 20 years. The voters haven't actually approved one since the current constitution was put in place in 1938, though, and polls have it failing this year as well.

-- Medicaid expansion in Maine. Governor/mini-Trump Paul LePage has vetoed several attempts to utilize Obamacare Medicaid expansion funds. This measure would circumvent him. No good polling, but expansion is generally viewed as popular.

-- Atlanta will be voting for a new mayor. This one looks to go to a runoff. Leading candidate Mary Norwood is interesting on two levels - she is IDing as Independent, and she's white (Atlanta has had black mayors since the 70s).


*****

MORE READING & USEFUL INFO
-- Nate Cohn on concerns about pollsters not updating for new correlation with education level. (but see also this Twitter thread from Nate Silver in response)
-- One pager from the DLCC on races to watch [PDF]
-- Ballotpedia top 10 races to watch
-- DKE spreadsheet and writeup (with poll closing times!).
-- Good accounts to watch on Twitter for results: DKE, Ready2Vote, USA Election Watch. Might also be good, but tend to be slower: flippable, DecisionDesk. Good for analysis ("Gillespie seems to be underperforming in these Culpeper County precincts"): Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn.
-- My guess is that 538, DecisionDesk, and DKE will have liveblogs, links in comments when available.

*****

FINAL NOTE

Please vote. Make sure your friends do, too.
posted by Chrysostom (1166 comments total) 103 users marked this as a favorite
 
Thanks Chrysostom for this post, and for keeping our eyes on the ball with your invaluable recurring special election updates in the megathreads.
posted by lalex at 11:02 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]


Good luck, America friends; good luck dear hearts.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:04 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


I'm heavily involved* in my local NJ state legislative race (LD-39). This traditionally Republican district has not sent a Democrat to Trenton since Reagan was in office. The state senator has been serving in Trenton longer than I've been alive! All 3 state reps have A grades from the NRA. Time to GO! #FlipThe39thNJ
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 11:08 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]


*Phone banking, canvassing, supporter housing. I'm having a ball! Looking forward to the off-season, too.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 11:09 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


There are only five things going on in little Rhode Island this year, but I want everyone in East Providence, Lincoln, Scituate, and Westerly to get out there and vote!

/files/sos.ri.gov/divisions/Elections/upcoming-election/Upcoming-elections-center
posted by wenestvedt at 11:13 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


START LOCAL, DAMMIT
posted by wenestvedt at 11:13 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]


It's critical to note that a Republican win in Virginia would put them only one state away from being able to call a constitutional convention.

Also, today's the marquee day for off-year elections, but don't forget the general election between Doug Jones and Roy Moore for Alabama Senate on December 12th!
posted by Rhaomi at 11:16 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Yes, thank you, everyone please feel free to comment with any local stuff of interest!

don't forget the general election between Doug Jones and Roy Moore for Alabama Senate on December 12th!

As FYI, I'll have the usual monthly special elections info for December later on this week (some primaries tomorrow, so I was waiting).
posted by Chrysostom at 11:19 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Here in Minneapolis Ward 12, one of the city council candidates has been buying Facebook ads calling the other one one a terrorist. Both are preppy looking white Democrats who have never even been arrested as far as anyone knows. The hatred and vitriol from national politics is leaking in.
posted by miyabo at 11:22 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


The Virginia Public Access Project intends to have live info tomorrow night for VA results. They're really good for stuff like early voting and finance info, worth a look to see what their liveblogging looks like.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:23 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Chrysostom, thanks so much for putting this together! I'm always looking forward to your election posts - so well-organized and informative.

I am sitting here in California with no local or state elections going on in my neck of the woods. So I'll just cheer Team Blue on wherever they are. Vote local! It's so important, and something I think the Democratic party machine, such as it is, has forgotten.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:26 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Im having a lot of difficulty dampening the chicken little voices in my head who are screaming bloody murder looking at the way the Northam Campaign is being run. This is a huge election which should have drawn the nationwide focus of the DNC and I know not a single person who would describe the official campaign as ranking above “barely competent”. This includes the full power of Northern Virginia, an area chock full of experienced dem campaign staff. Then we get the DFA “unendorsing” Northam one week out? What the hell is going on?

There is either some major inparty fighting going on that’s causing a lot of people to sit this one out or the Democrats have a leadership vacuum from top to bottom. Most likely both.
posted by cyphill at 11:29 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Also, the Seattle mayoral election is tomorrow, one of the crazier races in modern history, what with the incumbent's sex abuse scandals turning the whole thing upside down in May, the highly touted progressive/socialist candidate not making the final round thanks to a whole bunch of insane vote splitting, and oh, an all-woman runoff for the job.
posted by dw at 11:30 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Seattle will have its first woman mayor elected since 1926!
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


My friend is running for school board in Columbus, Ohio, as part of the progressive Yes We Can slate. I live in North Carolina so I can't vote for her, but I went to Ohio to canvass for her in October. That weekend gave me hope for the future like nothing else has in the past year. I'd never knocked on doors before and was not looking forward to it at all, but the whole day we only had one guy who shut the door in our faces, and I came away fired up and determined to get involved campaigning on a local level in the future. That such an openly left-wing group of people can get such a positive response in one of the largest cities of the Midwest - it's heartening. There is hope. There are people out there trying really hard to change the world.
posted by something something at 11:40 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]


> Seattle will have its first woman mayor elected since 1926!

And if you don't drop your ballot in the mail with Cary Moon's name marked, Seattle's first woman mayor elected since 1926 will be godawful.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:42 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Reposted from the mega-thread:

Scott Clement and Mark Blumenthal, WaPo: How polling methodology affects Ralph Northam’s lead in the Virginia governor’s race

Two recent surveys illustrate the challenge of determining who is actually likely to vote. Based on different methods of identifying likely voters, Northam’s lead could be as large as eight points and as small as two points. […]

Despite these different methods, both surveys found Northam with a slight lead over Gillespie of five percentage points among likely voters. The Post’s telephone poll, conducted Oct. 26-29, shows Northam leading 49 to 44 percent among likely voters, while the SurveyMonkey online poll, conducted Oct. 20-Nov. 2, shows Northam leading 51 to 46 percent.

But as the graph below shows, the size of Northam’s lead depends on who is defined as likely to vote.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 11:54 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]


I wrote postcards for VA-17, in Roanoke. I don't think Djuna Obsorne has much of a chance, unfortunately, but she sounds awesome and exactly what we need from women deciding to run for office. CHALLENGE EVERY RACE, FOLKS.

If I swayed even one voter outta 100 I'll consider it a good job and if nothing else I hope I reminded people to go vote on Tuesday.
posted by lydhre at 11:54 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]


Related to the title: Automatic for the People has a 25th anniversary deluxe release this month.
posted by koavf at 11:56 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I wrote postcards for VA-17 too, lydhre! Here’s hoping we crossed the streams!
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 11:58 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Northam's field operation has been pretty on-point here in Richmond. But it's going to be a damn nail-biter.
posted by Vhanudux at 12:10 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Postcards to Voters wrote in support of 36 candidates (some on combined slates) running tomorrow, and I'll be very curious to see how they do!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 12:11 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Our local elections were decided in the primary last may; the general is just a formality since there are only Democrats to vote for, the Republicans have given up on even contesting races in Pittsburgh. Statewide, there's only judges to vote for and because I never have any idea how to evaluate a candidate for a court, I just vote for the Democrat.
posted by octothorpe at 12:12 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Candidates for Judge aren't allowed to campaign on issues so there isn't much to go on when you're trying to make decisions of which one to vote for.
posted by octothorpe at 12:19 PM on November 6


> Seattle will have its first woman mayor elected since 1926!

And if you don't drop your ballot in the mail with Cary Moon's name marked, Seattle's first woman mayor elected since 1926 will be godawful.


Seconded. Come on Cary Moon!

I was really hoping for Nikita Oliver to make the ballot, dammit.
posted by Existential Dread at 12:23 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Candidates for Judge aren't allowed to campaign on issues so there isn't much to go on when you're trying to make decisions of which one to vote for.
Your state bar association probably rates judges on raw competence, so definitely check out their ratings. Generally, they approve almost everyone, and the ones they don't approve have very deep problems that are typically not ideological. There are sometimes special interest lawyers associations that rate judges on their issues. If all else fails, look for something like a Christian Coalition voting guide and then vote the opposite of how they recommend.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 12:26 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]




Probably the last NJ Gov poll:

Quinnipiac: Murphy up 53-41.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:29 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Racist Campaign Literature Surfaces in New Jersey: Racist campaign literature has been distributed in two New Jersey towns with large immigrant populations ahead of Tuesday’s election, in both instances targeting Asian American candidates.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 12:34 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


This might be uncouth self-linking, but I've made a number of vaguely informative and possibly entertaining politics-related thingies for work. The context is teaching MATH 105, "Contemporary Mathematics", our class of life-relevant mathematics for students who have no math requirements associated with their majors. There's a unit on voting and apportionment systems, and this year I'm teaching the efficiency gap as well (pitched to the students as: "Chief Justice Roberts doesn't understand this, so I'm explaining it to you so you can go explain it to him.").

Anyways, there are some manipulable spreadsheets I give the students to play with. Here's one where you can see how tinkering with apportionment method or House size would affect individual states' representation. I also made a efficiency gap calculator, initially populated with the data from the 2016 Kentucky statehouse election, but you can put whatever you want in it. And finally, I'm giving my students whaty I hope some of them will find to be a really fun project, about using mathematical analysis in support of your weakened political party's future prospects.
posted by jackbishop at 12:37 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


Also, the Seattle mayoral election is tomorrow, one of the crazier races in modern history

Ah, much like AD 69, 2017 is going to be the Year of Four Mayors. Somewhat less epic in scope, but at least it's far less bloody.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:43 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Oops. So that anyone inclined to curiosity isn't confused by my lack of exegesis: Seattle's predicament, circa 2017.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:46 PM on November 6


Wasserman with another "why the VA House races are important" column - I feel like he's written this three times already. His latest and greatest on races to watch, anyway.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Northam's field operation has been pretty on-point here in Richmond. But it's going to be a damn nail-biter.

yeah, this is the first time i've ever been visited by canvassers, twice so far in a week. i hope that's enough to make up for the absolute dumpster fire that is Northam. about the only good thing you can say about him is that Planned Parenthood assures us that he will veto any attempt to further restrict abortion here, but seeing how quickly he folded over the literal non-issue of sanctuary cities when challenged on it by the political right, I don't have a whole lot of confidence there. he also voted for W. Bush both times.
posted by indubitable at 1:27 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Appreciate any advice on doing Indivisible text/ phone bank for GOTV. I signed up at the texting software site (AFAIR I hadn't volunteered thru it previously). It's time for my shift, but my new account page states No Assignments.

Should I keep checking during (or after) the shift time? Should I refresh the page, log out/in?
posted by NorthernLite at 1:32 PM on November 6


Northam voted for Bush twice? How the fuck did this guy become the VA Democratic Candidate? Why do I have to hold my nose to vote for every big ticket dem? I get it, it’s a tool of the right/Russia/whoever to say that the Democratic Party is beyond saving, but it would be nice if the Dems would actually do something to refute the accuracy of that statement. Like if your primary difficulty at the polls is the dissatisfaction of your own members towards your corrupt, millionaire, personality-less candidates MAYBE DONT KEEP THROWING ALL YOUR SUPPORT BEFORE PRIMARIES AT HORRIBLE RIGHT OF THE PARTY CANDIDATES BECAUSE THEY ARE “PRESUMPTIVE”!!!

BTW, no one should associate the get out the vote campaigns (which are mostly established GOTV orgs who do the same thing ever election and NOT operated by Northam’s campaign) with the VA dem campaign. The ground support GOTV seems pretty decent even though it seems motivated by fear of Gillespie more than any support for Northam. The mass media campaigns are terrifyingly bad.
posted by cyphill at 1:48 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]


How the fuck did this guy become the VA Democratic Candidate?

By 64,000 more Virginians voting for him in the the primary than for his opponent.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:52 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]


It should be noted that Northam wasn't boasting about those votes, he says he regrets them.
posted by Justinian at 1:58 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Listen, I understand how fucking primaries work. The question is why is the Democratic Party (who solicit and approve candidates and enter fundraising agreements with them) throwing their lot in with a guy who apparently is a compassionate conservative pretending to be a dem? Why did they support him over Perriello, a bona fide Democrat, at a time when progressivism is on the rise? Don’t play cute and pretend we live in a bona fide democracy. This candidate was chosen by the VA DNC a year ago. By the time I voted in the primary my ability to “choose” was already entirely eliminated.

So now I get the honor of voting for a spineless war hawk because he’s not openly republican and he says that THIS TIME he’s not going to bend on women’s rights (but he will on every fucking other thing, and he’s bent on women’s rights before ). But it’s my fault for not participating more! I get DMs here telling me I should be campaigning instead of complaining! I should be mailing postcards! Campaigning for someone who I have zero faith in! Who voted for Bush! Twice!

And WE cry about tribalism?
posted by cyphill at 2:03 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]


Its worth noting that the guy he (Northam) beat in the primary, Tom Periello, was a one term congressman who lost his seat in 2010 despite/because he refused to back away from his unabashedly progressive vision.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:03 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


Sweet, we found another primary to relitigate
posted by Jpfed at 2:06 PM on November 6 [53 favorites]


Tom Periello has been working his ass off to get Northam elected, so maybe we follow his lead and get a Dem in there and work to push him further left. Because for damn sure you're not pushing Gillespie.
posted by chris24 at 2:06 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]


Until...I dunno, economically average people, I guess....until those people control the workings of the Democratic party, we will always get mediocre centrists with one or two good points and relatively close ties to banks and warmongers. They won't be as bad as the Republicans - more ethical and more beholden to people of color, women and indeed the economically average - but they won't be that great, either.

The Democratic party is a microcosm of the US - controlled by the very richest people, whose interests do not align with the majority. I mean, we might as well ask why you have to be so rich to run for and hold office - most of this country is, obviously, not the 1%, so why are we always ruled by them? None of these people really, viscerally know what it is to worry about making the rent or going to the doctor or keeping their jobs or ever being able to retire. Even if they are individually nice, generous people, the problems of economically average Americans are an abstraction to them - which is why most of them are such good buddies with the Republicans across the aisle.

Right now, at this historical moment, there is no wiggle room in terms of who to vote for. We have to push back the Trumpists. But the party has to be taken over from the bottom up by people whose life experiences are more typical and who will, consequently, have a little fire in their bellies.
posted by Frowner at 2:12 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Manhattan!: Write in Marc Fliedner for DA!

If you care about sexual assault and holding powerful people accountable - write in Marc Fliedner! Spelling counts!
posted by melissasaurus at 2:25 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Rain is forecast for NoVa tomorrow; I don' know about the rest of the state. Bad weather favors Republicans. Help drive people if you can!
posted by jgirl at 2:26 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


get a Dem in there and work to push him further left.

i swear i'm not asking to be contrary -- i sincerely am seeking examples. are there times this strategy has worked?
posted by halation at 2:29 PM on November 6


Terry McAuliffe?
posted by saturday_morning at 2:40 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


i sincerely am seeking examples. are there times this strategy has worked?

Yes....

posted by dw at 2:41 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Didn't it work out that way for Terry McAuliffe?

Also, for anyone considering staying home, note that running up the score pushes Dems to the left.
posted by Jpfed at 2:41 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]


Obama and gay marriage?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:41 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


Kirsten Gillibrand
posted by chris24 at 2:41 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Kirsten Gillibrand

yep, and she's so good at it. Just a couple weeks ago I was listening to her give a smart, sincere-sounding explanation of her total turnaround on gun control.
posted by lalex at 2:43 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]


Look, your options in Virginia are a moderate Democrat or a Republican who is the architect of the modern gerrymandering movement. The winner gets to set the state and federal districts for the 2020s and could conceivably push on changing them next year.

So, you can either vote for the unpalatable candidate, or you can vote for the candidate who will likely disenfranchise the Left in the name of "voter fraud" and "fair elections."

We all wish elections had stellar candidates that represented our views. I wish the Mariners would go to a goddamn World Series. But they haven't, so I endure with whomever is there. Only difference with elections is it goddamn fucking matters who has the keys to our ballot boxes where the Series is just a bunch of games.
posted by dw at 2:45 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]


And I mean total. She's from upstate and went from an A to an F NRA rating.
posted by lalex at 2:46 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]


Minneapolis got $15/hour and some policing reforms by pushing Democrats to the left. Our city council isn't a bunch of socialists - they were pushed to the left on $15 by active campaigning from the unions and Socialist Alternative. I don't really think there's any issue where pushing people to the left isn't what happens, since we almost never elect people who are particularly left and push things on their own.

Or holy mackerel, consider every single anti-homophobic piece of legislation - those didn't happen because random straight dude Democrat loves the gays. The point is that you try to start with the farthest left person available and then work on them.
posted by Frowner at 2:47 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]


thanks! (i did ask sincerely, not rhetorically, because my pessimism is making me forget things and i was needing some cheering-up)
posted by halation at 2:52 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


They won't be as bad as the Republicans - more ethical and more beholden to people of color, women and indeed the economically average - but they won't be that great, either.

And if you want another reason why Republicans keep winning, there you go.

Republicans :"The GOP is the last chance for America to do God's work! Our guy will make America great!"

Democrats : "Well, this guy sucks, all the Democrats suck, because everything sucks. But he sucks less than the other guy, so you might as well vote for him. I guess. I dunno, fuck."

The sheer difference in enthusiasm and intensity is dismaying. And it's not something the Republicans do to the Democrats, it's self inflicted. It's something I saw repeatedly put last year - long sucks about how the Democratic Party and the candidate were completely unsatisfactory, followed by "But yeah, you should vote for them." And then they never asked why they weren't getting people to vote.
posted by happyroach at 3:10 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]


Fantastic post, but I will never watch live returns come in again after last year. My new election night tradition will be going to a movie in the evening and trying to forget about reality for a few hours (this year it shall be Thor Ragnarok The Adventures of Loki and his brother Thor, Part the Third). I just hope that when the movie is over, I can feel more optimistic about my state and my country than I have these past twelve months.
posted by longdaysjourney at 3:17 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]


Tom Periello has been working his ass off to get Northam elected

This bears repeating. Periello has been a model of grace and laudable behavior.
posted by Justinian at 3:19 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]


We have two open city council seats in Charlottesville. Nikuyah Walker, a progressive candidate running as an independent, has good shot at winning one of them. She's raised more money than any other candidate for city council in the second half of this year. She's supported by activist organizations founded by both Hillary and Bernie supporters (yeah, both of them) as well as the local chapters of DSA ans SURJ. I'm pretty stoked about this. And I'm happy to see this level unity. It's so different from the acrimony we see on line, including on MetaFilter.

(Notes: Both seats are at large. There are no Republicans running. None of the other independents seem to be viable. The second syllable of Nikuyah's name rhymes with "buy" and "guy".)
posted by nangar at 3:19 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I am not voting, as I moved two weeks before Election Day and we have mail in ballots and I’m not sure if I can still vote in old district or not. But I wish every anti-Trumpist the very best!
posted by corb at 3:30 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


happyroach: "It's something I saw repeatedly put last year - long sucks about how the Democratic Party and the candidate were completely unsatisfactory, followed by "But yeah, you should vote for them." And then they never asked why they weren't getting people to vote."

But from a leftist point of view, the United States is a hellscape where people keep on electing center-right politicians despite evidence that it's a terrible idea. Obama was not a great president. Hillary would've not been a very good president. But hey, I keep voting for them because I don't want leopards to eat my face. Doesn't mean I'm happy.
posted by TypographicalError at 3:35 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


I wish the Mariners would go to a goddamn World Series. But they haven't, so I endure with whomever is there. Only difference with elections is it goddamn fucking matters who has the keys to our ballot boxes where the Series is just a bunch of games.

Another difference -- the Mariners can still buy tickets and at least attend. Disenfranchised voters, not so much.
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:45 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]


happyroach: "It's something I saw repeatedly put last year - long sucks about how the Democratic Party and the candidate were completely unsatisfactory, followed by "But yeah, you should vote for them.""

I thought she was fucking great, and I was very enthused to vote for her, so be sure plug that into your model.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:21 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]




Alluding to all the controversies during the Saturday night rally, Fairfax — the nominee for lieutenant governor — warned activists against getting distracted by “petty arguments.” And he offered an extended Star Wars analogy.

is there anybody not embarrassing running as a Dem? am I going to read about Mark Herring comparing the attorney general's office to Harry Potter?
posted by indubitable at 4:56 PM on November 6


So , people in Manhattan

Write in Marc Fliedner for DA I beg you

Not just cause my party appears as colorful backdrop in The New Yorker thing
posted by The Whelk at 4:57 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]


> I was really hoping for Nikita Oliver to make the ballot, dammit.

Yeah I started to type up a rant about the role The Stranger plays in Seattle electoral politics. From my sorta-distant vantage point it seems that Moon advancing to the general ahead of Oliver indicates (at least) three things:
  1. The Stranger's influence cannot be overstated. Cary Moon has always been mildly beloved by urbanists, but she's not that well known among the general public. The boost she got from the Stranger endorsement is what carried her to the general.
  2. The owners of The Stranger plucked Sawant from obscurity and got her into the city council.... and they bitterly regret how successful they were at that, since Tim Keck and his restauranteur buddies hate how effectively Sawant pushed for the 15 dollar an hour minimum wage. They're not going to make that mistake again: they're always going to support liberal and center-left candidates over left candidates henceforth. But also...
  3. ... there's now space for a media outlet in Seattle to the left of The Stranger.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:57 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]


Yeah I started to type up a rant about the role The Stranger plays in Seattle electoral politics. From my sorta-distant vantage point it seems that Moon advancing to the general ahead of Oliver indicates (at least) three things:

Yes, but:
-- The Stranger endorsed Moon because Oliver did not impress in the editorial meetings, which was made even worse by Farrell entering the race (a highly competent state legislator)
-- That said, Oliver had no trouble winning on Capitol Hill and the U District, her bread and butter areas
-- She lost Beacon Hill and parts of the Rainier Valley to Hasegawa, endorsed by exactly zero of the mainline leftist groups
-- And she made absolutely no headway north of 50th Street, finishing 4th in some precincts behind Durkan, Moon, and Farrell

End of the day, you want to argue that the Stranger's split endorsement lost Oliver votes, you can, but Oliver lost this race in many, many ways. When you're an inexperienced activist running against an unpopular center-left mayor-cum-tyrant, you can make the mistakes she did and still end up top two. But when it's two state legislators, a major community activist, and the former mayor in the race against you, it's going to be costly given it was going to come down to a small margin for second.

The Stranger not giving her a full-throated endorsement hurt, but she hurt herself in so many ways it's hard to see how she could have won in that 40-car pileup of a primary.
posted by dw at 5:55 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]


> She lost Beacon Hill and parts of the Rainier Valley to Hasegawa, endorsed by exactly zero of the mainline leftist groups

I find Hasegawa totally fascinating... the impression I get is that everyone living in Beacon Hill knows him personally and thinks he's great. In certain ways he's someone to emulate.

in other ways he's not *coughcoughvapelordcough*

> But when it's two state legislators, a major community activist, and the former mayor in the race against you

Look I'm not going to let this absurd assertion pass. How dare you insinuate that Mike McGinn is politically relevant? How dare you?!
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 6:36 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


Boston's mayoral election tomorrow will probably be called like 20 minutes after the polls close (in a race between two progressives). More interesting are the city council races - it's possible Boston could get a city council where 5 of the 13 members are women of color, including one in a district where the traditional councilor is an Italian-American man from the North End or East Boston. We might also get a literal clown as a councilor, although his chances are a bit (OK, a lot) lower.
posted by adamg at 6:52 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]


Look I'm not going to let this absurd assertion pass. How dare you insinuate that Mike McGinn is politically relevant? How dare you?!

McGinn was relevant in this conversation... until he faded as his base fragmented between the top four. But you take him out, there would have been another few thousand votes for Oliver to go after.
posted by dw at 7:23 PM on November 6


> McGinn was relevant in this conversation... until he faded as his base fragmented between the top four. But you take him out, there would have been another few thousand votes for Oliver to go after.

okay mostly I was just funning about how foolish McGinn's run this time around was.

I don't think, though, that the analysis breaks down that easily. Mainly, I suspect that McGinn was chiefly pulling votes from Durkan rather than Oliver, largely because he tried to position himself this time around as a lesser-Seattle nostalgia candidate — hence the absurd "Keep Seattle" slogan. Mike may have been the antiestablishment candidate in 2009, but the political terrain in Seattle has shifted a lot since 2009.

(correct me if the precinct-by-precinct totals don't seem to bear out the hypothesis that the modal McGinn 2017 supporter was relatively conservative.)
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 7:53 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]


I'm headed out the door to spend the day campaigning for Cliff Hyra and Jake Crocker in Richmond. Hope I don't get too soaked!
posted by Jacqueline at 3:15 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Ah! Election Day. Or as we call it in Puerto Rico: Passover.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:52 AM on November 7 [29 favorites]


Couple brief notes on Philly races:

As our departing DA heads to prison, the race for DA between super-left Krasner and Philly-Republican* Grossman is terrifyingly close. This is a weird race, but could be a fascinating bellwether -- Krasner was a surprising win in the spring, and represents a massive shift to the left even in such a Democratic stronghold as Philly. For an R to even be in contention in the general is strange, though, and speaks to the needle that must be threaded that is Philadelphia...

*she was a Dem until like 2012?

Lots of judges up, and the PA Bar Association has made their recommendations, linked earlier in this thread. I'd like to make a special plea to vote Ceisler for Commonwealth Court -- it means Philly will finally have a judge on a little-known, surprisingly powerful court! Also, she's incredibly intelligent and very, very good at her job. Her campaigning has been great -- she really gets down to what the Commonwealth court does, and how she can help Philly on it.

(also i used to babysit her kids and I have a really strong memory of her clearly and concisely explaining to me what it meant when Clinton was impeached and how it differed from Nixon and basically I would go into battle for this woman if she asked.)
posted by kalimac at 5:06 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]


It was busy at my polling place in a heavily Democratic precinct in VA this morning. I had to stand in line to put my ballot in the scanner. I hope this bodes well for the outcome.
posted by nangar at 5:44 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Election day report from our Police Training Academy precinct in Richmond VA: Short line at 7:30 a.m., including a random run-in with an across the street neighbor. Still too many tables to stop at before needing to wait in line again for an unoccupied voting booth. Using an iPad camera to scan the bar code on the back of my driver's license is a new trick this year, I see. There were enough ballot items to require both sides of the ballot sheet, with the last ballot item featuring a ridiculously long preamble that included multiple MLK Jr. quotes.
posted by emelenjr at 5:48 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I voted in Northern Virginia. Much smaller lines than last year which is to be expected. Now its time to spend the day refreshing Mefi and keeping my fingers crossed. Sorry work.
posted by BigVACub at 6:11 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I realized today that the Judge Woodruff that I voted for today for PA Supreme Court Justice is the same Duane Woodruff who played as a cornerback for the Steelers for 12 years.
posted by octothorpe at 6:58 AM on November 7


Yeah, I think there's hope that might net him a few SW PA votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:19 AM on November 7


Waiting while my car gets serviced, the TV just played an ad for Justin Fairfax touting his cop career as a prosecutor and endorsement by Virginia cop groups. Really rubbing my nose in this "no alternative” thing.
posted by indubitable at 7:23 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Voted on my way into work this morning, around 7:45 AM. South Philadelphia. Granted they divide up my polling area into different rooms, but the workers in my room said I was only the 7th person so far. That makes me sad.
posted by lazaruslong at 7:29 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Voted this morning in Arlington VA. Traffic was substantially heavier than in a normal gubernatorial election (and also heavier than last year). Hope we're able to prove that we're a better state than Ed Gillepsie thinks we are.
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:36 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]


This is the first time my husband and I voted in an odd-year election, and we're going to do it from now on. I was vote number 144 at my St. Paul precinct. It was definitely not as busy as a Presidential election year (last year we crammed in there and the line snaked around on itself), but there was a steady trickle of people coming in and out as of 8:30 AM. We might be getting our first African-American mayor, and that'd be nice.
posted by castlebravo at 8:05 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Fantastic post, but I will never watch live returns come in again after last year. My new election night tradition will be going to a movie in the evening and trying to forget about reality for a few hours (this year it shall be Thor Ragnarok The Adventures of Loki and his brother Thor, Part the Third). I just hope that when the movie is over, I can feel more optimistic about my state and my country than I have these past twelve months.

My girlfriend and I went to see a special Election Night screening of Idiocracy last year confident that President-Elect Clinton would be waiting for us afterward. So just be careful which movie you pick lest you wander into a Twilight Zone climax.
posted by Servo5678 at 8:10 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


88th in my ward in my small town. I wrote myself in on all of the unopposed races, so I may have five jobs tomorrow.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 AM on November 7 [54 favorites]


In Pennsylvania there is a ballot question that hasn't gotten a lot of press but is very important. To quote an email from Tuesdays with Toomey*:

"Don’t forget to vote NO on the ballot question about amending the Homestead Property Tax Assessment, which is being presented as a good thing: elimination of property taxes with no consequence. However, the proposal fails to explain the impact of eliminating the tax: increased income and sales tax, you’ll still have to pay the portion of property taxes that finances local government, and it would give the state control of distribution of funds, ensuring that PA’s already unfair system of funding education remains unfair." It would also end of gutting school funding.

*A group I'm involved with that rallies in front of Toomey's office across the state every week to tell him to start doing his damn job and represent his constituents, not his billionaire donors.
posted by mcduff at 8:26 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I am wearing an "I Voted" sticker even though the most dangerous vote on my ballot was which of the 9 Democrats running for mayor would win. There does not appear to be an R on that ballot. Except for one park board candidate, who I immediately dismissed once I saw his endorsement - I will not vote Republican for dog catcher, I'd rather vote for the "Rainbows Butterflies Unicorns" party candidate. I can't do it now that the Republicans have become the party of "can't, don't, shan't, won't", "fuck you, got mine", and "love Jesus or leave America". It started with W, it got worse from there, they drove all of the reasonable, rational people out of the party, and handed the steering wheel to the Fox News crowd. Who promptly drove the country into a tree, blaming the Ds for the accident.
posted by caution live frogs at 8:31 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I realized today that the Judge Woodruff that I voted for today for PA Supreme Court Justice is the same Duane Woodruff who played as a cornerback for the Steelers for 12 years.

Holy shit, from Wikipedia:
During his NFL career, Woodruff obtained his Juris Doctor (1988) from Duquesne University School of Law, and became an associate attorney of the Meyer Darragh law firm, having the unprecedented distinction of practicing law and playing in the NFL simultaneously for 3 years.
That's incredible.
posted by Existential Dread at 8:45 AM on November 7 [26 favorites]




I'd rather vote for the "Rainbows Butterflies Unicorns" party candidate.
I work with him and he would be better than any R, in my opinion. He moved to this state partly due to the leftist traditions and people like Wellstone.
posted by soelo at 8:54 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Hey, smarter friends: what do we think about Proposal 2 in New York State? That's the one that hits pensions to criminals in public positions.
posted by lauranesson at 8:59 AM on November 7


The Guardian: Northam also insisted that he would try to work with Trump on issues of mutual agreement like “building up the military”. When asked how he would work with someone he had so pointedly attacked, the Democratic candidate said: “I’m a neurologist, so I’m used to dealing with a lot of different minds – and even being a pediatric neurologist, that gives me more perspective.”
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:00 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Hey, smarter friends: what do we think about Proposal 2 in New York State? That's the one that hits pensions to criminals in public positions.

I voted no for the reasons Josh Barro laid out.
posted by lalex at 9:02 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


I got in line at 7:20 in Society Hill in Philadelphia and I was number 30. Pretty strong turnout in my ward although not nearly as high as last year.

I'm really hoping Krasner wins DA. I know there are concerns about his ability to work with the police but for me, the district attorney not being cozy with the FOP is a plus not a minus.
posted by nolnacs at 9:04 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Thanks for sharing, lalex, I will have have to consider that. I have only heard of people supporting Prop 2, like League of Women Voters and NYPIRG. I'm on various political mailing lists whose authors also seemed to be for it, including Councilmember Brad Lander.
posted by ferret branca at 9:07 AM on November 7


(I am not a huge fan of Barro but I love "boring and formalistic reasons related to due process"!)
posted by ferret branca at 9:10 AM on November 7


Grain of salt, but according to a pollwatcher acquaintance, at least 650 have voted at their deep blue Arlington polling place as of noon.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:13 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Actually, I could use good advice on the other two NYS ones: the constitutional convention is a no? Proposal three is confusing and it seems like yes?
posted by lauranesson at 9:15 AM on November 7


I have only heard of people supporting Prop 2

Certainly I think this is an issue on which reasonable people can disagree! Personally, I have increasing general concerns about the breadth and scope of the penalties and punishments available to law enforcement/prosecution.
posted by lalex at 9:16 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


(Also, it is just ridiculous that all of these rely on people flipping over a piece of paper.)
posted by lauranesson at 9:17 AM on November 7


I voted in upstate NY this morning.

I voted yes on the land bank - it seems like sensible public policy.

I voted no on the convention, but reluctantly, and could have gone the other way. It just feels too unsettled right now, and I don't feel like dealing with yet another can of worms.

I voted for all the Democrats running unopposed in my town, but on the Workers line where possible. And I wrote in someone instead of voting for the one Republican running unopposed (???) for town judge, because the Republican party is currently insane, in spite of having some maybe sane members.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:20 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


hahaha after I voted this morning I meant to come in here and tell everyone to FLIP OVER THEIR BALLOTS.

Also, New Yorkers! You have a sticker honoring women's suffrage available to you today! Collect them all!
posted by lalex at 9:21 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]


> In Pennsylvania there is a ballot question that hasn't gotten a lot of press but is very important. To quote an email from Tuesdays with Toomey*:

Thanks. I vote "no" on all ballot measures, because ballot measures are stupid, but I'll vote "no" extra hard on this one.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:22 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I echo RedOrGreen's thoughts exactly on the other two measures on the New York ballot.
posted by lalex at 9:24 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


My girlfriend and I went to see a special Election Night screening of Idiocracy last year confident that President-Elect Clinton would be waiting for us afterward. So just be careful which movie you pick lest you wander into a Twilight Zone climax.

I'll never trust a poll again and I'm not confident of anything. I just don't want to drive myself crazy watching the returns come in. If we win, the resistance continues. If we don't, the resistance continues.
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:27 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]


My NYC polling place (Borough Hall in Brooklyn) told/reminded me to flip over my ballot to vote on the questions on the back.

I voted for all three questions - I get the concern around a convention but think its a rare opportunity and voted yes although I fully expect it to fail, I understand the property argument for not clawing back pension but if they were "earned" while the individual was defrauding the government/people in their public capacity I don't have a major issue with it (if I was stealing from my employer id fully expect their contributions to my 401k to be part of their claim against me), I voted for the land bank which I think will also fail because people have been inundated with Vote No messaging on the convention.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:28 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Yeah, for the convention I sadly feel too pessimistic about the state of politics to vote for it. A lot of groups I respect recommend a no vote, including NYCLU, Planned Parenthood, and Legal Aid. (RIP, Gothamist.) There are great arguments in favor though! I really like Ross Barkan's. For what it's worth, conservatives are pretty against it as far as I can tell, but again, my pessimism knows no bounds. One of the pieces I read points out that voters have a hard time mustering up enthusiasm and knowledge about voting for 3 propositions; what would happen if they have to vote for a ton of individual amendments?

I think most people are pretty into Prop 3; I plan to vote yes myself.
posted by ferret branca at 9:31 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I think most people are pretty into Prop 3; I plan to vote yes myself.

You mean the land bank account? I can hardly believe it, but it seems like the rare policy proposal that offers an elegant solution that benefits residents while continuing to protect the natural environment. There must be a catch.
posted by lalex at 9:36 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Actually, I could use good advice on the other two NYS ones: the constitutional convention is a no? Proposal three is confusing and it seems like yes?

Constitutional convention is a no because it's going to mean whateverthefuck the people who are elected as delegates want it to mean. Barro is wrong about it forcing difficult and important conversations and instead it will just mean an extended period of having assholes screaming about abortion and queers and immigrants as if they were offering respectable opinions instead of verbal garbage. Groups end up projecting whatever they want as possible in a convention but whatever it ended up doing would be fractally horrible because it's 2017.

I'll be voting against the land bank because I expect it to be routinely and egregiously abused by developers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:40 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


lalex: I know, right! Highly suspicious.
posted by ferret branca at 9:40 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


My sister voted this morning in Richmond. First off-year election she has voted in which is a good sign. On the other hand, most voters probably don't have an asshole brother doggedly hounding them via text every couple of hours for a week leading up to the election such that they finally snap and send a picture of the polling place just to get left alone.

Clearly my tactics work.
posted by Justinian at 9:41 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]


What she doesn't realize is that this just encourages me for next time.
posted by Justinian at 9:42 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]


Also, New Yorkers! You have a sticker honoring women's suffrage available to you today! Collect them all!

Got the MTAish one from the person who gave me my ballot, but saw the suffrage ones at the info desk on the way out so grabbed one.
posted by chris24 at 9:48 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Pretty sure Gillespie was never one of the good guys, but Egg is hoping he loses.

@Evan_McMullin
[email protected] was one of the good guys, but now he peddles fear and white nationalism. It’s better for VA and America that he not prevail.
posted by chris24 at 9:50 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]




Addendum to Texas ballot: I'm voting against Proposition 6 because, all other arguments aside, it seems monumentally petty to give widow/ers of first responders KIA a tax break on their houses only until the widow/er remarries. If you want to say "sorry about your dead spouse" by giving the survivors a tax break, just give them the tax break, don't throw in the "until you get a new spouse" bit like the survivor is collecting unemployment until they can get a replacement spouse.
posted by nicebookrack at 10:04 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]


TX elections are always fun in state-and-local-politics classes as ways to demonstrate the dumb shit that ends up in state constitutions. Because obviously you need to write the requirements for home equity loans right into the constitution, only barbarian savages would leave that as statute law.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:12 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


ugghhhhhhh is anyone else having a traumatic memory reaction to Nate Cohn starting to put up those godforsaken prediction dials?
posted by lalex at 10:13 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


> ugghhhhhhh is anyone else having a traumatic memory reaction to Nate Cohn starting to put up those godforsaken prediction dials?

TW: image of a prediction dial
posted by tonycpsu at 10:18 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I won't know anything of what happens in the elections until tomorrow. My house hasn't had internet since Maria (September 20).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:32 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Voted this morning, and had to wait a few minutes to get processed and then find a booth. A good sign! Usual repub. stooge wasn't passing out the republican voting sheet, and a herd of teens were handing out the democrat ones. Only one camo MAGA hat seen, but I'm sure he's going to be voted down strongly by the people waiting in line. Even the old white guy in the blazer was holding the Dem flyer.

My only issue? The local school's PTA doesn't do a bake sale out front. I want voting day brownies for breakfast!
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 10:50 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Hermeowne Grangepurr can you please explain more about these party flyers youre talking about? what state/municipality are you voting in? this is not something im familiar with.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:54 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


After years of being told that we couldn't get stickers because it would be like getting paid to vote, I walked out of my polling location with a .
posted by
xyzzy at 10:54 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Is there a reliable Democratic bar in Richmond in which to watch the returns tonight?
posted by jointhedance at 10:56 AM on November 7


My only issue? The local school's PTA doesn't do a bake sale out front. I want voting day brownies for breakfast!

oh dang it has been years since i had a voting location with a bake sale. i'm both happy to hear it is still a tradition in places and jealous that it is not a tradition near me...
posted by halation at 11:04 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Hermeowne Grangepurr can you please explain more about these party flyers youre talking about? what state/municipality are you voting in? this is not something im familiar with.

Are there places where you don't get party flyers? (I suppose there must be, if you're asking).

I can't speak for Hermeowne Grangepurr, but here in Pennsylvania there's a bar on electioneering at polling places -- where 'at polling places' is defined as 'within ten feet of the door of, or entrance to, a polling place.' So inside the polling place, there's a mix of election officials and partisan poll watchers, none of whom are allowed to endorse candidates (or wear clothing that endorses candidates). Outside of the polling place -- which is to say, right before you go through the doors to get into the polling place, or, depending on how the building is laid out, right outside the front doors -- there's usually a least one member of the two major parties handing out either sample ballots (listing who the local party apparatus endorses), or flyers endorsing individual candidates. There are sometimes also individuals handing out flyers for individual candidates, or other drumming up support -- I met one of the local candidates for DA during the primary election, because they were spending the day personally going from polling place to polling place.

It tends to matter more for primaries and ballot measures, insofar as the voting booths here do let you vote a straight party ticket, so the distinction in endorsement between different Democrats/Republicans matters more than does the distinction between parties. I've known people who just grabbed a sample ballot as they went into the door and followed those suggestions.
posted by cjelli at 11:10 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]


This alert from the ACLU is deeply unsettling:
??We are getting reports of calls to Virginia voters falsely saying that their polling place has changed. ??

If you receive a call:
??Confirm your polling place at https://www.elections.virginia.gov/

?? Report it to @ACLUVA at 804-644-8080
#ElectionDay #vagov
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:21 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]


I've voted in Minn, CA, and NYC and have never been handed a sample ballot or party slate on my way into a polling place.

As you note candidates are marked by which party (parties in the case of NY) they are running for - ive gotten individual candidates reps handing out info/encouraging votes, perhaps because ive only voted in heavily one-sided districts?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:32 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Alexandria, VA is reporting that 36% of "active" voters had cast ballots by noon. This is nice uptick from 2013, when noon turnout was 28%.

Those are great numbers, given that Virginia does not have early voting, and does not make it easy to vote absentee.

(FWIW: Alexandria is in a very safe D district near DC.)
posted by schmod at 11:32 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Cjelli has it, though we are not in PA. (I'm a little cagey about my location, but there's important big race here!) It's basically a photocopied sheet of paper with a sample ballot and the party's suggested votes filled in. They have to be x many feet away from the door of the polling location, and I'm sure are governed by other rules, but it was mostly pre-voting teens with a parent who were handing out flyers and chatting with people they knew. The local Democrats also sent at least two mailers to our house with the example ballot, but they are usually on the ball in this area.

Also, shout out to the nice high school kid who was checking names. Way to do your civic duty, kid!
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 11:35 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Those are great numbers, given that Virginia does not have early voting

Is there a distinction between in-person absentee voting and early voting?
posted by Justinian at 11:37 AM on November 7


All I had was 2 city council at-large seats and mayor in my Midwest town of 27,000. no party affiliations are put on the ballot.

The local paper's "coverage" of the candidates was next to useless.

The "meet the candidates" forum was of course held at 10:00 am on a weekday and no transcripts were released.

didn't look like any POC ran, even though at least 20% of the town is of Mexican descent.

I voted non-incumbent for Mayor. Both council seats I voted for a female candidate (out of 5 total candidates). The Tea Partiers have had a hold on the city for the past several years, and I hope it turns around soon.

Didn't have to wait, but there seemed to be a steady trickle of voters. I was #222 on the machine when I put my ballot in at around 12:45.
posted by ArgentCorvid at 11:39 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I'm mainly comparing VA to DC. DC lets you vote early in-person, or by mail for no reason. Just show up or request a ballot.

AFAIK, Virginia does not have in-person early voting, and requires you to provide justification for why you're going to vote by mail. It's a much bigger hassle, and it seems like very few people do it.

Apologies if I've conflated a technical term here.
posted by schmod at 11:42 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Hm, and Arlington has 31% at noon, and Fairfax County is 30.6% (out of 684k eligible voters) . Fairfax also has bake sales!
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 11:43 AM on November 7


Charlottesville is reporting that 31% of registered voters in the city had voted by 1:00pm today. In 2013, which set the previous record for turnout in an off-year election, we only reached this figure by 4:00pm. In the 2009 governor's race, only 37% of registered voters voted the entire day. It looks like we're well on our way to setting a new record for voter turn-out in an off year, and my impression that my polling place was busier than usual this morning wasn't off at all.
posted by nangar at 11:43 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Ahhh, I just visited the NY Times live Virginia elections results page (nothing posted yet) and the visual design gave me a flashback to monitoring the results of the election a year ago. shudder
posted by exogenous at 11:45 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Is there a distinction between in-person absentee voting and early voting?

The numbers I've seen from the various Virginia counties today have included all votes: in-person, absentee, etc.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:46 AM on November 7


Ahhh, I just visited the NY Times live Virginia elections results page (nothing posted yet) and the visual design gave me a flashback to monitoring the results of the election a year ago. shudder

Hah. I bookmarked this page earlier under the name PTSD widget.
posted by Justinian at 11:59 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]


Our newspaper is reporting that (for Minneapolis, at least) while in-person voting activity today seems about average for an off year, early or absentee voting this year was through the roof: ~12,000 votes this year, compared to ~5,000 early votes in 2013. Minneapolis says these early & absentee numbers are more typical of what they'd see for a midterm election, not municipal.
posted by castlebravo at 12:00 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Here in the 'burbs of Kansas City, Misery^Missouri, local Indivisible Leader Hilary Shields is running against two (both fairly terrible) Republicans (one running as an Independent) for state Senate in my neighboring district. I haven't seen any polling on the race, but I'm hoping the dude running as an Independent helps to divide the awful-people vote. We'll see. It's a fairly suburban+rural district, so I'm dubious about how someone named Hillary will do. *sigh*
posted by jferg at 12:04 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Today, I cast my first vote as a US citizen. Franchise, heck yeah!

I'll be voting against the land bank because I expect it to be routinely and egregiously abused by developers.

The amendment is fairly well constrained, and seems to be supported by the right people, (e.g. Nature Conservancy, etc). I do have a question about it, though.

Looking at the text and summary on Ballotpedia, towns can use the land bank when they have no viable alternative to forest preserve land when undertaking four specific projects.
(1) to address bridge hazards or safety on specified highways; (2) to eliminate the hazards of dangerous curves and grades on specified highways; (3) to relocate, reconstruct, and maintain highways; and (4) for water wells and necessary related accessories located within 530 feet of a specified highway, where needed to meet drinking water quality standards.
Seems pretty sensible so far. It also permits (emphasis added)
public utility lines, limited to electric, telephone, broadband, water or sewer lines as defined in law… and bicycle paths
along existing highways. Which brings me to my question - the amendment specifically calls out in a kind of postscript that it shall not include the construction of any new intrastate natural gas or oil pipelines that have not received all necessary state and local permits and authorizations as of June first, two thousand sixteen. Natural gas or oil pipelines aren't electric, telephone, broadband, water or sewer, are they? If not, what's that bit doing there? Is this a sneaky formulation that allows them to build a gas pipeline anyway?
posted by zamboni at 12:28 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Does anyone know an org in Northern Virginia where I can offer to drive people to the polls this afternoon/evening?
posted by brilliantine at 12:30 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I've voted in Minn, CA, and NYC and have never been handed a sample ballot or party slate on my way into a polling place.

I have voted in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and -- while we generally have to push through a crowd of local candidates' outstretched hands in order to lunge through the buffer zone like a NFL player thrusting the ball into the end zone -- I can't recall ever having been handed a sheet with suggestions on how to vote.

There are always plenty of signs crowded right up to the 50' high water mark of the buffer, too, but nothing handed to me.

The ACLU adds this about printed materials while you are voting in Little Rhodey:
Q. Can I take election materials with me into my polling place?
A. Yes, as long as they’re for your own use. Examples include a sample ballot, a voter guide, or this brochure. If you leave immediately after voting, you can also wear political buttons or clothing in the polling place. But you’re not allowed to distribute campaign materials within 50 feet of your polling place.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:40 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I'm getting a Nov '16 vibe from reports. Heavy turnout among rural white (ie Gillespie) voters, soft AA turnout (VERY heavy Northam voters). Will need massive turnout in NoVa if that's the case.
posted by Justinian at 1:06 PM on November 7


My crossed-fingers theory is that African Americans in VA are more likely to work the sorts of jobs you can't leave to go vote, and vote in higher proportions after work than white voters. This is based on my belief that I really want Northam to win.
posted by Justinian at 1:13 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


One change in the NYT results tracking page compared to 2016: The “estimated margin” dial is still there, but the “probability of winning” dial has been removed. On Twitter, the NYT polling/election correspondent Nate Cohn explains that this is because expected margin plus confidence interval is less volatile and easier to intepret correctly for more people.

And no, the needle won't jitter.
posted by mbrubeck at 1:23 PM on November 7


Justinian, where are you getting that? Arlington is on track to blow past its 2013 turnout at 3 pm (49% in 2013, vs 48% at 3 pm, and there are more voters now). Alexandria is also posting strong turnout for an off year. And VA did go to Clinton last year, primarily on NOVA's turnout.
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 1:25 PM on November 7




I saw that too but I'm trying to remain numb calm
posted by lalex at 1:41 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Don Palmer @VotingGuy on Twitter is reporting turnout stats from various localities in Virginia. So far, they look good for an off-year election. In Albermarle County, which includes suburbs of Charlottesville, 32% of registered voters had voted by 1:00pm. One precinct in the county ran out of ballots and had to get more before 1:00pm. We're not not even into stats from the after-work voter rush yet.
posted by nangar at 1:51 PM on November 7


> City of Petersburg, heavy Afr-Am community, looking soft on turnout. Only about 5,200 voted so far, 8,300 cast vote for Gov in 2013

I'm not sure that's bad. Those numbers are as of noon.
posted by nangar at 2:04 PM on November 7


Twitter would not lie to me?
posted by Justinian at 2:06 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Which brings me to my question - the amendment specifically calls out in a kind of postscript that it shall not include the construction of any new intrastate natural gas or oil pipelines that have not received all necessary state and local permits and authorizations as of June first, two thousand sixteen. Natural gas or oil pipelines aren't electric, telephone, broadband, water or sewer, are they? If not, what's that bit doing there? Is this a sneaky formulation that allows them to build a gas pipeline anyway?

A blog run by an offshoot of the Independent Petroleum Association of America is calling it a ban on new pipeline construction.
posted by melissasaurus at 2:11 PM on November 7


It's small-town Iowa and it's only mayor and two at-large city council seats but I was still disheartened by being voter #14 at my polling location 75 minutes after the polls opened. Workers and watchers outnumbered voters 10 - 1 when I was there. And this was a two precincts voting in a single location.

I really wish voting was both a national holiday and mandatory.
posted by Fezboy! at 2:12 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


My suburb of Seattle has a candidate for city council who's openly a former opioid addict, Jin-Ah Kim. She doesn't have much experience, but surely a suburban city council is a good place for a woman to start a political career.
posted by The corpse in the library at 2:18 PM on November 7


Oh, they are starting with the haruspicy exit polls on MSNBC now. It's like a train crash. You know you shouldn't stare but you can't help it.
posted by Justinian at 2:20 PM on November 7


I can't turn the TV on rn. TELL US.
posted by lalex at 2:21 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Small city Iowa here, about to go down to vote for city council... 6 candidates, 3 positions and really I can only find solid info on two of them, one a solid Dem (I mean technically it's a nonpartisan race but...) so he's a yes, the other kind of Trumpy so he's a no... and that leaves four candidates I don't have reliable info on because their profiles in the paper might as well not exist, it's all the same boilerplate candidate stuff that means nothing. Well, one guy suspiciously seems like he's just running because he's cranky about construction delays, but other than that nothing of substance. I think I'm just gonna have to vote for the one known good and that's all, I can't risk voting for someone awful because they snuck in under a vague profile in the paper.
posted by jason_steakums at 2:22 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Husband and I just voted in Roanoke, VA about an hour ago. I was prepared to stand in a long line in the rain-- brought a book and had entertainment cued up on my phone. We were the only two there besides the volunteers. I sincerely hope that we were there during a lull in activity, because damn. I've never seen such a dead polling place. Last year we helped vote in Cooper in NC, this year I hope we can help vote in Northam. If you're in VA and haven't voted, go do it right this minute.
posted by Heretic at 2:22 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I’ll be teaching until around 9pm Eastern tonight. Is there any point in surreptitiously checking my alerts until then? Especially VA gov?
posted by Barack Spinoza at 2:23 PM on November 7


VA polls close at 7pm.
posted by lalex at 2:24 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I can't turn the TV on rn. TELL US.

Ok, you want the entrail reading? We will read some entrails.

The exits have the electorate a couple points more educated than in 2013. A couple points more against the President than in 2013. And a couple points more in approval of the outgoing governor than in 2013. All of those are very slightly in Northam's favor.
posted by Justinian at 2:24 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


With over 2 hours to go (at time of tweet), Alexandria was at 47% turnout (42,449 out of 90,317). In 2013, the total turnout was 50% (41,452 out of 83,192).
posted by chris24 at 2:27 PM on November 7


The entrails say that 36% of VA voters want the Confederate monuments removed while 60% want them left in place.

This is why the Democrats are in a tough spot. They must be able to win in places where solid majorities of voters hold views we find... problematic. You can't win with 36%.
posted by Justinian at 2:34 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Down here in Florida my district only had to vote for city commissioner. I didn't do the homework in advance because I knew I would just vote for the Democratic candidate. I get into the voting booth and discover that this is a nonpartisan office so there's no helpful (D) next to any of the names. I had to do some on-the-spot research on my phone to see who to vote for. It was easier than I'd expected. The incumbent is pro-Confederacy.
posted by Servo5678 at 2:36 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


From a Washington Post reporter on Twitter:
Highlights from preliminary exit VA poll results per @sfcpoll

1) Just over 4 in 10 voters approve of Trump
2) ~Half say Trump's not a factor in vote, but among those who do, twice as many wanted to express opposition
3) Just under 4 in 10 listed health care as top issue
I don't want to commit the sin of optimism in these terrible times, but that sounds vaguely hopeful to me.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:44 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


@ElectProject retweeted Fairfax County Votes
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go
@fairfaxvotes
5 p.m. estimated voter turnout is 39.1% + estimated absentee at 7.7% = 46.8%. About 90 minutes to get to poll by 7 p.m. Drive safely please!
- Final turnout in 2013 was 46.8 percent including absentee https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1113.pdf
posted by chris24 at 2:46 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


I want to warn everyone to expect an early Gillespie lead due to the way VA precincts typically report.
posted by lalex at 2:57 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Good luck, sane Americans. I know you all need some wins today. I hope you get them!
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:00 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Yes, Fairfax always comes in late. For comparison - they called VA for Hillary when Trump still had the lead in the count, because they knew what would happen in NoVa (she ended up winning by 5).
posted by Chrysostom at 3:02 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


So, I worked as a poll watcher for my friend running for borough council today. It was nice to feel useful.

We actually had really good D turnout, I think we may pick up a few council seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:02 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I want to warn everyone to expect an early Gillespie lead due to the way VA precincts typically report.

Roughly: rural Virginia, Norfolk/Hampton Roads, Richmond, Arlington/Alexandria, Loudon and DC far exurbs, and finally Fairfax proper.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:03 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I sent my 100 postcards to District 42 in VA, so that's MY district now, and I'm so anxious about it here in RI. I really, really want Kathy Tran to win. Northam, too, but I feel personally invested in Tran.
posted by Ruki at 3:24 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


I can already call the results of 32 Virginia House of Delegates races, btw. Because they weren't contested.

9 Rs and 23 Ds will automatically keep their seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:33 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Just voted in PA. Thirty-three percent turnout in our Ward, with an hour left to vote, in bad weather. Not bad for an off year, but still feels lower than it should be.
posted by cjelli at 3:38 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


On a train after voting in my last NYC election. I’d been thinking of moving back to TN for years. The election really made me pull the strings to make it happen. Too many progressive Southerners leave the South. And instead on going to a blue dot like Nashville, my college town, my partner and I are taking our two blue votes to my hometown, Bristol. There’s work to be done there. I’m coming for you, Marsha Blackburn.
posted by kimdog at 3:40 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]


Live coverage pages up and running: posted by mbrubeck at 3:43 PM on November 7


I really, really want Kathy Tran to win.

Tran buds!
posted by contraption at 3:43 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Yay Team Tran!!
posted by Room 641-A at 3:47 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I just went and voted in St. Paul's mayoral election and school board. Lots of young people, which is encouraging. Like castlebravo said up-thread, we might be electing our first AA mayor. I went to high school with Melvin and my mom has worked with his mom (public service) and dad (LEO) for years. I'm keeping my hopes tempered though. Remembering how hopeful and excited I was last time I was walking out of my polling spot, practically skipping with my daughter, thinking the nightmare was almost over...*shudder*
posted by Bacon Bit at 3:52 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


And so we meet again, U.S. general election.

I was monstrously busy at work today, but voted first thing. Nothing much of consequence in my district other than an utterly stupid state ballot measure regarding property taxes, and a veddddy eenteresting run for district magisterial judge by a young lawyer who tried for the Dem endorsement, didn't get it, and then ran as an independent with the help of the local DSA. His opponent is an incumbent and member of a huge local political family (one state senator and one state assemblyman in the immediate family), but he's making a serious go of it and I'm curious how much you can tip the scale in a local off-year election by just putting your nose to the grindstone and doing the work. I don't expect him to win but I'll be interested to see how close he comes.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:02 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Yay! Steve Kornacki is on MSNBC! He's fun.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 4:03 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


I am not normally one for memes, but this one got me right in - as my 2014 self would say - the feels. I give you:

Me on election day 2016 versus me on election day 2017

I am partial to this iteration because of its "we will fight you on the beaches, motherfucker" vibe.
posted by Frowner at 4:03 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


STL city had one issue today. A proposition for a sales tax increase to give our police a raise. LOL NO.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 4:04 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


I've seen an enormous amount of ignorant ugliness on social media today in regards to the NJ election. I was hopeful that Murphy would run away with it, but I guess I shouldn't underestimate the rabid racists.
posted by MsVader at 4:05 PM on November 7


Chrysostom,

Excellent breakdown! Thanks!
posted by effugas at 4:09 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I am pleased with all of the good stuff that Murphy is promising to push. NJ Dems are often machine types, so this is good to hear.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:11 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


More entrails: Gillespie up 8 among men, Northam up 19 among women.

I'm starting to think that men are kinda terrible?
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 7 [28 favorites]


STL city had one issue today. A proposition for a sales tax increase to give our police a raise. LOL NO.

I am a progressive person who thinks police should be paid more. It's a hard job. It's a dangerous job. We, as a society, need policing to be a career that draws responsible, capable people, rather than power tripping bullies, and part of that is providing competitive compensation that attracts qualified candidates.
posted by chrchr at 4:12 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


In my district (upstate NY) there were the state ballot measures and some local offices. I had to vote for the middle-of-the-road Democrat for county legislature because the young, inspiring lefty candidate dropped out of the race after admitting to sexual assault. It's milkshake ducks all the way down, I guess.
posted by zeptoweasel at 4:12 PM on November 7


RITUALISTIC INVOCATION OF THE FACT THAT EXITS ARE OFTEN FAULTY

That said, early exits look good for Northam - white vote 68%, down from 72% in 2013.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:14 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


More entrails: Gillespie up 8 among men, Northam up 19 among women.

Really feels like we should revoke men's right to vote for 144 years just to keep the balance even. By 2161 women will hopefully have sorted things out.
posted by 0xFCAF at 4:16 PM on November 7 [35 favorites]


I am a progressive person who thinks police should be paid more.

Same. Pay people more and hold them to a higher standard. Paying people less and trying to hold them to a higher standard is not a good plan.
posted by bongo_x at 4:16 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


White evangelics went for Gillespie 80-20. Maybe its just white evangelicals who are terrible and not men in general? *grasps straws*
posted by Justinian at 4:17 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


mm pretty sure it's both
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:19 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


We can throw out a random ~16% of the white vote while we're at it, too. Really, just anything, please, anything.
posted by 0xFCAF at 4:20 PM on November 7


EXIT POLL WARNING

wrt Northam's 49% with white college grads, @RonBrownstein: "Neither Obama 12, McAuliffe 13, Warner 14 or Clinton 16 topped 45% w/col+ whites in VA. If Northam's 49% holds, it's a Trump-era shift w/implications for white-collar House districts in 18."
posted by lalex at 4:23 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Twitter jurnos and stat nerds are starting to say Northam might just run away with this thing quickly. All 3 exit polls (grain of salt and whatnot) have him winning 40% of the white vote, which is the whole enchilada.
posted by lattiboy at 4:23 PM on November 7


The NYT needle-meter is back for the VA Gov race. [cw: the NYT needle meter is the worst thing on the internet and is literally terrifying. Also, they haven't counted any votes yet. If you don't want feelings of impending doom, go make a lot of paperclips instead (which will result in feelings of more distant existential doom)]
posted by zachlipton at 4:25 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Wasserman is tweeting up a storm in addition to being on the 538 live chat. I don't always agree with him, but he sure knows what to expect in all of VA's little byways.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:27 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


My feelings about that fucking needle meter would probably be best addressed by a qualified therapist.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:27 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]


omg how is anyone even looking at that twitchy needle again, there is not enough xanax in the world
posted by lalex at 4:27 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


Justinian, on that note: How the right wing hijacked Christian identity (David Myers, Quartz). It had an interesting point about "evangelical Christians" who nevertheless don't actually go to church: they are the ones who are really right-wing and bigoted:
It’s no secret that many self-described “evangelicals” are actually not religiously engaged. During the Republican primaries, Donald Trump’s base was substantially non-church-going “evangelicals.” In a January 2016 American National Elections Studies survey, barely more than one-third of evangelicals who attended church weekly supported Trump, as did more than half of “evangelicals” who rarely attended. These non-attenders were also more likely to agree with racist and anti-Muslim views.
In other words, it seems like Libertarianitis, not just religiosity, is the culprit. They believe that Jesus Saves but ew, church, that's icky. I know there are bigoted churches (hello, Southern Baptist church, founded because of slavery) but the culture of people who are disaffected, resentful, and seething with hate isn't just secular Kids These Days.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:30 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Yeah. *closes window* turns out it was too soon
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:31 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I'm starting to hope. Stop it. Stop hoping. Push it down in a box. Close the box.
posted by Justinian at 4:32 PM on November 7 [35 favorites]


I went down to canvass in VA-50 and am now especially invested. DSA-endorsed challenger Lee Carter is leading GOP majority whip Jackson Miller 56-44 with 25% reporting. *crosses fingers tightly*
posted by galaxy rise at 4:33 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


lalex: "omg how is anyone even looking at that twitchy needle again, there is not enough xanax in the world"

If it helps, they turned off the twitchy figure.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:34 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Rick Kriseman (D) has been reelected as St. Petersburg FL mayor.

@Chris Lee: "Kriseman's win is a significant victory for @FlaDems. It's stunning that ex-Mayor Rick Baker, a popular, moderate R with strong appeal with African-Americans lost here."
posted by lalex at 4:35 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


@Redistrict (Dave Wasserman)
Bull precinct, Buchanan Co., deep in the heart of SWVA's Trump country:

Gillespie: 178
Northam: 37

In 2013, Cuccinelli won 197-55. Gillespie's getting the support level he needs, but not the turnout he needs there.
posted by chris24 at 4:37 PM on November 7


Interesting, polling had Kriseman and Baker neck and neck.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:37 PM on November 7


Btw, vote counts for delegate races straight from the state here.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:38 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


@mmurraypolitics (NBC)
Bad omen for Gillespie: With 98.7% in Chesterfield, it's Gillespie 49.9%, Northam 49.0%

Was Cuccinelli +8 in 2013

--

From earlier about Chesterfield.

@Nate_Cohn
Gillespie has just a nominal lead in Chesterfield with half counted. He probably needed to win by like 10 points. This may not be close.
posted by chris24 at 4:38 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Stop hoping. Push it down in a box. Close the box.

?? Imagine that your brain is made of tiny boxes... and find the box that's hopeful AND CRUSH IT! okay? ??
posted by Meow Face at 4:39 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


I canvassed for Kathy Tran (and Northam, Fairfax, and Herring) on Sunday in Springfield, VA which is one of the few Fairfax areas that goes 50-50. Everyone D had been canvassed to death, and many recited the script back to me. Except for my paralyzing anxiety, it was a good experience, and even the Rs were polite to my 13yo when he took the lead. My only regret is that I was too intimidated to try some of the muslim and vietnamese names. I definitely need to work on being less white.

I really like Tran - she's a solid democrat, pro choice, small children, child refugee, and very good with people. She's the kind of person who finds a problem, thinks through to the solution, and follows through to completion. (I also loved her more progressive AA primary candidate Tilly Blanding who has VERVE. I have a secret fantasy of her her down in Richmond, talking to the blue suited gentlemen from the rural areas, energetically backing them into a corner and upsetting the natural order of things by her presence and charisma.) Never before have I had two such awesome candidates to choose from!

Fingers crossed to flip the 42nd to blue.
posted by Measured Out my Life in Coffeespoons at 4:40 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


@benchmarkpol
For now, all I can say is that exits, demographic voting patterns, and early results in R areas look great for Northam (D).

---

@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
At the moment, Northam is running *8* points above the baseline for a tied election. He has a clear advantage.
posted by chris24 at 4:43 PM on November 7






@Nate_Cohn
Gillespie has just a nominal lead in Chesterfield with half counted. He probably needed to win by like 10 points. This may not be close.


Fingers crossed.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:44 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


whoa. I feel ok, this is weird.
posted by lalex at 4:45 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


it's happening
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I am refusing to believe anything good could be happening.
posted by zachlipton at 4:45 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]


Got off work early today, just in time to watch results roll in. It's so hard to describe how I feel--just...cold and determined. I don't ever want to be so disappointed as I was a year from tomorrow.

*cue a little maudlin reminiscence*

Around this exact time last year, I was hosting a sitting United States Senator at our local campaign office, while the paid staff were out canvassing. Shortly after the Senator left, a real high up for the state campaign said to me "The Senate's not looking good". That little phrase was the start of the worst night.

*end reminiscence*

Anyway, just glad to be among my MeFite friends for this evening!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 4:45 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Keep watching, the House of delegates could legitimately be in play, and that would really be "it's happening" territory.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:46 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Danica Roem is up 53% to 47% over awful Bob Marshall for HD-13 with 85% of the vote counted!
posted by peeedro at 4:48 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


NY Times:

Right now, our most likely estimates span Northam +12 to Northam +0.7. The darker region shows the middle 50 percent of our forecasts. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

Our best guess is that Mr. Northam is currently on track to win the election.

posted by leotrotsky at 4:48 PM on November 7


Danica Roem is ahead 53/46 with 85% reporting!!!
posted by Ruki at 4:49 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]




Damn it, peeedro! Jinx.
posted by Ruki at 4:49 PM on November 7


Prediction markets have shifted to 97% Northam in the last hour. Was 65% yesterday - put away your cake-baking supplies and open up something bubbly.
posted by 0xFCAF at 4:49 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


it just occurred to me that this might be a thread filled with...good news? in a lot of races? not sure how to cope.
posted by lalex at 4:50 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


{volume of internal screaming lowers 10%}
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:50 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 4:50 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Jennifer Carroll Foy in HD-2 up 78-22 with 39% in.

She's a public defender.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:50 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


it's happening
posted by leotrotsky at 4:51 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I would genuinely laugh if Bob Marshall lost his seat
posted by indubitable at 4:51 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Keep watching, the House of delegates could legitimately be in play, and that would really be "it's happening" territory.

don't even say that, you're gonna jinx it.
posted by indubitable at 4:52 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


That Joyce Craig win is a good one.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:52 PM on November 7


CNN is pretending this is still a race and giving terrible Ken Kookinelli the first bite at every take.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:53 PM on November 7


I don't drink, but I do have cake mix. I've never baked a MeFi political cake before. I have pink icing too, I think. It would make me very happy to write For Kathy and Danica on an angel food cake.
posted by Ruki at 4:53 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


The best part is the visible rejection of bullshit racist pandering in the former capital of the Confederacy.

And the fear it puts in all the Republicans looking at an election in 2018.

And the spine it puts in Senate Democrats to stand against this shit, particularly as Republicans need their votes to prevent a government shutdown. Dems need to have a BIG wish list. Not just Dreamers, but support for ACA markets and a goddamn pony.

There's a lot of best parts.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:53 PM on November 7 [36 favorites]


@Dave Wasserman: ""
posted by
lalex at 4:54 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Wasserman: Northam's lead looks decisive enough that it will sweep the entire Dem ticket (Fairfax, Herring) into office. #VAGOV
posted by Chrysostom at 4:54 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Hey!
posted by Chrysostom at 4:55 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Wasserman: Pattern: Gillespie matching Trump's %s in a lot of red strongholds, but not his turnout. Meanwhile, seeing big enthusiasm edge in Dem strongholds.

I hate to start with the takes while we're still counting votes, but is this really as simple as lots of Republicans who couldn't stomach Gillespie's hate staying home while Dems came out to vote against Trumpism?
posted by zachlipton at 4:55 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I prefer Chrysostom's choice of link format, but lalex's attribution and use of quotation marks. How fortunate to have both!
posted by shenderson at 4:57 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


{volume of internal screaming lowers; internal cheering rises 100%}
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:57 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


@Dave Weigel (includes image): "WHOA: Lee Carter, a member of @DemSocialists, is on track to win HD50. Major upset for Democrats." (Carter is running on the Democratic Party line.)

holyshitholyshitholyshit
posted by lalex at 4:57 PM on November 7 [37 favorites]


I just can't get excited. Not until it's over. I have this nightmare vision of Russian AWS servers spinning up and kicking into gear for the remaining counties. I know, that's crazy. But I'm just too scarred from last year.

I look forward to celebrating if it happens.
posted by lazaruslong at 4:57 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Honestly, I'm mostly just relieved, because if Gillespie's appeal to racism strategy had worked, that would have seriously been depressing as hell. And I'm not naive about Virginia, but I want to believe that it's better than that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:57 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


I hate to start with the takes while we're still counting votes, but is this really as simple as lots of Republicans who couldn't stomach Gillespie's hate staying home while Dems came out to vote against Trumpism?

If Democrats voted in midterm and off year elections like they do in presidentials, we'd live in an unrecognizable country.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:58 PM on November 7 [34 favorites]


Results reporting straight from the horse's mouth

also, nice that they make it available in JSON form
posted by indubitable at 4:58 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Oh god. I’m letting myself feel hope. And optimism. Which now triggers fear.

I just want to spin around like the tazmanian devil until I’m too dizzy to read election updates
posted by schadenfrau at 4:59 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Another precinct in (18/20), and Roem is up by 9%!
posted by Tsuga at 4:59 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


HD-10 looks like it'll flip - 75% in, Gooditis up 55-45.

This is like a 3rd tier seat!
posted by Chrysostom at 5:00 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


holy balls is it real
might there be a victory
can
can i learn to love again
posted by halation at 5:00 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Another precinct in (18/20), and Roem is up by 9%!
Justice is rarely more poetic.
posted by Tabitha Someday at 5:01 PM on November 7


What does 3rd tier seat mean?
posted by rabidsegue at 5:01 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Kathy K. L. Tran 54.93%
Lolita I. Mancheno-Smoak 45.00%
Write-In 0.07%

\o/
posted by Room 641-A at 5:01 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


So, um, the House GOP whip in VA has been defeated by a member of the DSA. So there's that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:01 PM on November 7 [83 favorites]


Is there anywhere with a rundown on the house of delegates results? How far are we from its happening. IS IT HAPPENING
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:01 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Harry Enten (538): "Another mayoral race seems to be going to the Democrats. In early returns from Charlotte, North Carolina, Democrat Vi Lyles has a big lead over Republican Kenny Smith."
posted by lalex at 5:01 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I think Roem has it!!
posted by Justinian at 5:02 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


looks like my dem rep is going back to the state house
posted by indubitable at 5:02 PM on November 7


What does 3rd tier seat mean?

Like on the third tier of races that looked like a pickup opportunity. First tier being races that look great.
posted by lalex at 5:03 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Yeah, 3rd tier just in what people thought would flip, nothing official.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:03 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


CNN has called NJ Gov for Murphy (D)
posted by lalex at 5:04 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


Can I be happy? Is this what happy feels like?
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 5:04 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Official Dem GAIN - David Reid picks up HD-32.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:04 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Yay Roem! :D
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 5:04 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Wasserman is calling it for Roem in HD-13!
posted by zachlipton at 5:04 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


CNN reporting that a senior Republican advisor said that tonight was a "crushing" defeat and a total Dem sweep.
posted by Justinian at 5:05 PM on November 7 [21 favorites]


House Delegate Results
posted by Room 641-A at 5:05 PM on November 7


Carter has it in HD-50.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:05 PM on November 7


Sean Trende (RCP): Ds are up on 15 House of Delegates Republicans in Virginia. Need 17. Still early.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:06 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Wasserman also calling VA HD-02 for Jennifer Foy. Dem pickup.
posted by lalex at 5:06 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


The best part of tonight is that Bill Fucking Kristol seems kind of pleased with the projections so far.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:07 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


If Democrats voted in midterm and off year elections like they do in presidentials, we'd live in an unrecognizable country.

That orange fucker may prove to be the best driver of Democratic turnout in the past 50 years.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:07 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


T.D. Strange: If Democrats voted in midterm and off year elections like they do in presidentials, we'd live in an unrecognizable country.

Fucking this. This to the nth power. See what happens when Dems turn out to vote? This is why focusing energy on getting out the vote, and making sure that people can vote, is so important. America is not a center-right nation (Eric Levitz, NYT).

The reason the Republicans are so eager to strip anyone and everyone they can of voting rights is because they are not really popular, and their policies are hella disliked even by their own constituents (see: health care, tax deductions).

So yes - we can do this! I feel better about the Dems and the future than I have in a while.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:07 PM on November 7 [73 favorites]


I have a feeling that the first thing VA GOP are going to do when they ratfuck their way back to power is give NoVA back to DC.
posted by Talez at 5:07 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I hate to start with the takes while we're still counting votes, but is this really as simple as lots of Republicans who couldn't stomach Gillespie's hate staying home while Dems came out to vote against Trumpism?

Sadly - though I'll take the win (TTTCS) - I suspect it's more likely that what we see is the real sleazy hateball shitbirds who were pulling for Steward in the primary aren't sufficiently convinced by Gillespie's 11th hour adoption of race baiting. So they stayed home. I'd wager real money that more bigots couldn't stand to vote for an establishment R moneyman than there were Rs turned off by Gillespie defending traitor statues. 2016 showed us in stark relief that the majority of R voters will put aside ethical flaws in their candidate rather than stay home or vote D.

I am so excited by Roem that I might cry.
posted by phearlez at 5:08 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


*starts reloading Trump Twitter*
posted by Room 641-A at 5:09 PM on November 7


Good night so far. Here's hoping the good news reaches metro Seattle in three hours and we can flip the state Senate.
posted by dw at 5:09 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


NBC just called VA for Northam!
posted by Justinian at 5:09 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


I have a feeling that the first thing VA GOP are going to do when they ratfuck their way back to power is give NoVA back to DC.

Not a chance. They love our money too much. They'll just find a way to redistrict us into 30 foot wide strips that extend all the way to the southern border.
posted by phearlez at 5:09 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I'm stuck at work trying to finish something up and y'all are making me feel so good for staring at this computer for the 7th continuous hour right now
posted by numaner at 5:09 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I have a feeling that the first thing VA GOP are going to do when they ratfuck their way back to power is give NoVA back to DC.

NoVA is where all the money is. No way they give that up.

Also, if Dems have learned anything, it's that voting rights MATTER, and they should be putting all sorts of legislation to prevent disenfranchisement going forward, regardless of who's in power.

edit: ditto phearlez
posted by leotrotsky at 5:10 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Wait wait wait wait wait. Are the Democrats going to have enough numbers in the statehouse to unfuck the districts for 2018 and 2020? Could VA actually be competitive again? I mean Democrats only won the popular vote and picked up 4/11 congressional seats.
posted by Talez at 5:11 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]




Sadly - though I'll take the win (TTTCS)

phearlez, I love you right now!
posted by booksherpa at 5:13 PM on November 7


I think the governor needs to approve VA districting. Which minimizes ratfucking of gerrymanders.

It's still unlikely the Dems pick up the 17 seats to take House control, but it's starting to look like a possibility.

If they did that...they only need one senator to flip or caucus with the Dems, and they'd have unified control.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:13 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]




I've never seen Tucker Carlson this sad.
posted by Rust Moranis at 5:15 PM on November 7 [103 favorites]


I've never seen Tucker Carlson this sad.

you are the hero of this thread.
posted by lalex at 5:16 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


Muphy win in NJ means a bunch of progressive stuff happening.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:16 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


AP and CNN called it for Northam.

I, for one, will not believe it unless I see him sitting in the Governor's office and personally ask him for photo ID.
posted by zachlipton at 5:16 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


ABC just called it for Northam too.
posted by Brainy at 5:16 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Bob Marshall going down to a transwoman is just, ur-poetic? Uber-irony? Mecha-karma? He's been one of the most hateful fucking figures in America for 25 years, really, look at his record on par with Roy Moore. And to get sent packing by Roem :kissemojii:
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:16 PM on November 7 [49 favorites]


Ed Gillespie is in a room right now wondering how the fuck he lost by trying to tie Northam to MS-13 in every possible way.
posted by Talez at 5:17 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Danica Roem being seated in the House of Delegates would fill me with sheer joy. When I came out nearly 15 years ago, it wasn't even a thought on my mind about a trans person being seated in any large legislative body. Now we may very well have someone who ran to show our community's youth that they can succeed "because of their identity, not in spite of it".
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 5:17 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


Dave Wasserman, who is clearly keeping an eye on all levels of VA tonight, calls it for Lee Carter: "BREAKING: In an upset, Lee Carter (D) has unseated Del. Jackson Miller (R) in Manassas's #HD50. Dem pickup."
posted by lalex at 5:17 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


HOW YOU DOING EVERYONE FUCK YEAH NEW JERSEY.
posted by vrakatar at 5:18 PM on November 7 [49 favorites]


Where is Dave Wasserman right now anyway, that he's getting all this info first?
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:19 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Danica Roem will be Va.’s first openly transgender elected official after unseating conservative in House race
The race between Roem, 33, and Marshall, 73, focused on traffic and other local issues in Prince William County but also exposed the nation’s fault lines over gender identity. It pitted a local journalist who began her physical gender transition four years ago against an outspoken social conservative who earlier this year introduced a “bathroom bill” that died in committee.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:19 PM on November 7 [42 favorites]


I've never seen Tucker Carlson this sad.

Please, describe more. I want to see his delicious tears but I don't think I could actually stomach actually putting Fox News on.
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 5:19 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


SPECIAL ELECTION RESULT

Dem GAIN in New Hampshire House Hillsborough 15.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:19 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]




Tom Perez is on with Hayes and sounds very happy. He should be. He's been getting a bunch of shit lately but the party apparatus came through in VA tonight.
posted by Justinian at 5:20 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


OMG, the VA results look awesome. Northam up before NOVA calls in. My gal Kathy Tran is doing well so far too.*knock wood* . *TTTCS* *cross fingers* .
posted by Measured Out my Life in Coffeespoons at 5:20 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


showbiz_liz: "Where is Dave Wasserman right now anyway, that he's getting all this info first?"

Dave's mostly watching the publicly reported results, but he knows what precincts should do what, so he can call early.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:21 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


THANK YOU VA THANK YOU NJ THANK YOU EVERYWHERE FOR VOTING AGAINST THE ORANGE SHITGIBBON'S MINIONS
posted by localhuman at 5:22 PM on November 7 [49 favorites]


Please, describe more.

Know how characters in A Song Of Ice And Fire are always biting into honey-roasted fowl and the savory juices run into their beards? Tucker right now is the closest watching Fox News gets to that.
posted by Rust Moranis at 5:22 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


Dems currently up in 18 GOP VA House seats, that would flip the chamber.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:23 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Can someone speak to where we're at wrt to the VA state legislature?
posted by lalex at 5:23 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I voted today in my college town precinct in PA. I got there about 2 hrs before closing and I was the 119th ballot of the day... out of about 2600 registered voters. That might bring us to 5% turnout by the end of the day. Turnout in last year's general in my precinct was 43%. In the 2015 elections it was... 3.9%. So, uh, progress?
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 5:23 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


My prediction: more Republicans in purple or blue states announce that they're retiring in the next couple of weeks.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:23 PM on November 7 [61 favorites]


Guys, GUYS. I <3 everyone.
posted by xyzzy at 5:24 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


My prediction: more Republicans in purple or blue states announce that they're retiring in the next couple of weeks.

this is a terrific point
posted by lalex at 5:24 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


oh my god: @Kristen Soltis Anderson: "Dem won Loudon by 4 and Prince William County by 8 in 2013. With 95+% precincts in, Northam is up 19 in Loudon 21 in Prince William."

This here needs to be the rule rather than the exception: we all vote. We all vote hard in every election, every time, from dogcatcher on up. All you children-having people, teach your children and your friends' children and your students and random people on the street that progs and lefties ALWAYS vote, vote, vote, vote, vote, and they help every other DemSymp vote and get enfranchised. That's a big part of how we field better candidates and drive the platform where it needs to go.

And trounce the baddies, of course.

I'm just pissed because there wasn't an election for me to vote in today, only for people within the city limits 5 minutes away!
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:25 PM on November 7 [27 favorites]


Please, describe more.

his facial expression is "befuddled dipshit"
posted by indubitable at 5:25 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


The Orange Albatross is going to drown them. Get fucked, shitters.
posted by Slackermagee at 5:25 PM on November 7 [38 favorites]


And here people were worried that Donna Brazile was a factor.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:25 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


And here people were worried that Donna Brazile was a factor.

Overjoyed it turned out not to be a factor (thus far).
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:26 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?
posted by Brainy at 5:26 PM on November 7


There were two GOP Congressmen who announced they won't be running again today. Expecting a lot more in the next week.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:26 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


I'm already getting worried about 2018 complacency. *is total downer*
posted by mynameisluka at 5:27 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


The Orange Albatross is going to drown them. Get fucked, shitters.

Good luck passing your Tax "Reform" screwing the middle class for millionaires now, you craven fucks.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:27 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?

We also care because fuck you republicans.
posted by Justinian at 5:28 PM on November 7 [71 favorites]




Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?

If it's happening now in VA, it can happen next year nationally.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:28 PM on November 7 [28 favorites]


Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?

well also some of us live here, you know, dumb stuff like that
posted by indubitable at 5:28 PM on November 7 [84 favorites]


Maybe the Brazile factor was a reminder that even if there's infighting you still gotta fucking vote or look what happens.
posted by rewil at 5:28 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


I realized today I was completely unable to talk about politics without my value judgments ... I used to be able to explain different sides without editorializing too much, sticking with factual statements. Today I couldn't do it. Finally I had to just explain to my brother, "The Republicans have done everything they can to like, throw away my vote. They're dangerous. I am just always going to tell you to vote D. That's just how it is. It may seem like in these smaller elections, party isn't as important; it may seem like New Jersey Republicans are okay. But even if that were true, their power flows upstream, and simply having an R in any seat empowers the national agenda just a little bit more."

I'm starting to think I could accept having Leonard Lance (R, NJ-07) as my congressman. He voted against healthcare repeal, he voted against the trans-in-the-military stuff, he's against the tax reform BS, you know. Things that matter. But even though he is personally maybe not the worst, the R next to his name is empowering Paul Ryan. That's hard to get past.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 5:28 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


Basically it's the anti 'lol nothing matters'
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:28 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Mrs. Dewd (and friends) did postcards for VA-02 and VA-87, and I did some benefits she organized for fundraising.
We are quite happy tonight.
posted by MtDewd at 5:29 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


They've called VA-51 for Hala Ayala, the first Latina elected to the Virginia house of delegates.
posted by galaxy rise at 5:29 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]




Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?

In the exit polls, people's #1 issue was healthcare. A medicare expansion in Va can't happen with a republican house of delegates.
posted by peeedro at 5:29 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Quinnipiac are dropping the mic right about now. Good job, big Q.
posted by Justinian at 5:29 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Oh man, that came out all wrong. It just seemed like the excitement at hitting the 17 flipping meant there was some specific milestone there that maybe I’m unaware of.
posted by Brainy at 5:30 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Brainy: "Hate to ask this, but is gerrymandering the only reason we care about the Virginia house?"

Dude, I linked to like 30 articles saying why it mattered!

But, gerrymandering, plus it tends to have predictive potential for US House 2018.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:30 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I promised myself I would never cry over election results again.
posted by asteria at 5:30 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


This is giving me a lot of hope for my home state of Michigan, which similarly to Virginia is a bluish-purple state that got absolutely assfucked by the 2010 redistrictings.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:31 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]




Let’s not overlook what Tom Perriello did to make this night happen in Virginia. He has been out in the state since the primary busting his ass for Northam, And showing everyone how to heal the divide from 2016.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:31 PM on November 7 [77 favorites]


Turnout was up across the board, including heavily AA districts. Guess TWITTER LIED TO ME. How can I trust them again?
posted by Justinian at 5:32 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Some other results I'm following:

Maine Ballot Question 2, which would expand Medicaid against the Governor's wishes.

Ohio Issue 2, which would have capped state costs for prescription drugs at VA prices. It lost, badly, after the same kind of confusion we had in California and a very expensive campaign against it.

VA House of Delegates balance (scroll to the bottom, click "Show all races"). VA Attorney General is also interesting since it came down to a handful of votes last time.

Manhattan DA. I don't serious expect Vance to lose to a last-minute write-in, but the margin will be interesting.

Philadelphia DA. Krasner is a bold criminal justice reformer running against a career prosecutor.
posted by zachlipton at 5:33 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


CNN reporting that a senior Republican advisor said that tonight was a "crushing" defeat and a total Dem sweep.

Blood in the water, you racist fucks.
posted by Frowner at 5:33 PM on November 7 [60 favorites]


Kathy Tran flips HD-42.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:34 PM on November 7 [27 favorites]


Karrie Delaney flips HD-67.

Schuyler VanValkenburg flips HD-72.

11 seats gained so far.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I've seen up 18 for VA House?
posted by lalex at 5:36 PM on November 7


I'm already getting worried about 2018 complacency.

I dunno, I'm feeling pretty fucking energized.
posted by contraption at 5:36 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


the most pleasurable thing on my Twitter right now is people retweeting Chris Cilizza's extremely wrong hot takes on the VA Gov election.
posted by lalex at 5:37 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


How many seats need to be flipped?
posted by cybertaur1 at 5:37 PM on November 7


Also one to watch is NYC city council district 34, where a socialist is challenging the Dem with a serious ground game. Again, the margin matters even if he loses.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:38 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


17 seats to gain Dem control.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:38 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Trump must be so mad.
posted by Frowner at 5:38 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


The Orange Albatross is going to drown them. Get fucked, shitters.

Ha! I'm enjoying the visual of yellow and brown Republican undies about now. It makes me wonder just what Seeping Baby Man is going to face in Congress when he returns. I surmise there's a bunch of people thinking "liability" right now. Combine this with Muellerween and Carter "Millstone" Page, I bet the atmosphere on Air Force One is going to be as thick as pea soup on the return trip.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:39 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I broke my own rule of no phones during dinner but I couldn’t keep up. I’m so happy! Cake cake cakity cake!
posted by Ruki at 5:39 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Chris Hurst flips HD-12.

Need five more seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:40 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


How is the Philly DA race going? I'm afraid to go to the website to find out in case I jinx it.
posted by mcduff at 5:40 PM on November 7


11 pickups in the VA House already. They're almost coming by the minute now.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:40 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Wasserman on Twitter: "I never thought I'd say this at this point in the night, but Dems have a decent chance at the VA House of Delegates. Up 11 seats and counting (need 17)."

It's probably too much to hope for, but holy shit that would be amazing.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:40 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Maybe the Brazile factor was a reminder that even if there's infighting you still gotta fucking vote or look what happens.

Super optimistic take: maybe it did have a negative effect and we're in a temporary relative enthusiasm lull and still accomplished this.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:40 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


I hope they get him off the Korean Peninsula as soon as fucking possible though
posted by schadenfrau at 5:40 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Trump must be so mad.

Yeah, and angry as well
posted by azpenguin at 5:40 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


Longer voting hours are probably better from a voting rights standpoint but I'm jelly of all you VA people with your fancy results. 20 minutes till NY polls close!
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:40 PM on November 7


Krasner well in the lead with 73% of the vote! (with 4.33% of precincts in, whatever, give me this)

At this point I'm almost more interested in turnout for PHL, especially compared to the last contested DA race, and considering that it's cold and rainy tonight.

I voted around 6:30pm, but couldn't see what number I was, and was too shy to ask :( It's my first time voting in this particular ward, so I'll be curious to see how it differs from my previous North Philly spot.

Also I swore I wasn't gonna sit at my computer and refresh all night but ok this is how it's gonna be I guess.
posted by kalimac at 5:40 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Wasserman says - "VA HOUSE OF DELEGATES: Democrats have already picked up 11 seats (2, 10, 13, 31, 32, 42, 50, 51, 67, 72, 73) and need 6 more for control. There are ~13 more GOP seats still in play." - and tweeted a moment later that another seat had flipped D.
posted by Devonian at 5:41 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]




Thank you to everyone who volunteered for campaigns this election! Thank you, thank you!
posted by mixedmetaphors at 5:42 PM on November 7 [51 favorites]


REFRESH ALL NIGHT LONG LIKE WE DID LAST SUMMER!
posted by vrakatar at 5:42 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


Maybe the Brazile factor was a reminder that even if there's infighting you still gotta fucking vote or look what happens.

Super optimistic take: maybe it did have a negative effect and we're in a temporary relative enthusiasm lull and still accomplished this.


Maybe nobody cared at all?
posted by lalex at 5:42 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Also super-pleased to see Debra Rodman win HD73, since I wrote 100 postcards for her! She's really awesome, and I'm so happy!
posted by kalimac at 5:42 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Doesn’t Hope Hicks have her Mueller meeting as soon as they come back?

Wonder if she’s starting to take helpful notes
posted by schadenfrau at 5:42 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Husband: wanna play video games?
Me: FUCK NO party in the election thread, baby
posted by lydhre at 5:43 PM on November 7 [67 favorites]


LOL Trump just threw Gillespie under the bus on twitter.
posted by Justinian at 5:43 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


Sitting here eating something after the gym reading the delightful news and the Beatles' Getting Better just came on and I'm about this close to losing it. It really does feel like the last 12 months have taken 12 years.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 5:43 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


One interesting detail from the exit poll is that late-deciding voters swung for Northam. That can partly explain why the polls undercounted his chances, but damn, the Times forecast is up to Northam +8.9 now, with the uncertainty narrowing. That's in the territory of that Quinnipiac poll we all laughed at.

Also, a ton of credit goes to Tom Perriello, who lost the Democratic primary and immediately turned around to campaign like hell for Northam.

The scary thing is that Trump is surrounded by reporters on his Asia trip right now, and he's expected to routinely do press conferences and stuff. Watching him pretend none of this has to do with him, he never supported Gillespie, and that Gillespie is just an establishment swamp creature is going to be fun.
posted by zachlipton at 5:43 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]


Donny making excuses.

@realDonaldTrump
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!
posted by chris24 at 5:43 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Gerrymandering is literally the opposite to wave proofing. As soon as you hit the map’s tipping point your bulwarks all drop at once.
posted by Talez at 5:44 PM on November 7 [42 favorites]


Trump: "Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!"
posted by Justinian at 5:44 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


A fun thing about gerrymandering that perhaps the Republicans are just learning is that if you manufacture a ton of 55-45 districts, you make yourself incredibly vulnerable to a ton more flips than with a fair map.
posted by Copronymus at 5:44 PM on November 7 [29 favorites]


Kathy Tran flips HD-42.

I'm making pancakes for dinner.
posted by Room 641-A at 5:45 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Bob Marshall going down to a transwoman is just, ur-poetic? Uber-irony? Mecha-karma? He's been one of the most hateful fucking figures in America for 25 years, really, look at his record on par with Roy Moore. And to get sent packing by Roem :kissemojii:

Apparently, karma has a new laser sight she wanted to test.
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:45 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


Oh man, he couldn't hold it in until the Fox News morning shows...
posted by zombieflanders at 5:45 PM on November 7


I'm starting to think I could accept having Leonard Lance (R, NJ-07) as my congressman. He voted against healthcare repeal, he voted against the trans-in-the-military stuff, he's against the tax reform BS, you know. Things that matter. But even though he is personally maybe not the worst, the R next to his name is empowering Paul Ryan. That's hard to get past.

I'm there with you, rainbo vagrant. Lance isn't a foaming-at-the-mouth asshole like many, but he's definitely not willing to stand against Trump on the majority of things. I'm a lifelong Dem, so no surprise on my view. The interesting shift for me has been my husband. We've been married more than 20 years, he's always been a moderate Republican, liberal on social issues. He was willing to vote for certain other Republicans in the primaries last year.* But Trump? No. After planning not to vote, and me beseeching him to find a way to vote, even if it meant skipping the presidential election and voting R in all the rest, he ended up voting a straight D ticket. He now considers himself a one-issue voter - if you support Trump, you don't get his vote. It's been a little weird being on the same side...

* Christie was on the list of people he was willing to vote for in the primary - until Atlantic County got flooded while Christie was stumping, and his response to calls for him to return was "What do you want me to do - grab a mop?" The house my husband grew up in was bought by his sister when their parents retired and moved out of state. It got 4 feet of water after Sandy, the whole first floor had a bunch of work and repairs done, and then they raised the house a story. He didn't take kindly to Christie's attitude towards the Atlantic County flooding.
posted by booksherpa at 5:45 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


CNN just called Lt Gov and AG in VA for the Dems. Fairfax and Herring win.
posted by chris24 at 5:46 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


Dems leading in several of those remaining GOP House of Delegates seat, per the VA election site. Fingers crossed.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:46 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


So... does this mean there's a chance Alabama might not go to the complete crazy person or is that off the cards because Alabama?
posted by Artw at 5:47 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Good grief I thought at least five minutes would go by between me predicting that Trump would weasel out from any responsibility for this and him doing it. Have we gotten to the point where I just telekinetically feel his tweets now?
posted by zachlipton at 5:47 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


He’s pretty predictable so long as you let go of good sense limitations
posted by Bovine Love at 5:48 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


It's fair-weather friendship at the speed of sound.
posted by mynameisluka at 5:48 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Trump tweets, now with 280 characters.
posted by lalex at 5:49 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
If anyone thought '16 was the floor for GOP in well-educated areas, they're going to have to rethink.
posted by chris24 at 5:49 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


Aaahhahaha not one elected Republican or person involved in GOP strategy is buying that Gillespie somehow failed to embrace Trump, not for one second. Dude intentionally remade himself in the Trump mold, and look what that gets you. Keep trying the desperate spin, Donnie, but you're looking like a liability to anybody who hasn't drunk deep of the koolaid now.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:49 PM on November 7 [30 favorites]


They're almost coming by the minute now.

I have a feeling we all are.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:49 PM on November 7 [76 favorites]


> "So... does this mean there's a chance Alabama might not go to the complete crazy person or is that off the cards because Alabama?"

A chance? Sure.

Likely? No.

But hey, who knows.
posted by kyrademon at 5:51 PM on November 7


BREAKING: Fuck those grapes, says fox.
posted by Copronymus at 5:52 PM on November 7 [27 favorites]


12 seats now.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:52 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


I have completely lost my bearings. What else are people watching out for, in Not Virgina, as the next waves of poll closings come?
posted by lalex at 5:52 PM on November 7


@HeerJeet
Once again, Robert E. Lee turns out to be a loser.
posted by chris24 at 5:53 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


This is a good time for a reminder that Bannon just tied Gillespie to Trump: "And I think the big lesson for Tuesday is that, in Gillespie's case, Trumpism without Trump can show the way forward. If that's the case, Democrats better be very, very worried."

And now Trump is all "did not embrace me or what I stand for." Why would anyone sign up to be thrown under the bus by this guy?
posted by zachlipton at 5:53 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


What else are people watching out for,

Maine medical expansion.
posted by chris24 at 5:53 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


The intro to the live NYTimes coverage of the Virginia races:
"Virginians will vote in races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the state legislature on Tuesday. The state’s 100 House of Delegate races represent the purest test of grass-roots anger at the president, election analysts said.

That is because the candidates are little known to voters, largely absent from TV ads, and the races approximate a generic partisan ballot. If the past is a guide, they may also prefigure nationwide congressional voting in 2018."
That seems... promising? (TTTCS)
posted by booksherpa at 5:53 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Thanks to everyone who worked to make this happen. I didn't have much faith in Democratic party machinery (and still have many doubts), but this is unquestionably a win for the country - the first in a long time.
posted by codacorolla at 5:54 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


It’s early morning in Asia, that’s why he’s up and tweeting.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:54 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I meant to come in and celebrate my state's election of a Dem gov (NJ) but got so caught up in the VA action.

Big congrats to Hala Ayala, Elizabeth Guzman, and Danica Roem. So excited to see if that House can flip!
posted by rachaelfaith at 5:54 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Will Drabold on twitter:
NEWS: Big night developing for @ForwardMajority. The group was playing exclusively in hard-to-win VA House races without party/outside group support. Two of their nine candidates have won so far tonight. (They weren’t betting on winning any races.) Lee Carter (50) and Kelly Fowler (21).
posted by mcduff at 5:54 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]






Fox News has completely given up: "Tucker has Glenn Greenwald on now to talk Donna Brazile."

Alexandra Petri asks if Fox News is in reruns because they're just talking about last year.
posted by zachlipton at 5:55 PM on November 7 [32 favorites]


What else are people watching out for,

On the west coast, a Democratic victory in LD 45 would give the Dems full control of Washington state government.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 5:55 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


And now Trump is all "did not embrace me or what I stand for." Why would anyone sign up to be thrown under the bus by this guy?

Can’t get through R primaries without Trumpism.
posted by Talez at 5:56 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Please, describe more.

It's something you need to see & hear for yourself. Here, let me help you. Well, here's Tucker Carlson calling #VAGov for Northam and if you're a democrat/progressive/liberal, it's everything you could ever want. And it is. You can hear his vocal cords getting tauter as he speaks.
posted by scalefree at 5:56 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


Goddamn Pennsylvania's election reporting is slow as shit. I want to update you on my local lefty upstart but it's like molasses in January up in here.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:56 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Medicaid expansion looking good in Maine, not a sure thing yet.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:56 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Fanfiction daydream du jour: Paul Ryan puts on his zombie-eyed concerned face tomorrow and tells the press, "As I've been saying all along, Republican leaders must stand up and condemn the terrible conduct of this President and his traitorous cronies!"
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:58 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


I feel like if there's a lesson to take from this evening at 9 PM EST, it's probably that the online garbage hellscape, from Twitter fights about Donna Brazile to whatever's going on on Breitbart, doesn't matter that much in terms of people's actual votes. The reasons for Trump are things that are correlated with, but distinct from that.
posted by Copronymus at 5:58 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Small potatoes in comparison, perhaps, but as far as the one race I could vote in is concerned: Kirkland Carden just won a seat on the Duluth (Georgia) city council. I don't know if he would be the first African American council member, but even if not, there can't have been many before him.
posted by metaquarry at 5:59 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Krasner is still going strong in Philadelphia with the 30% of the vote in.
posted by nolnacs at 5:59 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Gerrymandering is literally the opposite to wave proofing. As soon as you hit the map’s tipping point your bulwarks all drop at once

Yeah, but some of the research on the newest batch of gerrymandered states shows (IIRC) that they're specifically engineered not to be the best possible R gerrymander but the best possible R gerrymander that's resistant to a wave. I forget who exactly was doing this except that I don't think it was Chen?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:00 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
Massive turnout. Running 8 percent higher ahead of our estimates, which were 8 percent ahead of 13! Could be heading for nearly 2.7 million votes.
posted by chris24 at 6:00 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


Shout out to Chrysostom for their fabulous work at keeping us all updated about the state of these races all year. A hero we both wanted and needed.
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:01 PM on November 7 [143 favorites]


The offer I would make to 2018 Republicans, if it were up to me: "There has been too much violence, too much pain. None here are without sin, but I have an honorable compromise. Just walk away. Leave the pump, the oil, the gasoline, and the whole compound, and I spare your lives. Just walk away.... Just walk away and there will be an end to the horror. I await your answer."

(Which is to say... winning is good. I like winning. Unlike some posters above, my fear of complacency is far outweighed by the renewed energy and enthusiasm from a good result. But, I will still always resist complacency.)
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 6:01 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Fanfiction daydream du jour: Paul Ryan puts on his zombie-eyed concerned face tomorrow and tells the press, "As I've been saying all along, it's Republican leaders must stand up and condemn the terrible conduct of this President and his traitorous cronies!"

Trumpists know their kind, they can smell bullshit (Strange may as well have been covered in blowflies), and they still greatly outnumber the “sane” Republicans in primaries. This is not going to happen. Safe R seats are going to get more and more batshit crazy.
posted by Talez at 6:01 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I wrote one hundred postcards for Kathy Tran, she won, she is the first Asian American woman ever elected to the VA House of Delegates, and now I am sniffling at the bus stop. Sometimes the internalized racism makes me feel embarrassed for my support of Asian American candidates because blah blah identity politics, but then I think: Grace Meng. Ted Lieu. Mazie Hirono. Kamala fuckin Harris. You all should be so lucky as to have one of us represent you.
posted by sunset in snow country at 6:02 PM on November 7 [131 favorites]


I'm making pancakes for dinner.

OMG OMG OMG. I just realized that not only do I have stuff in the house for pancakes (eggs, yes; milk, yes; flour, yes; REAL maple syrup, yes), I also have bacon!!!

I hated myself for coming into this thread on election night because the past 12 months have left me feeling like a puppy about to get kicked. But tonight is magical! Pancakes... AND bacon!!! That almost literally never happens!
posted by mudpuppie at 6:03 PM on November 7 [33 favorites]


On the west coast, a Democratic victory in LD 45 would give the Dems full control of Washington state government.

Rooting hard for Manka Dhingra. Couldn't vote for her, and to a race the contested elections on my ballot this year were between two progressives of slightly different flavors, but it will be amazing if she wins.
posted by edeezy at 6:03 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


@zombieflanders: I've been informed that Althea Garrison was actually the first. More is definitely better in this case.
posted by XtinaS at 6:04 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


It feels good to be a Virginian right now.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:04 PM on November 7 [27 favorites]


Today's not over, and the numbers look good, but let's not wait to start working on 2018. And 2019. And 2020...
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:06 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


Currently looking good for Dems to pick up a seat on the state Supreme Court, still early, though.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 7


Yeah, but some of the research on the newest batch of gerrymandered states shows (IIRC) that they're specifically engineered not to be the best possible R gerrymander but the best possible R gerrymander that's resistant to a wave. I forget who exactly was doing this except that I don't think it was Chen?

I doubt it. You don’t run 66-34 in seats off the back of 54-44 election results when you’re trying to wave proof. You want 53 members with as much R as you can give them on the back end. Like R+15 levels of majority.
posted by Talez at 6:07 PM on November 7


Althea Garrison was, indeed, the first. But she was not out, until the Herald destroyed her career with just the sort of coverage you'd expect from a tabloid. Now, she runs every year for something in Boston. Tonight, she's currently coming in fifth for one of the four at-large seats on the city council. If that holds, she would automatically get on the council should one of the four leave office over the next two years for some reason.
posted by adamg at 6:08 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


So here's my hot take:

The bastards are now on notice. On notice that they have exactly one year of time to push through their bullshit. Which means we have to run a year-long, non-stop fight to protest, to impede, to stand up and say, "We see you. We know what you are doing. And we are not going to let it happen." My beloved MeFites, let's do this!
posted by Tsuga at 6:09 PM on November 7 [95 favorites]


One thing to keep in mind about the size of Northam's victory (currently projected at about 9 points by the NYT) - there's substantial evidence that the size of victory matters. The bigger the margin, the more left (or right) the politician tends to govern. Big win plus (at least) big HOD gains means Northam is likely to be more progressive than if he had won by 2 points.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:10 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]


When the dust settles it'll be interesting to look again at all that crazy VA polling.
posted by lalex at 6:10 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


This is not going to happen.

Hence the joky "fanfiction daydream" label. Just a cheap shot at Ryan's weaselly nature, really, because those are always fun.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:10 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Yep, sitting here in this literal last capital of the Confederacy seeing the 57% Northam to 42% Gillespie local break feels pretty nice. Let's keep this momentum up for the next 3 years!
posted by glonous keming at 6:10 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
Turnout surge included black voters, as well. In majority black precincts, turnout is running 7% over our pre-election estimates, v. 8% elsewhere.
posted by chris24 at 6:12 PM on November 7 [21 favorites]


Today's not over, and the numbers look good, but let's not wait to start working on 2018. And 2019. And 2020...

Alls I can tell you is that I was voting in boring little local elections here in western NY and I filled in the first candidate in the D row and it was like

FROM HELL'S HEART I STAB AT THEE

and brother that shit felt gooooooooooooood
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:13 PM on November 7 [80 favorites]


...holy shit we did it.
posted by dogheart at 6:13 PM on November 7 [41 favorites]




All those liberal tears formed a tsunami.
posted by guiseroom at 6:14 PM on November 7 [56 favorites]


Kelly Convirs-Fowler flips HD-21.

Need four more.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:15 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Y’all I’m pretty happy.
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:16 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


YOU GUYS! The DSA-backed Independent is up by 10 with 75% reporting. This is the smallest of tiny potatoes politically-speaking but man I was not expecting this. I was optimistic for a narrow loss showing that running left of the local Dem machine was a thing you could do and not be totally humiliated. I had no idea you could, like, win. This has major implications for our primaries next year.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:16 PM on November 7 [40 favorites]


@daveweigel (WaPo)
Dems have won all three of the marquee off-year races -- NJGov, VAGov, NYC Mayor -- for the first time since 1989.

---

According to Steve Kornacki on MSNBC, last time a Dem won the VA Gov race by more than 8 points was 1985. Northam is on pace to do that.
posted by chris24 at 6:16 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


could medicaid expansion finally be on the table here in VA? I never dared to hope...
posted by indubitable at 6:17 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Krasner won for DA in Philly. Incredibly progressive and he won despite the FOP fighting hard against him and the two main papers endorsing his opponent.
posted by mcduff at 6:17 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


MSNBC map guy is exhausting. I wish he'd stop yelling at me.
posted by bongo_x at 6:19 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


It would be amazing to fight for something (medicaid expansion) instead of against stuff (bathroom bills/transvaginal ultrasounds)
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 6:19 PM on November 7 [40 favorites]


@Daniel Dale: "[Krasner] represented Black Lives Matter activists, who then campaigned for him"

I am stunned, y'all. Not only are people winning but some pretty great people are winning.
posted by lalex at 6:20 PM on November 7 [86 favorites]


All of this good news tonight has me excited for Albuquerque’s mayoral runoff next week between Tim Keller, who is backed by Our Revolution and running a publicly financed campaign, and a Trumpist running against "the homosexual agenda."
posted by joedan at 6:20 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


What the shit is going on with this new Allegheny County (PA) elections site? It used to be a bunch of plain text HTML that was easy to search for, now it's this 3rd party-hosted shiny web app with useless pie charts and the crappiest "filter for my local races" filter imaginable.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:21 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I, for one, am not yet tired of winning.
posted by nubs at 6:21 PM on November 7 [56 favorites]


Re Krasner victory:
"MY FRIENDS! PHILADELPHIA HAS JUST ELECTED A CIVIL RIGHTS ATTORNEY WHO WANTS FEWER PEOPLE IN PRISON AS ITS TOP PROSECUTOR!"
posted by mcduff at 6:21 PM on November 7 [100 favorites]




@neeratanden
The best part of tonight is that Steve Bannon last minute took credit for Gillespie surge. LOL
posted by chris24 at 6:24 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


MY FRIENDS! PHILADELPHIA HAS JUST ELECTED A CIVIL RIGHTS ATTORNEY WHO WANTS FEWER PEOPLE IN PRISON AS ITS TOP PROSECUTOR!

that's the kind of cop I can support
posted by indubitable at 6:24 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Seth Masket at 538 asks a vital question:

Since pollsters and pundits seem to have missed a Democratic surge today, can I assume that there will now be a flood of articles and books on urban non-white liberals?
posted by Tsuga at 6:26 PM on November 7 [129 favorites]


@neeratanden
The best part of tonight is that Steve Bannon last minute took credit for Gillespie surge. LOL

Current Breitbart headline: “Republican Swamp Thing Gillespie Rejected.”

LOL indeed.
posted by zakur at 6:26 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]


@Yair_Rosenberg
Across VA, centrist Dems and leftist Dems are winning big. Activists obsessively debate what direction the party needs to go, but the real answer is just: against Trump.

---

@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
This is what a wave looks like
posted by chris24 at 6:27 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]




Fairfax County a bloodbath:
McAuliffe: 176K to 109K
Northam: 212K to 99K (232 districts of 244 reporting)
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:28 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


What the shit is going on with this new Allegheny County (PA) elections site?

It's the wooooorst. And it takes like 5 minutes to reload on mobile.

But, I think I can now call our local magesterial judge race for Pappas (I) over Costa (D) with 96% reporting. And it was kind of a blow-out. I'm delighted!
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:28 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Since pollsters and pundits seem to have missed a Democratic surge today, can I assume that there will now be a flood of articles and books on urban non-white liberals?

SHOW SOME EMPATHY MOTHERFUCKERS!
posted by Artw at 6:28 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]


i see you, glonous keming! go throw a few celebration eggs at the sutherlin mansion for me!
posted by floweringjudas at 6:28 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


I don't have a cake on hand, so I think I'll just drink a tall, frosty mug of conservative tears.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:29 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


Apparently Northam is also winning all of the Tidewater area of VA, which is the other big area of Democratic strength, along with Northern Virginia. I assume that reflects high African-American turnout.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:30 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


lol and our just-re-elected (uncontested) Democratic mayor just called himself a snowflake on Twitter.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:30 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


Maybe I can be proud to be a Virginian again...
posted by XtinaS at 6:30 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Current Breitbart headline: “Republican Swamp Thing Gillespie Rejected.”

They're not wrong! But everyone's been trying very hard not to talk about that during the campaign.
posted by indubitable at 6:30 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


If Bannon is indeed "taking over" the Republican Party, then a Democratic landslide in '18 is pretty much assured. And while "Safe R seats are going to get more and more batshit crazy", the number of Safe R seats is going to shrink significantly. Thanks, Steve.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:31 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


I am sad that we are a full two and a half hours away from proclaiming - It is Wednesday, My Dudes.

See you kids next year, keep voting!
posted by Slap*Happy at 6:31 PM on November 7


Yep, sitting here in this literal last capital of the Confederacy seeing the 57% Northam to 42% Gillespie local break feels pretty nice. Let's keep this momentum up for the next 3 years!

No, for the next 30 years. I’ve lived my entire life under the cloud of a regressive, revivalist movement that has corrupted the politically powerful older generation who has in turn attempted to dismantle civil society to save a few hundred dollars on their taxes. I would like to live the second half of my life leaving a better world for the generation coming into power below me. So yes, the next 3 years are crucial, but the coming decades are how we rebuild a sensible society.
posted by milarepa at 6:31 PM on November 7 [76 favorites]


Folks, I've had a $10 coupon for the market that I've been saving for the right occasion, and I am now in possession of FREE CAKE.

(Please do not ruin this moment for me by pointing out that the coupon is just a rebate and that I could have spent it on, you know, non-cake food or that this market is so overpriced they can afford this kind of thing. Thank you.)

These Maine Medicaid numbers are looking awfully good too.
posted by zachlipton at 6:32 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


Oh Lord, I just muted Donnie and opened another bottle of Trader Joe's Rhone.
posted by octobersurprise at 6:32 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


Apparently Northam is also winning all of the Tidewater area of VA, which is the other big area of Democratic strength, along with Northern Virginia. I assume that reflects high African-American turnout.

Yes, and he's from the Eastern Shore, so local boy effect. Also the military vote, he's an army doctor.
posted by peeedro at 6:32 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


NY constitutional convention looks likely to lose.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:34 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


He made his career in Norfolk and represented a district there when he was a Delegate.
posted by indubitable at 6:35 PM on November 7


All of this good news tonight has me excited for Albuquerque’s mayoral runoff next week between Tim Keller, who is backed by Our Revolution and running a publicly financed campaign, and a Trumpist running against "the homosexual agenda."

Oh lord, not another one. There's too many of me already.
posted by scalefree at 6:35 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]



I have to say this is the best night to have to have taken really, really strong painkillers from the 'only open in a real and true emergency bottle.' Pain is well under control and reading this thread is proving to be extra speacially joyful. I'm relieved and can't quit this big dopey smiling thing. Wheeee...
posted by Jalliah at 6:35 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Not just VA.

@ForecasterEnten
Medicaid expansion is winning in early returns in Maine, and it's not close.
posted by chris24 at 6:36 PM on November 7 [34 favorites]


I'm delighted by the Mik Pappas showing, too. I'm still alternating between horror and cackling about that mailing Costa sent out warning us all about how Mik was supported by the DSA as if that was supposed to horrify me.
posted by Stacey at 6:37 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Cy Vance way up for Manhattan DA.

Well, at least the attention this has gotten should help a bit to keep him in line.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:37 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Oh Lord, I just muted Donnie and opened another bottle of Trader Joe's Rhone.

Same here, but it's a bottle of Ommegang GoT Winter is Here Belgian Double White. And it's not even my cheat day!
posted by zakur at 6:38 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


In my fantasy spy novel the Russians were supposed to rig this election and just didn't.
posted by bongo_x at 6:38 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Turns out when you let people vote, they actually do want low-income people to have access to medical care.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:38 PM on November 7 [57 favorites]


Re: Northam winning by 8 points.

@yeselson
So better even than Obama’s 2008 margin if this holds up. Dems don’t get 40% of white vote in VA—tonight Northam did that.
posted by chris24 at 6:39 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Looks like we'll be having a recount in HD-94. Yancey (R) leads Simonds (D) by 42 votes out of about 23k total.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:40 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


re: Cy Vance - is there a site that's tracking the write-in results? Unable to find anything atm
posted by birdheist at 6:40 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


WHERE ARE YOU BOTS NOW, PISS-STALIN???
posted by Artw at 6:41 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


My autonomic nervous system doesn't know what to do. I'm seriously experiencing the weirdest form of post-traumatic stress from the combination of the same trappings as last year (same room, same computer, same websites, same activity) but a totally different outcome.

The Pappas campaign has been blowing up my phone for the past couple of weeks, but this election coincided with the most cuckoobananas unprecedented nonsense at work and I've been dodging them instead of doing my part (I did throw him some cash, though). But good job, guys. I'm super impressed.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:41 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


The great thing about these early Maine results is that a lot of the municipalities with large populations likely to support Medicare expansion haven't reported in yet: Lewiston, Auburn, Scarborough, Gorham, Westbrook, Freeport, Brunswick, and Topsham (as well as the other 66% of Portland's precincts) are all likely to move the needle further towards a Yes vote.
posted by OntologicalPuppy at 6:42 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for.

After impeachment: "Being president wasn't me. The White House is a dump."

After imprisonment: "I'm winning at prison. I make the best license plates anyone's ever seen."
posted by orange swan at 6:43 PM on November 7 [27 favorites]


lol and our just-re-elected (uncontested) Democratic mayor just called himself a snowflake on Twitter.

And when a bunch of snowflakes get together they become a fucking avalanche. We will bury you GOP. Roll on 2018!

Damn it feels good to watch some good shit happen today, takes some (not all) of the poison out of 2016.
posted by supercrayon at 6:44 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


@ElectProject
The first hints of a 2006 wave came when Democrats took back control of the Virginia Senate in 2005. Was first Southern legislative chamber to flip back to the Democrats


@benchmarkpol
The VA House results should scare Republicans. Democratic turnout is literally overcoming gerrymandering.


@gdebenedetti (Politico)
Not one Democrat I talked to about tonight predicted anything close to this, no matter how optimistic, at any point in the last 6 months.
posted by chris24 at 6:45 PM on November 7 [67 favorites]


"Dems don’t get 40% of white vote in VA—tonight Northam did that."

It feels like a reverse day from last year election.

So has Virginia officially transitioned from purple to blue? I live in Richmond so my perception is definitely skewed.
posted by Tarumba at 6:46 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]




I quote my own tweet:

@XtinaSchelin
The feeling I'm having right now is best described as "reassociating". #2017elections
posted by XtinaS at 6:47 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


re: Cy Vance - is there a site that's tracking the write-in results? Unable to find anything atm

the city's unofficial results page.
posted by
melissasaurus at 6:47 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


"I'm winning at prison. I make the best license plates anyone's ever seen."

COV FEFE
posted by uncleozzy at 6:48 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


I would like to note this is a battle, and not the war. The next one, the battle that affects you and yours the most deeply, will be at the county/town/borough level. It won't be in November, you will have to cast a vote on a random date to keep your family safe. The Republicans want to rob our children of their education, they want to shutter our libraries, they want to unpave our roads so the toll-keepers can bleed us dry. Your municipality will have a number of votes this year. Find out when they are, and what the stakes are. It's really goddamn important.
posted by Slap*Happy at 6:48 PM on November 7 [80 favorites]


Oh, my friend won her seat on borough council. Go Christine!
posted by Chrysostom at 6:48 PM on November 7 [53 favorites]


Noted moron and questionable troll Josh Barro of MSNBC has the worst take on twitter: Tonight seems like a good example of why Dems spend too much time worrying about gerrymandering.

Except a 9% victory is translating to maybe winning a slim majority of actual seats.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:49 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


re: Cy Vance - a 10% write-in, if most of those are for Marc Fliedner, certainly sends a message
posted by kokaku at 6:50 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Augh, from Wasserman: "Amazingly, the current margin is 150 votes or less in 5 of the 7 VA HoD districts that are still too close to call. That means control will be decided by absentee/provisional ballots, and may not be determined for days."
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:50 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


Looks like we'll be having a recount in HD-94. Yancey (R) leads Simonds (D) by 42 votes out of about 23k total.

Yancey's been in there a while. Just to get a feel for what that race was like, .
posted by
indubitable at 6:50 PM on November 7


The VA House results should scare Republicans. Democratic turnout is literally overcoming gerrymandering.

Want to really scare the shit out of them?

Live in Austin?

Time to do some math: find out the maximum legal occupancy in your home.

Subtract the current number of occupants.

That's how many Puerto Ricans you can invite to come live in your home in time for 2018.

If enough Austinites did this,it would flip several Congressional districts and turn the gerrymander in the other direction.
posted by ocschwar at 6:50 PM on November 7 [31 favorites]


To go along with the big increase in black turnout over 2013...

@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
Turnout in precincts where Hispanic *or* Asian voters represent at least 20% of the population is 15 percent higher than our pre-election estimates.
posted by chris24 at 6:51 PM on November 7 [34 favorites]


Augh, from Wasserman

Marc Herring won the 2013 AG race by 907 votes. It took until mid-December to resolve.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:52 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


I am really really glad I only got a chance to read this thread after VA had already been called for the dems. Even knowing that, I'm not sure it was entirely healthy for me to read through it.
posted by phack at 6:56 PM on November 7


There's lots more to come outside of VA! There's mayors, an interesting MO special, the WA-SD-45 special!
posted by Chrysostom at 6:57 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Virginia voter suppression tweets went undetected by Twitter for hours

But hey, now Trump and Nazis can send you even more detailed death threats!
posted by zombieflanders at 6:58 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]






I live in NJ, and Murphy's victory was treated as a forgone conclusion. I didn't quite believe it, considering 2016 no matter what the polls said, and did my best to make it so, so I'm glad it worked out that way. The results in Virginia please me even more, considering how much more up in the air they were. I hope we can build on this momentum.
posted by mollweide at 7:03 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


ShowbizLiz: “Also one to watch is NYC city council district 34, where a socialist is challenging the Dem with a serious ground game. Again, the margin matters even if he loses.”

I live in the 34th district and this race was uncontested. (I like my CM!) So which race is this actually about?
posted by thecaddy at 7:04 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


@daveweigel (WaPo)
Buried in exit poll: Northam, F-rated by the NRA, TIED with voters whose #1 issue was guns. 49-49

@benwikler (MoveOn) Retweeted Dave Weigel
WHOA. Normally, even though anti-NRA side is more popular, pro-NRA side has the intensity advantage. NO LONGER. Politicians everywhere, take note.
- Politicians pay attention to single-issue voters. People who support gun reform normally vote on other issues, while hardcore NRA fans vote on guns above all. That changed tonight.
posted by chris24 at 7:04 PM on November 7 [46 favorites]




Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for.
It's the classic formulation: Trump cannot fail, he can only be failed.
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:04 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


"Hispanic *or* Asian voters represent at least 20% of the population is 15 percent higher than our pre-election estimates."

It's crazy to me that people would bet on underestimating immigrants and our American children as a political approach.

We're immigrants. We moved to a different country and we built our lives from zero. By definition we believe in long-term planning and we are brave enough to leave what we know for the sake of what we want. And we will work our asses off.

My US born baby will know how corrupt and unfair my country of origin is; and will have the institutional knowledge to fight their little ass off to make sure that shit doesn't happen here.

Few segments of the population are as relentless as immigrants.
posted by Tarumba at 7:05 PM on November 7 [50 favorites]


Local news calling the Medicaid expansion for Maine. It's currently up 59/41. This will get health insurance to 70,000 or so of those in Maine who need it most.

Turns out people really do want health insurance, no matter what their idiot governor says. A bunch of other states are working to get Medicaid expansion bills on the ballot next year, and I can only hope that the GOP realizes that opposing Medicaid means they have a political problem, since there's no hope of them realizing it means they have a moral problem. Maine is going to lead the way here. Thank you Maine.
posted by zachlipton at 7:05 PM on November 7 [50 favorites]




thecaddy, it's actually the 35th district (Cumbo vs. Brisport).
posted by ferret branca at 7:07 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Have you seen Danica Roem's ad "Inspire"? I have never seen spironolactone and estradiol pill bottles in a campaign ad before! She cofounded a metal band and focused on local transportation issues in her campaign and is going from local journalist to local representative and I am so happy and crying.
posted by brainwane at 7:07 PM on November 7 [36 favorites]


Eep! Yeah sorry it's 35. I got confused because I'm in 34 myself.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:08 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


@meganamram: Today was the day Donald trump finally became president
Context for those who need it: she posts this tweet every single day. Somehow, it always lands with perfect comic timing.
posted by DoctorFedora at 7:08 PM on November 7 [51 favorites]


Voted today in WA. I don't live in the exciting district, but it felt good to vote against the 3%er supported Libertarian who is running for city council in my town. Also, more bonds for funding the local fire department!

This is what my voting looked like, only my car is silver and there was no line. The trees are fairly accurate. (Seattle Times, Twitter)
posted by monopas at 7:08 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Looks like Lyles (D) will hold Charlotte.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:09 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


The biggest election I voted in today was for a male version of Leslie Knope from Parks and Rec running for city council against an incumbent that does a pretty good job. The "at large" council seat is a choice between this awesome progressive dude and this awesome progressive guy.

One "more charter schools and vouchers for private schools" candidate crept onto the school board but I don't think she'll be able to do much to further that agenda given who else is on the board. We also voted to bump up school funding by a third per student.

So, nothing earth shattering. Just a little warm up for 2018 when we'll be gunning to unseat Paul Ryan Lackey Erik Paulsen.
posted by VTX at 7:09 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


William Gibson is a Virginian. From the ass-end where it tapers down into a sad little tail between Kentucky and Tennessee. He sounds like the chuckwagon cook from every bad Western in his early interviews.

His home state is staving off dystopia even in the throes of despair, and like the wizard he is, he predicted it in The Peripheral. Beg your pardon whilst I go blast some Steve Earl at the revanchist neighbors with the all-weather blutooth speaker.
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:11 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]




In other good news, noted douche-bag Bo Dietl got about 1% of the vote in the NY mayor race.
posted by zakur at 7:11 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Erik Paulson is the literal fucking worst.
posted by triggerfinger at 7:11 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Context for those who need it: she posts this tweet every single day. Somehow, it always lands with perfect comic timing.

Well, she worked on Parks and Rec and is one of the main writers for The Good Place, so I would hope so.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:11 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


is there anywhere giving live updates on the VA house of delegates results?
posted by indubitable at 7:12 PM on November 7


Man oh man. This is what the returns from Midway and Coral Sea must have felt like. We’re in this thing? We can win this thing!

Keep up the pressure. They’re cracking.
posted by notyou at 7:12 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


Polling seems to show people were specifically intending to send a message to Trump.
posted by bongo_x at 7:13 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


VPAP is usually pretty good.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:13 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


This is what the returns from Midway and Coral Sea must have felt like.

YOU! I like you. Let's be friends.
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:15 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


is there anywhere giving live updates on the VA house of delegates results?

NYT is, but at this point, it looks like at least some of the contested seats will come down to absentee and provisional ballots, and that will take a long time. Wasserman is generally optimistic though, for what that's worth.
If I had to put a bet on it, I’d bet Democrats will ultimately win control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. They’ve captured 47 seats, and they’re ahead in four more races, pending absentee and provisional ballots. So far, absentee ballots have broken more Democratic than the Election Day vote, so that’s no comfort to Republicans. But the bottom line is, we probably won’t be able to call control tonight.
posted by zachlipton at 7:15 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


Imagine what Virginia would be like tonight without the rain!
posted by jgirl at 7:15 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Jabari currently has 30% of the vote with 74% reporting - not bad for a dude running as a Green and a socialist vs. an incumbent Dem!
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:16 PM on November 7


Somehow I entirely missed that voting rights for felons had been reinstated in Virginia, and now I'm crying happy happy tears.
posted by XtinaS at 7:16 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


I need to find some NJ State House races source that updates more frequently than the NYTimes or else these three local races are going to give me agita and have me up late... 54% in and right now it's showing all the Dems ahead, which would be a gain of one Senate and one Assembly seat.

(NJ-16, for the curious and fellow Garden State peeps)
posted by booksherpa at 7:17 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


@HotlineJosh
These Virginia results -- more than Flake speech, more than Corker, more than Russia news -- will do more to put a brake on GOP embrace of Trump than anything else. Elections matter.
posted by chris24 at 7:17 PM on November 7 [50 favorites]


I've never seen Tucker Carlson this sad.

That's not sad. This is sad. Hannity doesn't appear to be planning to cover the Virginia election at all. This was it. It lasted 6 seconds. But what a 6 seconds it was - Hannity and Tucker being sad together.
posted by scalefree at 7:19 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Somehow I entirely missed that voting rights for felons had been reinstated in Virginia

Not only that, but "corporate Democrat" Terry McAullife personally signed over 11,000 individual petitions after the VA Supreme Court ruled he could not restore all felon voting rights by executive order.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:19 PM on November 7 [81 favorites]


There's lots more to come outside of VA! There's mayors, an interesting MO special, the WA-SD-45 special!

But... I'm already done and smoking the cigarette. I'm not 25 anymore!
posted by Justinian at 7:20 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


This is the actual Virginia elections returns site, they seem to be pretty good about updating it rapidly.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


@bessbell (Bess Kalb)
Thoughts and prayers to all the Republican politicians who lost their seats today. We won't do anything to prevent it from happening again.
posted by pjsky at 7:21 PM on November 7 [104 favorites]


Yeah, the official VA elections site just doesn't provide overview of control of the legislature like the VPAP site zombieflanders linked though.
posted by indubitable at 7:22 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


This is what the returns from Midway and Coral Sea must have felt like

Hashtag endofthebeginning. Oh wow tho, that Bob Marshall defeat by Danica Roem. I'm in tears over here.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:22 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Somehow I entirely missed that voting rights for felons had been reinstated in Virginia

Personal ancedote, our black next door neighbor is the same age as my wife and I, but grew up here before the wave of gentrification that brought us to be next-door nieghbors and did a year for breaking and entering when he was 22 or so. He'd never voted in an election and didn't think he could until we told him about petitioning to get his right to vote back. Unfortunately 2016 was the first time he voted, but today I saw him again on Facebook posting with his "I voted" sticker.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:22 PM on November 7 [108 favorites]


John Curtis (R) has won the special election for UT-03.

This isn't terrible! This is the 16th most Republican seat in the country, but Curtis is a mayor, former Dem turned moderate Republican, and voted against Trump. He will be MUCH better than Chaffetz.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:23 PM on November 7 [29 favorites]


Northam didn't just win VA, he may up crushing Gillespie by close to 10 points.

Murphy in NJ by 15 points.

Wow.
posted by zakur at 7:23 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]




zachlipton, thank you so much for linking to Roem's speech. Her words are great and just SEEING HER SO HAPPY with everyone around her, and hearing the crowd chant her name, was SOOOO GREAT!!!
posted by brainwane at 7:27 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


You made me happy sniffle, T.D. Which is admittedly not tough tonight.
posted by phearlez at 7:28 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I'm in NYC 35th and voted for Brisport, although I only first heard of him last weekend. Cumbo, the Dem incumbent, is not hugely popular and I was very surprised that she won the primary.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:28 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Tom motherfucking Perriello is the motherfucking man.
posted by chris24 at 7:28 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Daily Beast, Ed Gillespie Lost an Election. Then He Was Pulverized by Trump and His Allies?, in which Gillespie is thrown under the bus by Bannonland for not being Trumpy enough:
Even as Bannon publicly voiced support for Gillespie and the Republican ticket, he privately complained about Gillespie’s unwillingness to go “full Trump,” and to actively embrace the president and “economic nationalism.” That, as Bannon and his allies would tell it, is when and how Gillespie lost it.

“Ed Gillespie had no message, was inauthentic, spoke from both sides of his mouth, and at the end of the day, even the deplorables couldn’t save him,” Andrew Surabian, Bannon’s political adviser and former Trump White House official, told The Daily Beast, shortly after Gillespie’s loss on Tuesday evening. “Gillespie campaigned with George W. Bush, [but] ran from President Trump.”
I do hope elected Republicans are taking notes on not-rewarding it is to turn Trump.
posted by zachlipton at 7:28 PM on November 7 [21 favorites]




Here, have a video of Lee Carter leading the crowd in a verse of Solidarity Forever at his victory party.
posted by galaxy rise at 7:30 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Holy shit, two more special election wins. Georgia House 117 and 119 both flip to D.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:31 PM on November 7 [31 favorites]


So if you want to build on this, tomorrow call your congress-people and tell them not to vote for this shitty tax bill that will raise the taxes of middle-class Americans to give a tax cut to millionaires and billionaires. Because we are paying attention, and we're not going to stand for it.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:34 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


@tarapalmeri
[email protected]: "In Virginia, voters by a 2-1 margin said they were casting their ballot to show opposition to Trump rather than support for him. In New Jersey the margin was 3-1."
posted by chris24 at 7:34 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]




@jmartNYT: @RalphNortham can’t even begin victory speech bc pro sanctuary cities activists are heckling him.

I'm firmly in the "vote for the best candidate you've got, then fight like hell to make sure they do the right thing once you've got them elected" camp, but jeez, it's ok to take a couple of hours off in between.
posted by zachlipton at 7:36 PM on November 7 [40 favorites]




HAHAHAHAHA!!!! So. Much Whining.

@JerryFalwellJr
DC should annex NOVA and return the governance of VA to Virginians! The founders intended DC to include all fed employees who are conflicted
posted by chris24 at 7:39 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


History in Minnesota tonight as Andrea Jenkins officially wins a seat on the Minneapolis City Council, becoming the first out trans woman of color elected to public office in America. So far, two trans women elected tonight!

Oh. Is that...? It almost feels like... It is! This is what hope feels like. I'd almost forgotten.

Huzzah!
posted by homunculus at 7:40 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


Y'all. Y'all, y'all, y'all.

This time a year ago I learned that my extreme stress reaction is to pass out. I lost consciousness and woke up in the upside-down.

Since then, I've re-focused. I've called representatives, donated time and money, and done what I can to stop the tide. I've also doubled down on creative efforts, because that business feeds my soul and gives me strength to keep fighting.

Tonight I was too nervous to watch the returns. Instead, I finished a short story and submitted it for the first time since I was 16. And then I checked into this thread to see how things were going, peering through my fingers in case it was too terrible.

And y'all. Y'ALL.

I cannot believe how excited and re-energized I am, and so thrilled to share this moment with everyone in the thread.

I'm ready.
posted by
sgranade at 7:41 PM on November 7 [42 favorites]


Dem GAIN in NJ SD-11. Vin Gopal becomes the first Indian-American senator.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:44 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


Trump in robo-call this afternoon:
Hello, this is President Donald Trump, and so importantly I need you to vote for Ed Gillespie to be your new governor of Virginia. If you let Ralph Northam be governor, he will be a total disaster for your state. Northam is weak on crime, weak on immigration, and as your lieutenant governor, Northam has driven your economy right into a ditch, and he didn’t even show up to the most important meetings. He was always missing and nowhere to be found.

Like me, Ed is tough on crime and on the border. Ed will protect your family from crime, drugs and violence — something Northam will never do. And Ed loves the vets, loves the military, and loves your Second Amendment. With your help, Ed Gillespie will help make America great again, a phrase that I like a lot. Vote Ed Gillespie.
Trump in a tweet this evening:
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for.

How do Trump's supporters not see this bullshit?
posted by zakur at 7:45 PM on November 7 [71 favorites]


Rs spent the whole general going after 12% of the vote. Votes they probably had already.

@DavidLauter (LAT)
VA voters who said immigration was top issue went heavily for Gillespie, but that was only 1 in 8. Health care was top issue for 39% & they went heavily for Northam.
posted by chris24 at 7:45 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


You know who should have seen this coming? This guy:
In 2006, a well connected Republican political consultant penned a warning to a party he feared was drifting toward the fringe.

“Past experience shows that policies that seek to penalize immigration harm my party,” he wrote. In the writer’s home state, the most recent Republican gubernatorial candidate “ran last-minute anti-immigration ads that didn’t move his numbers with swing voters and probably cost him important votes in the El Salvadoran, Guatemalan, and Nicaraguan enclaves of Northern Virginia.”

It was all a recipe for disaster. “Anti-immigration rhetoric is a political siren’s song, and Republicans must resist its lure by lashing ourselves to our party’s twin masts of freedom and growth, or our majority will crash on its shoals.”

The writer was Ed Gillespie, and on Tuesday, he proved his thesis.
posted by zachlipton at 7:45 PM on November 7 [87 favorites]


"VA to Virginians"

Wtf are Richmond and the Peninsula, then? It's not just NoVA who voted Democratic. For some reason conservatives love to pretend it's just Northern Virginia that leans blue.

Also nice no true Scotsman fallacy, you pos.
posted by Tarumba at 7:45 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]




@JerryFalwellJr
DC should annex NOVA and return the governance of VA to Virginians! The founders intended DC to include all fed employees who are conflicted


@DavidLJarman: Sorry dude: if you give Arlington & Alexandria to DC (and go back to the "10 miles square"), Northam still wins 52-46, instead of 54-45.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:47 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


@Nate_Cohn (NYT)
I see some commentary on why Gillespie lost that seems disconnected from what just happened.
He did really well in white rural Virginia! He's going to outperform Romney, Cucc in all sorts of areas.
He was *annihilated* in the suburbs.


@ddale8 Retweeted Nate Cohn
Interesting - Clinton campaign counted on Trump getting annihilated in affluent suburbs nationally; didn't quite happen. Happened tonight in VA:
posted by chris24 at 7:48 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


How do Trump's supporters not see this bullshit?

They do. And to them, it's not a bug, it's a feature. They believe they're on the inside of the con, when their wallets are gonna be picked just like everyone else's.

They believe Trump is a con artist, but they don't believe the con is on them, too.
posted by tclark at 7:48 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]



Dem GAIN in NJ SD-11. Vin Gopal becomes the first Indian-American senator.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:44 PM on November 7 [2 favorites ?] Favorite added! [!]



It's about time, considering the large Indian-American population here.
posted by mollweide at 7:48 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


My Va delegate seat, HD-40, looks like it has flipped from red to blue barring any changes on recount or provisional ballots. This into too surprising, it was in the "reach" category for most pundits. I didn’t want to get my hopes up, Tim Hugo knows how to raise money, had seniority in the republican hierarchy, his office is good at constituent services, and he's actually a nice guy (his kid was on the same baseball team as my nephew). But Donte Tanner is ahead by 68 votes out of 30k cast.
posted by peeedro at 7:49 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Small, but notable. In Medford, Massachusetts, 4 out of 5 Our Revolution Medford endorsed candidates won. In Somerville, all seven Our Revolution Somerville endorsed candidates won.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:50 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Dem GAIN in Atlantic City, NJ mayor race.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:51 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


What does TTTCS mean? I searched, really!
TIA!

posted by jgirl at 7:53 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


It was all a recipe for disaster. “Anti-immigration rhetoric is a political siren’s song, and Republicans must resist its lure by lashing ourselves to our party’s twin masts of freedom and growth, or our majority will crash on its shoals.”


No, fuck you Gillespie, you don't get to use this allusion.

they're not tricks, Michael
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:55 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Turn turn turn curse spit

Lest you tempt the wrath from high atop the thing
posted by schadenfrau at 7:55 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


Interesting - Clinton campaign counted on Trump getting annihilated in affluent suburbs nationally; didn't quite happen. Happened tonight in VA:

I’ve been tweeting this all night at my wealthy suburban GOP/Russia Rep (Rohrabacher), whose district is going blue: VA returns mean it is probably time to retire.
posted by notyou at 7:56 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


The real grassroots nationwide engagement in many of these races is a wondrous thing as well, as Tommy Vietor reminds us:
When we were in Virginia, we met tons of people who traveled from far away to volunteer. Shoutout to @swingleft @Sister_District @flippable_org @IndivisibleTeam @HeadCountOrg for your amazing work.
Also Jason Kander and Let America Vote.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:56 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


What does TTTCS mean? I searched, really!

It was a 2016 election thread thing, a West Wing reference. Explained in the archived wiki, so no wonder you didn't find it (and for definitions of other nonsense).
posted by
zachlipton at 7:56 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


So the Write In campaign to unseat Cy Vance as Manhattan DA, the one organized three weeks before the election? Got a little over 10% of the vote.

That is insane.
posted by The Whelk at 7:57 PM on November 7 [51 favorites]


you guys I am totally delirious
posted by lalex at 7:57 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


What's next is the elections - note the plural - in your municipalities. Find out where and when. The Koch brothers have a full-time shit-slinger on the payroll, with the express purpose of depleting our school system's Rainy Day Fund and I am not even kidding, closing down the Library forever and selling the land to the highest bidder.

You see, our town pays the second highest property tax in our little New England county! We also pay the sixth lowest property tax in the state entire, and even as it's a little state, we still have 28 towns and cities. And we have no tourism or industry compared to our neighbors, nor capability in obtaining either, and we still do damn well. Damn. Well. They ignore or deflect this little sticking point, lemme tell ya.

A paid professional lobbyist is trying to rip away education funding and close our library. He lives in Narragansett, way across the bay, the fucker. He's a paid, professional Facebook troll with a fancy office out in Narragansett.

My situation is not unique. It is your situation.

Know when the election is, and goddamn vote, or the Koch-creature wins!
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:57 PM on November 7 [28 favorites]




the celebratory margaritas have been consumed. repeat: the celebratory margaritas have been consumed.
posted by Justinian at 7:58 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]


So the Write In campaign to unseat Cy Vance as Manhattan DA, the one organized three weeks before the election? Got a little over 10% of the vote.

I really fucking wish we had recall elections.
posted by lalex at 8:01 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I think you mean the first celebratory margaritas, Justinian, no?

Off home to drink whiskey in honour of you all.
posted by Pink Frost at 8:01 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Also it looks like Ginger Jentzen is gonna win, putting 3 socialists in office along side a bunch of nominated and supported candidates.
posted by The Whelk at 8:01 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Dems hold on in Michigan HD-109. This had been considered a good pickup opportunity for the GOP.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:01 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


It might be the happy gin tonight.
posted by Artw at 8:02 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


wooooooow @Will Jordan:

Whoa. Let's not lose sight of the youth vote here.

Dem margins in VA among 18-29 year olds:

McAuliffe +5
Clinton +18
Northam ... +39

posted by lalex at 8:03 PM on November 7 [50 favorites]


Dem GAIN as they win mayor of Annapolis, MD.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:03 PM on November 7 [21 favorites]




Yeah I mean the Dem who won NJ is a Goldman scams guy but you know all of this is good

This is good

We’re good.

Jabari Didn’t win but he soundly beat the republican in the race.and got a thousands of people to vote in a midterm city council election for someone under a socialist party line.
posted by The Whelk at 8:06 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]




@JerryFalwellJr
DC should annex NOVA and return the governance of VA to Virginians! The founders intended DC to include all fed employees who are conflicted


Funny, last time Virginia kicked out "Real Virginians" it was because they didn't accept slavery and it became West Virginia.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:07 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


DSA looking pretty good tho; they had a candidate win city council in freaking KNOXVILLE.
posted by lalex at 8:08 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]


what’s the market on GOP congressional retirements in the next two weeks? 4-7? I completely made that up, but sounds possible!
posted by schadenfrau at 8:08 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Dems +14, need 3 more for control."

@JessicaPost
Flipping 14 seats from red to blue in VA is the biggest Democratic pick-up since 1899.
posted by chris24 at 8:10 PM on November 7 [67 favorites]


Nikuyah Walker, a black woman running as an independent and backed by the Democratic Socialists of Charlottesville, won election to the Charlottesville city council, beating out one of the two Democrats who were running.
posted by dhens at 8:10 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


Some caution on generalizing VA's results to a state like Pennsylvania. @joshscacco: In PA Supreme Court race, Dem counties that went for Trump (e.g. Luzerne, Lackawanna, Northampton, Lehigh, Erie) have failed to swing back toward Dem nominee at top of ticket. Similar trends in smaller western PA counties.

Supreme Court races are different, but yeah, still a lot of work to do.
posted by zachlipton at 8:10 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Was busy all evening and just saw the news! *High five!* *High five!* *High fives all around!* Holy shit. Wow!
posted by HotToddy at 8:10 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Someone did the math on what would happen if Arlington and Alexandria went back to DC; Northam would still have won by 6 points.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Yeah, the PA Supreme Court thing is very frustrating. Woodruff looks like he'll lose by about 3 points.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:12 PM on November 7


The dem who won NJ has been making a lot of progressive-y noises, and emphasizing them. Like a public bank, higher minimum wage, etc. More than just the standard bipartisan jobs 'n infrastructure.

He comes off kind of weird in his ads but he came off very well in the longer conversation on Pod Save America.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 8:12 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I wonder what Dem seats the GOP flipped tonight around the country. I’m guessing it’s not a very long list.
posted by azpenguin at 8:14 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Washington State has posted some ballot #s. Manka Dhingra is currently ahead by more than 10%. King County has about 90% of ballots counted.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:14 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Are there...any? I've only seen a couple of R retentions.
posted by lalex at 8:14 PM on November 7


Well! I guess I had better go to bed. This has been a weird, exhilarating experience. More like this please! And I promise to get my boots back on the ground for the next one. Onward!
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:14 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Should note that the DSA guy (Lee Miller) who unseated the GOP whip in the House of Delegates was not getting a whole lot of help from the state dems.
posted by dhens at 8:14 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


I hope the lessons of this midterm sink in,

Socialism isn’t a dirty word anymore, Medicare for all is Extremly popular, a move to the left is a tactical win.
posted by The Whelk at 8:15 PM on November 7 [74 favorites]


> Remember the local TV correspondent fatally shot on air? Her boyfriend decided to run for office in honor of her memory, and won an upset.

More on Chris Hurst: "To honor her life, Hurst, a former news anchor, ran for state office on a gun control platform — against an NRA-endorsed Republican incumbent."

I think gun control is going to be an increasingly successful platform to run on. More like this please.
posted by homunculus at 8:15 PM on November 7 [66 favorites]


Here's the state of play on VA House. Dems have picked up 14 seats. They need three more to take control. ALl regular votes are counted. Provisional and (I think) absentee are still out there. And of course, we could have recounts.

Current counts are
27 D trails 124
28 D trails 86
40 D leads 68
68 D leads 526
94 D trails 42
We're likely to hold on to the two leads. We would need just one of the other three, most likely HD-94.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:15 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


Some caution on generalizing VA's results to a state like Pennsylvania

Dems don't have to win back all the WWC Obama->Trump voters. AZ/VA/FL or AZ/VA/GA/NC is a winning map that relies on younger, more educated, increasingly diverse states in place of the lost rust belt, not even counting Michigan or Wisconsin.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:17 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


Goddammit, then Wasserman tweets the same damned thing but with better info:
#HD27 (Chesterfield): Del. Robinson (R) up by 129 votes.
#HD28 (F'burg): Thomas (R) up by 86.
#HD40 (Fairfax): Tanner (D) up by 68.
#HD68 (Richmond): Adams (D) up by 316.
#HD94 (Newport News): Del. Yancey (R) up by 12.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Dems don't have to win back all the WWC Obama->Trump voters. AZ/VA/FL or AZ/VA/GA/NC is a winning map that relies on younger, more educated, increasingly diverse states in place of the lost rust belt, not even counting Michigan or Wisconsin.

True. I do care, because I live here, and I would like my state to stop being so shitty. But from a national perspective, it may matter less than you would think, I agree.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:18 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


History made in my suburban Philadelphia county -- Democrats flipped the council and other county positions for the first time.
posted by gladly at 8:19 PM on November 7 [41 favorites]


So, uh, what does VA's constitution say about ties in the House? It calls out the Lt Gov as a tie-breaking vote in the Senate (V.14) but there aren't (as far as I'm aware) any mentions of ties in the House. In my lifetime I recall there was a 50/49/1(independent) but I don't think there's been a 50/50 House split. I literally have no idea how they'd handle it.

I mean... uh, asking for a friend.
posted by introp at 8:19 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Here's a thread on Twitter about it. Power-sharing, but with some areas not yet clear.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:22 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Per CNN, WA seat flipped changing the WA senate!!
posted by chris24 at 8:22 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


> "[Krasner] represented Black Lives Matter activists, who then campaigned for him"

More on Krasner: “Completely Unelectable” Progressive Larry Krasner Wins DA’s Race. He beat Republican Beth Grossman by more than 40 percentage points
Most of Krasner’s opponents, including Grossman, were longtime prosecutors. Krasner, on the other hand, has never worked for the DA’s office a day in his life. He is a civil rights and defense attorney who has represented Black Lives Matter and Occupy Philly. He’s also sued the police department and City Hall more than 75 times, and promised never to seek the death penalty or bring cases based on illegal searches. Krasner once joked that he’d “spent a career becoming completely unelectable.”

When Krasner takes office in January, he won’t only be one of the most progressive politicians in Philly. He’s also be one of the most progressive DAs in the country. Maybe even the most progressive, in fact. Earlier this week, the Atlantic wrote that “Krasner wouldn’t be the first ‘reform-minded’ prosecutor to take office, a term used to describe the growing cohort of district and state’s attorneys vowing to overhaul cash bail, abolish the death penalty, and crack down on police corruption. But he would be the most progressive in this pool, a distinction that takes on extra weight at a time when the Justice Department is moving right.”
posted by homunculus at 8:23 PM on November 7 [64 favorites]


Fox is currently talking about Fusion GPS.
posted by lalex at 8:24 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]




chris24: "Per CNN, WA seat flipped changing the WA senate!!"

BLUE WALL MOTHERFUCKERS
posted by Chrysostom at 8:24 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


I've honestly been avoiding any news about these elections, fearing the absolute worst outcome. This has been amazing to read. I can sleep a little more soundly tonight.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:25 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


That Maine Medicaid victory will energize efforts in other states to get it on the ballot as a referendum/initiative. Idaho voters are trying to do so right now.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:26 PM on November 7 [36 favorites]


Oh, when interpreting NJ results, keep in mind that Chris Christie was a huge deviation from the norm. Normally we're really, really solid blue -
so much so that I think of us as a cautionary tale against single-party control, sometimes. Christie got in because the dems got shitty. This year's governor's race was always going to be a lock for the dems. The only uncertainty came from the fact that it's 2017 and everything is a nightmare.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 8:27 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


When you've lost Santorum... Let the right have a circular firing squad for a while.

@aravosis
Wow, Rick Santorum just said on cnn that @realDonaldTrump’s rhetoric, and tweeting, caused the GOP’s Virginia defeat.
posted by chris24 at 8:28 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


Some caution on generalizing VA's results to a state like Pennsylvania. @joshscacco: In PA Supreme Court race, Dem counties that went for Trump (e.g. Luzerne, Lackawanna, Northampton, Lehigh, Erie) have failed to swing back toward Dem nominee at top of ticket. Similar trends in smaller western PA counties.

One thing to keep in mind about PA is that there are 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in PA. The trick here is getting dems to the polls.
posted by mcduff at 8:29 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Here in Michigan we had mostly local elections going on. Some points of interest:
-Detroit voted Yes on some weed proposals.
-Dearborn saw 4 Arab-Americans and 3 women elected to city council - highest numbers ever for both groups
-Most school millages passed
posted by palindromic at 8:29 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]


Provisional and (I think) absentee are still out there.

I believe absentee votes are included in the current totals. If you drill down to the precinct level on the Virginia Department of Elections site, there are totals for "# AB - Central Absentee Precinct" for all the races.
posted by peeedro at 8:29 PM on November 7


Unfortunately, the MO 8th State Senate race went to the big money Republican (Cierpot) - Turk running as an independent didn't split the vote as much as I'd hoped, but Shields ran a competitive race and did pretty darn well for someone with no political background and a tough uphill battle (50-42-8 was the final split).
posted by jferg at 8:29 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Dems GAIN in Lynn, MA mayor

("Lynn, Lynn, city of sin")
posted by Chrysostom at 8:30 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Oh, when interpreting NJ results, keep in mind that Chris Christie was a huge deviation from the norm. Normally we're really, really solid blue

I mean... sorta... but Christie Todd Whitman was (Republican) governor from 1994-2001 too. So Republicans have held the governorship for like 13 of the last 23 years.
posted by Justinian at 8:30 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


Dems were having a good cycle for candidate recruitment anyway, but this will juice things even more. And as some have mentioned, drive more R retirements.
posted by chris24 at 8:30 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


That Maine Medicaid victory will energize efforts in other states to get it on the ballot as a referendum/initiative. Idaho voters are trying to do so right now.

And I'm pretty sure we can now count on Susan Collins as a solid NO vote for ACA repeal.
posted by lalex at 8:30 PM on November 7 [21 favorites]


i uh.

may or may not have had a hand in that HD68 race
posted by dogheart at 8:30 PM on November 7 [54 favorites]


also not to downplay this, Christie was elected in 2009 and I suspect he was the early edge of the anti-Obama wave. We do have our fair share of racists and Republicans.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 8:31 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Andy Slavitt (heath care campaigner who ran CMS under Obama) tweeted about how many people in Maine will get coverage under Medicaid expansion, but autocorrect caused him to say "80,000 Mariners will get Medicaid coverage" instead of "Mainers."

The Seattle Mariners respond: "We...we don’t have that many players."
posted by zachlipton at 8:31 PM on November 7 [76 favorites]


I'm favoriting each announcement of a Democratic win, and I'm concerned about running out of favorites for the day.

SO
MUCH
WINNING

but for real, tho
posted by tonycpsu at 8:32 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]


Bleh, GOP holds on in the special for Missouri Senate 8.

This was the one where the Dem was the leader of the local Indivisible chapter. It was always a stretch, but she seemed good.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:32 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


The two seats Dems picked up in GA were previously so Republican they were uncontested in 2016.
posted by chris24 at 8:32 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


Don't forget to donate / volunteer etc. for Doug Jones in Alabama! The 2017 party doesn't have to end!
posted by dhens at 8:33 PM on November 7 [44 favorites]


Today is my birthday. I joked this morning that all I wanted was a progressive democrat sweep. Checking in now on the results after finishing birthday festivities and am very pleased. You're all welcome.

(Last year I got Trump for my belated birthday.)
posted by geegollygosh at 8:33 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]




Dem GAIN in Fayetteville, NC mayor. I believe this was the largest city in NC with a GOP mayor.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:35 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


Turns out people really do want health insurance, no matter what their idiot governor says.

THIS.

Now people like Donna Wall will have access to health care. Wall lost her Medicaid coverage last year: When her twin sons turned 18, she became a childless adult in the eyes of the program.

Wall, a single parent, works every day of the year except for Christmas. All three of her children are developmentally disabled -- severely so in the case of the twins, who are nonverbal, while their 21-year-old sister is considered high-functioning.

Full disclosure: I work for this newspaper, but I was not involved in the assigning, writing, or editing of the above-linked news article, written by Portland Press Herald health care reporter Joe Lawlor and photographed by staff photographer Brianna Soukup.
posted by virago at 8:36 PM on November 7 [45 favorites]


First GOP pickup of the day - NJ SD-02. Come on, Jersey!
posted by Chrysostom at 8:38 PM on November 7


@samswey
States where voters can expand Medicaid through ballot initiative, like Maine is doing today:
FL
ID
MO
MS
NE
OK
SD
UT
WY
posted by chris24 at 8:38 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Dem GAIN in New Jersey AD-02.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:39 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


Don't forget to donate / volunteer etc. for Doug Jones in Alabama! The 2017 party doesn't have to end!

Oh dear god yes, Moore needs to be made a horror, a proverb, and a byword among all peoples.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:39 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


I used to live in Virginia's Tidewater region and while it's no surprise to see Norfolk and Portsmouth solid blue, a bit to the east is the half-million people in Virginia Beach, which is home to a major Navy air station and amphibious and SEALs base at Little Creek. And all the people who work in support jobs there. It was the home of crooked ex-Gov. Bob McDonnell and where he launched his political career.

And even Virginia Beach went blue, 52-47. Very happy for my old friends and neighbors, some of whom canvassed for Northam. And for friends in my previous home of Annapolis, Md., which elected as mayor a progressive Democrat, Gavin Buckley, over a Trumper. A friend of mine who worked for Buckley just posted a picture of herself getting a hug from Martin O'Malley. So happy for my friends who are feeling joy, hope, redemption and can look forward to decent government again.
posted by martin q blank at 8:39 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


chris24: "@JessicaPost
Flipping 14 seats from red to blue in VA is the biggest Democratic pick-up since 1899.
"

@PoliticsReid: DLCC folks told me they only said since 1899 because they couldn't find results before 1899.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:42 PM on November 7 [49 favorites]


@KSoltisAnderson (ABC, pollster)
Getting sleep, but final thought: The data out of SW VA suggest maybe you can turn your campaign into a McTrump franchise, somewhat, but that's of limited value in a state Trump lost.


@chrislhayes Retweeted Kristen S Anderson
this is really important: the Trump appeal *worked* in the most hard-core trump areas, which moved even further towards Gillespie. The backlash was just much much bigger
posted by chris24 at 8:42 PM on November 7 [46 favorites]


George Latimer wins Westchester County Executive, a D pickup. His opponent, Rob Astorino, ran for governor against Cuomo and was looking at another run, though this could halt those plans.
posted by zachlipton at 8:43 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


so...are there any elections left?
posted by lalex at 8:43 PM on November 7


so...are there any elections left?

I hope not, I'm almost out of Midori
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:44 PM on November 7 [15 favorites]


If Somerset County ever gets their act together and finishes reporting results, there will hopefully be some good news out of NJ LD-16. (TTTCS)
posted by booksherpa at 8:45 PM on November 7


what is even going on west of the mississippi tho
posted by lalex at 8:46 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


Nassau County exec. There's an interesting special in GA where Dems could take both of the top two spots in a GOP held district.

Minny and St Paul mayor races.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:48 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


More of Not Just VA.

@DavidPepper (OH Dems chair)
Run everywhere!

Warren County is Ohio's most Republican County. Not one D elected official before today.

Now there are 5!
posted by chris24 at 8:48 PM on November 7 [71 favorites]


Dem GAIN in NJ SD-07.

Dems net one seat in the NJ Senate overall.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:50 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Dem GAIN for Nassau County, NY Executive.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:52 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Nothing to see here!

Sure, maybe you can say this about the Gov races, but you just lost a 16 seat majority in the VA HoD. Among many other losses in other states.

@GOPChairwoman
Two blue states stayed blue, that doesn’t change the support we’ve seen nationwide for @POTUS. Our unprecedented fundraising and permanent groundgame have us ready for 2018.
posted by chris24 at 8:53 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


what is even going on west of the mississippi tho

Washington State Senate may have flipped to blue.

Also, regardless of which candidate wins the race (both Democrats), Seattle will have its first woman mayor since 1926.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:55 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


Reviewing the now-concluded FiveThirtyEight liveblog's mentions of results to watch:

VA-GOV/LG/AG: Dem hold
Heavily gerrymandered VA House of Delegates: too close to call (aka TIDAL WAVE)
NJ-GOV: Dem FLIP
NYC-Mayor: Dem hold
Maine Medicaid expansion: YES
UT-03: GOP hold (booo)
WA state senate: Dem FLIP
St. Pete mayor: Dem hold
Manchester mayor: Dem FLIP
Charlotte mayor: Dem hold
First trans legislator vs. author of the bathroom bill: POETIC AS HELL DEM FLIP

DID I MENTION TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY???
posted by Rhaomi at 8:56 PM on November 7 [118 favorites]


Two blue states stayed blue, that doesn’t change the support we’ve seen nationwide for @POTUS. Our unprecedented fundraising and permanent groundgame have us ready for 2018.

When I used Google’s translate feature it came up with “I seem to have shit my pants in fear”.
posted by Talez at 8:56 PM on November 7 [38 favorites]


The school district mill levy override I canvassed for passed. It's the first funding increase since 2000 for Colorado Springs' largest school district. The article says that 30,000 doors were knocked, and I did about 600 of those. I'm really happy. It feels weird. Watching this thread has been awesome. Glad for some good news and all of you lovely folks to share it with.
posted by danielleh at 8:59 PM on November 7 [31 favorites]


@cathleendecker (LAT)
Suburban repudiation of President Trump: Prince William County, your basic bellwether, went to Northam by 23 points.


@RonBrownstein (Atlantic) Retweeted Cathleen Decker
Northam won Fairfax County by 137k votes, a bigger margin than it gave Obama in '12, which was a presidential year turnout (!). He won 68% there, vs 58% for McAuliffe 13, Warner 14 & > than Clinton's 64% there. Wow.
posted by chris24 at 8:59 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


Durkan defeats Moon to win Seattle mayor handily.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:02 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


The major stuff still out that I know of:

special in GA SD-06
Atlanta mayor
Minneapolis mayor
St. Paul mayor
posted by Chrysostom at 9:04 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]




what a night
posted by lalex at 9:08 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


It looks like the Senate seat in NJ LD-16 will stay Republican, but the Democrats picked up the other Assembly seat and now hold both, so +1 for Dems in the Assembly.

And all the Republicans in NJ LD-23 didn't win by as big a landslide as last time, so that's something...
posted by booksherpa at 9:10 PM on November 7


@tomsherwood (NBC)
Hard right Corey Stewart out with his analysis:
“Ed Gillespie refused to stand with the grassroots..refused to fight ultra left wing...Tonight was a humiliating rejection of the failed Bush wing of the Republican Party." @kojoshow

@ddale8 (Toronto Star) Retweeted Tom Sherwood
Amazing. Stewart said this weekend, “It feels like my campaign, doesn’t it? I feel vindicated by it.”
- Trump, Stewart and Breitbart are all trying to erase the memory of Gillespie running on the hard-right “nationalist” race/immigration playbook.
posted by chris24 at 9:10 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


The Maine Medicaid victory will energize efforts in other states to get it on the ballot as a referendum/initiative. Idaho voters are trying to do so right now.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for them! Don't give up hope!

Medicaid expansion passed the Maine Legislature five times -- FIVE -- but the Legislature could never muster the votes to override Gov. LeRage's inevitable veto.

Though I voted for expansion today, I didn't dare to be optimistic about its prospects. I've rarely been so happy to have been proven wrong.
posted by virago at 9:13 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]


I read here on the blue that the thing Republicans figured out a few decades ago was that in order to really take over, they needed to start small, and start local. Start turning things around there, then work your way up, and you've got the federal government. And we often remind ourselves here that local elections matter — we can't just get worked up over the presidential election (though that's obviously important) and ignore all else.

Well, that @nedoliver tweet cited above (noting that Virginia alone elected the first transgender delegate in the US, the first out lesbian delegate in the state, the first Asian American woman delegate in the state, the first two Latina delegates in the state, and the first Democratic Socialist candidate in the state) gives me hope that perhaps our side has gotten the memo. We're seeing socialists/democratic socialists getting elected in local elections around the country tonight as well, the former Liberian refugee that lalex just referenced, the victories by Indian Americans in New Jersey, and a bunch more I'm forgetting right now in my margarita-hazed delirium.

More encouraging is the observation that, broadly speaking, taking a clearly progressive, leftist stand and not apologizing for it actually appears to be a winning strategy in many places. I'm beginning to wonder if 2018 is going to be full of local Democratic primaries where candidates are climbing over each other to be the first to support single-payer, universal basic income, and free weekly cake deliveries for everyone.

(OK, maybe not, but it's a nice dream.)

It's nice to have a pleasant night in politics, for a change.
posted by CommonSense at 9:14 PM on November 7 [35 favorites]


Melvin Carter wins St. Paul, MN mayor race outright (avoiding mucking with the ranked choice voting).

He's a Dem, and first black mayor of St. Paul.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:15 PM on November 7 [38 favorites]


It could have been better in Washington and Seattle, but I'll take the state senate flipping because finally we can actually talk about a real public school funding fix vs the joke the Republicans pushed through.
posted by dw at 9:17 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


Corey Stewart is the frontrunner in the 2018 Va senate race against Tim Kaine. Laugh at him all you want, but he's not planning to slink away in shame. He held a rally last week where he called democrats "criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos" and added some transphobic jabs at Danica Roem for lols.
posted by peeedro at 9:17 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


As someone who has been a nightmare of negative energy lately all I can say right now is that I am incredibly relieved. Dems have a fighting chance of reversing a decade of gerrymanding in VA. The turnout rate is up which is nice. This election has definitely convinced me that GOTV and convincing people not to trust polls is the key for Dems winning off year elections.
posted by cyphill at 9:17 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


Fingers crossed for getting rid of Urquhart as King County (Seattle) Sheriff, too.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:18 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


It's been said before, but Roem is not the first trans delegate. That was Althea Garrison in 1992.
posted by greermahoney at 9:19 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Dems guaranteed a gain of Georgia Senate-06, as Dems take the top two spots for the runoff for the currently GOP held seat.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:19 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


booksherpa: "It looks like the Senate seat in NJ LD-16 will stay Republican, but the Democrats picked up the other Assembly seat and now hold both, so +1 for Dems in the Assembly. "

Dems +2 in the Assembly for the night, fyi.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:20 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


We do have our fair share of racists and Republicans.

But I repeat myself.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:20 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


First black, first black woman, first trans, first asian woman, first latina woman, first Sikh, first refugee, etc. etc. Quite the repudiation of white supremacy and bigotry.

@CharlotteAlter (Time)
A trans woman beat the guy who introduced the bathroom bill. A gun victim's boyfriend beat a delegate with an "A" grade from the NRA. A civil rights lawyer who sued the police department just became the top prosecutor in Philadelphia.

Something's happening here, folks.


@KristenClarkeJD
African Americans were elected mayor for 1st time:
Statesboro GA, Jonathan McCollar
Georgetown SC, Brendan Barber
Milledgeville GA, Mary Parham Copelan
Helena MT, Wilmot Collins
Cairo GA, Booker Gainor
St Paul MN, Melvin Carter
&
Charlotte NC --> Vi Lyles, 1st Black female mayor
posted by chris24 at 9:21 PM on November 7 [63 favorites]


Melvin Carter winning St Paul is also notable as he was victim of a smear mailer by the police union that insinuated that all crimes committed were done with a gun stolen from his house in a robbery. Seriously.
posted by misterpatrick at 9:22 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]


Numerous small towns with mayor flips, not going to track them all. But Dems are doing well all over.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:24 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]


and numerous DSA member elections in towns and small cities, strong showing in the Rust Belt!
posted by The Whelk at 9:26 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]




Yes, that too!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:27 PM on November 7


@Redistrict Dave Wasserman
BREAKING: Dawn Adams (D) has unseated Del. Manoli Loupassi (R) in Richmond's #HD68. Dems +15, need 2 more for control. 3 GOP seats left outstanding.
posted by chris24 at 9:27 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


@McClainJulie: Of the 15 Republican-held seats that were flipped tonight in Virginia, 11 were by @emilyslist endorsed women.

May this just be the beginning of a wave of women for 2018.
posted by zachlipton at 9:33 PM on November 7 [88 favorites]


Good performance by POCs in Virginia House races, too!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:34 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


It's time to make the republicans very, very scared, and the democrats very scared. It's time for socialism.
posted by codacorolla at 9:39 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]


Charlotte NC --> Vi Lyles, 1st Black female mayor

even sweeter because this was the race where one of her opponents was openly running on being white
posted by murphy slaw at 9:39 PM on November 7 [18 favorites]


The NY constitutional convention is down by about 66 points, which seems difficult to overcome with the remaining three percent of precincts.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:46 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


The press may have forgotten Heather Heyer, but Virginians did not.

@Redistrict
Across VA today, raw votes cast were up 16% vs. '13.

In Charlottesville, raw votes cast were up 31%.
posted by chris24 at 9:46 PM on November 7 [53 favorites]


Despite depressingly low ballot return in my county (~21%), with most of the ballots counted I am happy to say that the (suspected) Libertarian did not get onto the city council. Losing by 50 points if nothing changes.
posted by monopas at 9:49 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]


Just wanted to say thanks to all the Metafilterians who got out and did work. This is your night.
posted by Sphinx at 9:51 PM on November 7 [55 favorites]


So I've been away from the politics threads because I felt like I was starting to get really bleak and it was affecting my mental health. Also I have some kind of virus or possibly strep so I didn't even go vote today, since there were no positions up in my district of rural Texas.

Coming into this thread late knowing it all turns out and getting to skip all the dread has been enjoyable. Also I'm a little sad that Djuna Osborne only got 39% in District 17 of VA because I wrote my 100 postcards for her. But otherwise, it pretty heartening.
posted by threeturtles at 9:53 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]


Compete. Everywhere.

@steffdaz (Newsday)
BREAKING: @LauraAGillen declares victory in @HempsteadTown supervisor race, per @NassauDems.


@BrodskyRobert (Newsday) Retweeted Stefanie Dazio
This cannot be over stated. This is stunning. Never in 100 years has a Democrat won Hempstead
posted by chris24 at 9:55 PM on November 7 [41 favorites]


Oh what a night
Doo doo doo doo doo
posted by medusa at 9:57 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I'm having a low key socialist conga line, anarchists can join too.
posted by The Whelk at 9:59 PM on November 7 [30 favorites]




Hey Chrysostom, take a bow. You've been extraordinarily informative and helpful tonight and all year, and your posts have helped focus attention, donations, and volunteers toward unexpected places. Thank you.
posted by zachlipton at 10:01 PM on November 7 [166 favorites]


Hey Chrysostom, take a bow.

hugest possible co-sign
posted by lalex at 10:05 PM on November 7 [38 favorites]


Yes, Chrysostom, your updates contributed directly to my becoming more involved in another state's elections than I've ever been in even a local one. Thanks.
posted by contraption at 10:06 PM on November 7 [35 favorites]


[wind ruffles the hair of an almost cruelly handsome man, as he stares into the distance with steely gray eyes]

"Just doing my job."

Thanks, guys.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:07 PM on November 7 [201 favorites]


In better news from PA, Dems held onto mayorships in Allentown, Erie, and Scranton, all of which are Trump-y areas.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:08 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


whoa @J. Miles Coleman (who is a good follow for election data nerds): "Northam cracked 80% in Arlington? Good God."
posted by lalex at 10:11 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


you know that gif of oprah dancing gleefully while bees attack everyone? tonight i am oprah, sans bees.

you're goddamn right i'm high
posted by palomar at 10:12 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]


Bob Marshall's sister, actress Paula Marshall, weighs in. (Link is to an image on Twitter.)
posted by rewil at 10:14 PM on November 7 [32 favorites]


Congratulations Americans, I'm beaming big smiles across the Pacific atcha.
posted by valetta at 10:17 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


I said this on twitter but - Some detail, I point my actual non-selfish political awakening to Occupy, because a lot of people I knew got involved and it felt like, for a moment, the system tripped. And I always defended it cause it moved the overton window so much, you couldn't say income inequality on national TV before 08 - a lot of people got radicalized and then we pretended it didn't happen.

and it feels like something similar, but faster and stronger, is happening now - can you imagine there being major media stories about Socialist candidates in the US 3 years ago?

and then a bunch of them winning?
posted by The Whelk at 10:21 PM on November 7 [43 favorites]


I needed this so much, you guys. This past year has been such a nightmare. Literally. I've had panic attacks, depression, problems sleeping. You've all helped to keep me sane to this point.

I just set up a recurring weekly donation to Doug Jones for more than I've ever donated to a candidate, and signed up to volunteer. Even if he doesn't win, if we can make the Kochs spend a ton of money in what should be a gimme, it's worth it.
posted by KGMoney at 10:27 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Thank you, everyone. Just...thanks.
posted by maxwelton at 10:28 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]


also Tom Periello is a fucking hero, and the party had better find a place for him if he wants it. Way to set an example of how the Bernie and establishment wings of the party can work together.
posted by lalex at 10:28 PM on November 7 [47 favorites]


My assumption is that Periello can write his own ticket at this point. I hope so.
posted by Justinian at 10:29 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]


I'm just so happy right now. I'm happy drinking for once.

* cheers to all of you that got off your butt and did something *
posted by numaner at 10:29 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]


The Occasional Dana: via Rohrabacher’s twitter feed (9:22 pm): “My statement on the current Congressional Tax Reform efforts.”
I am studying the various provisions of the House tax bill and I am participating in serious discussions with my fellow Republican colleagues about its contents. My goal is passing a tax reform bill that does not increase the taxes being paid by any of my constituents.

?By the time this bill gets through the entire legislative process, having been acted upon by both the House and the Senate and is signed by the President, it will likely be a dramatically different piece of legislation. I will be doing my best to see that when all of the provisions of the tax bill are brought to bear, the tax load on my constituents will be less, not more.
Trumpist GOP/Russia reps in purple districts are running scared after VA!
posted by notyou at 10:34 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]


I'm ridiculously grateful for this tiny ray of hope. Up and at 'em!
posted by wintersweet at 10:36 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]


I just remembered that Gillespie got all nativist and involved in protecting Confederate "heritage" even though he grew up in the Jersey burbs and is the son of an Irish immigrant and a new wave of ecstasy washed over me
posted by lalex at 10:37 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


Frankly, I'm not sure how tiny it is.
posted by codacorolla at 10:38 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Echoing many others tonight in saying *THANK YOU* to every person who:
Voted
Worked on campaigns, paid or volunteer
Canvassed
Donated money
Donated time
Wrote postcards
Called
Texted
Kept us (and others) informed
Got people registered
Drove people to the polls
Worked the polls
Relentlessly begged for help
Had respectful conversations with people on the other side of the political spectrum that may have swayed them. At all.
And anything else I'm forgetting in my dopamine and gin induced haze.

You did this. You wonderful people did this. Thank you thank you thank you. We are in your debt.

Now let's do it all again.
posted by greermahoney at 10:38 PM on November 7 [45 favorites]


I don't regret the dozens of postcards I wrote for a Utah district. The Dem only got 26%, but maybe one voter decided to go to the polls because of a card I sent.
posted by xyzzy at 10:39 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]


@Matt Hirschy: "Tonight, North Carolina elected 6 more openly #LGBTQ elected leaders. There will now be 19 across the state in various offices. INCREDIBLE!"

people keep rearranging the election results in new and amazing ways and I can't get enough
posted by lalex at 10:41 PM on November 7 [58 favorites]


In my occasional domicile of Peekskill, NY the truly awful Trumpian incumbent Mayor Frank Catalina has lost to Andre Rainey, a young black Councilman. The Dems also took the Council. This was an ugly race, and two of republican Council candidates were able to get on the Dem primary ticket (and it was upheld in court). Westchester County was pretty much a Dem sweep!
posted by kimdog at 10:50 PM on November 7 [17 favorites]


Me: This is good incremental work, and a big boost to the legitimacy of your movement
Also Me: KEEP THE RED FLAG FLYING HERE
posted by The Whelk at 10:53 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Argh. In my epic thank you comment, I neglected to mention the mods. Thank you, mods. We wouldn't be here celebrating tonight without you.
posted by greermahoney at 10:54 PM on November 7 [40 favorites]


It continues to amaze me how the backlash/blue sweep is affecting the tiniest, littlest minor races everywhere you look. Mayor of Peekskill, NY? I'm pretty sure this wasn't on most of our radars, but . . . hey, sure, why not?
posted by CommonSense at 10:55 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]


CONTEST. EVERY. RACE.
posted by lalex at 10:57 PM on November 7 [40 favorites]


Looks like Atlanta's mayoral runoff candidates will be Bottoms and Norwood. I confess I don't know a lot about the dynamics of Atlanta's civic government.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:00 PM on November 7


Politico: Could America’s Socialists Become the Tea Party of the Left? -- No longer happy to languish in principled irrelevance, socialists are plotting a Sanders-like insurgency inside the Democratic Party.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


From @amandalitman: "BIG @runforsomething WINNER!!! In Atlanta, GA, @LilianaforATL is the first queer Muslim to ever win elected office. She's 29. SHE'S AMAZING."

Might be premature. The AJC shows Archibong eking out a slim victory, 5003 to 475 with 100% reporting.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta mayoral race looks like it will be going to a run-off between Bottoms, the hand-picked successor to the out-going Mayor Reed, and Norwood, a closet Republican.Bottoms is up (heh) 27% to 21% with 95% reporting.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:01 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]


And the Minneapolis mayor count is expected to take another day or two, as no one cleared 50%, and the counting for ranked choices takes longer, I guess.

I think that's it for the big races, but keep 'em coming. (Dems have flipped mayor of Loveland, CO!).
posted by Chrysostom at 11:04 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]


Meanwhile, in Chester County, PA, "Since its incorporation in the 1700s, the county has never elected a Democrat to one of the nine row office positions, and currently the only countywide official from the party is a minority commissioner post mandated by law."

Tonight, all four Democrats won. All women.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:13 PM on November 7 [66 favorites]




OMG, this is so petty.
Urquhart, who has been critical of The Seattle Times’ coverage of the sexual abuse allegations made against him, sent its reporter to a non-existent campaign party across town from where the sheriff showed up Tuesday night at Shaun O’Donnell’s American Grill and Irish Pub in the Smith Tower. When the reporter tracked him down, Urquhart said he had sent the reporter to the wrong place as a “joke.”

Urquhart declined to comment on what made the difference in the early returns, saying, “I think I’ll analyze that over the next few days.”
posted by dw at 11:24 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]


O thank holy fuck.

I've been dodging away from the political threads for the last few days - the idea of being just a short tap away from a constitutional convention was enough to make me want to cry - and I was nervous as hell about tonight. I knew Northam was favored and a lot of calls and cards and everything had been done, but there was a lot of gerrymandering to get past, and a lot of lies and racism and sexism and worse, and all the usual apathy of off-year elections.

I am breathing easy for the first time in months.

It won't last, and I know this isn't "relax and slide into a socialist utopia." But for the first time in the last year, I feel like we actually might take our country back from the kleptobigots who want to steal everything they can and shit on everything they can't.

Please, let this be our line-in-the-sand moment. Let us hold fast and support each other and make this a permanent shift to the left.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:33 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]


Next special election is next Tuesday in Oklahoma!
posted by Chrysostom at 11:35 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]


Dear elderly Dems who run the national party apparatus, please take yesterday as evidence that most of your constituents are not still traumatized from/were not even alive for Carter -> Reagan so you can stop quaking in your boots at the notion of running a campaign from the left
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:05 AM on November 8 [46 favorites]


J am ready to campaign for the socialist utopia. Everyine gets nice shit, the end.
posted by The Whelk at 12:17 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


So am J, buddy. So am J.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:22 AM on November 8 [46 favorites]


Well, this was a wonderful thread in which to re-enter the politics catch - all series! Congratulations, all! Keep at it. We shall overcome.
posted by bardophile at 2:28 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


That'll do America, that'll do. #wipestear
posted by Molesome at 2:31 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


We're seeing a ton of positions here that are electing Democrats for the first time, a ton of places where Democratic candidates are useful and required. The people who impressed but didn't quite make it through the primary can still serve.

So we've confirmed something really important: the wave is real, and it can flip lots and lots of elections. I think this is going to be really motivating for Democrats going into 2018: they know that if they get out there and work for it, they can pick up deep red seats and paint the map. The DSA know that they can win elections on their own if necessary, leaving them open to either taking over the Democratic party, ala the Tea Party, or even going it alone.

But for Republicans, it's clear that Trumpism gets you the base but loses you the election, and you're looking at a 30 point swing against you come the next election. Your donors demand tax cuts after it became clear, after seven years, you couldn't deliver a free market alternative to Obamacare that works*; your voters have baseball bats with nails in them. So you have two options:
  • You try and cut taxes and stoically accept your fate, to wit: being drummed out of office
  • You immediately throw Trump under the bus in the hope that President Pence can help you fend off the base and Democrats won't be quite so furious if Trump is out of office
Either way, ha ha get fucked Republicans

* because the free market alternative to Obamacare is, well, Obamacare. It's clunky and coercive and doesn't really address the cost overrun issues but it's better than the pure HMO system America had previously. It's still not a patch on basically any socialist healthcare system because healthcare is the perfect problem for socialism: you don't need to 'let the market decide' what treatment is best, because doctors do trials and work out what treatment saves more lives; every patient is valued and valuable and their importance is ranked by need; the only actual political question is how it's paid for and administered.
posted by Merus at 3:02 AM on November 8 [25 favorites]


Excellent news all around!

A little local flavor from blue, blue metrowest Boston: Newton, MA just elected its first female mayor, Ruthanne Fuller.

Fun politics trivia fact about Newton: it was the first city to have black men in executive positions at every level of government—?Mayor Setti Warren, Governor Deval Patrick, President Barack Obama.
posted by Sublimity at 3:34 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Bittersweet night in northern N.J. We got Murphy (met his wife the other day- very charming), and a *lot* of local seats went blue (some in towns you would neeeeeveer expect). But the NJ state legislative seats in LD-39 and LD-40 held red; not a single one flipped like we had hoped and worked so hard for. It was closer than it’s ever been but ultimately short. It’s a comfort to know the whole state will support my values; I just wish my personal reps would be a part of it. It’s no fun to lose- I had a HS intern whose has been working since May crying on my shoulder at the watch party. We will rest, recover, and be back!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 3:38 AM on November 8 [43 favorites]


looks like an even split for the VA house, am I reading that right??
posted by indubitable at 3:43 AM on November 8


The super Trumpy small town I grew up in just ousted the Republican town supervisor who had been in office for 35 years (i.e., since before I was born). The guy was awful - my mom ran against him as an independent ~20 years ago and lost by a handful of votes; yesterday the Democrat won by 19 votes. The Democrat! - in an area full of Trump signs and flags and as "GOP base" as you can get; my parents, who live on Fox News and talk radio, voted for a Democrat! For the first time in my life, the tiny town where I grew up might have a functioning government!
posted by melissasaurus at 3:50 AM on November 8 [61 favorites]


looks like an even split for the VA house, am I reading that right??

Unclear, but yeah it looks like either split or 51D-49R.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:07 AM on November 8


No. Uncontested. Races. EVER!
posted by Room 641-A at 4:08 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]




I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by schmod at 4:34 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


@nwarikoo (Freep)
ALERT: Big wins tonight for Dearborn's Arab-American community:
- Top 4 vote-getters for Council were all of Arab (Lebanese) descent: 2 Christian, 2 Shia
- Incumbent mayor seen as open to Arabs defeated challenger
- Council candidates seen as stoking Trump-like tensions defeated
- Also, Dearborn will now have 3 city council members who are women, its highest number ever. Erin Brynes and Leslie Herrick will join incumbent Susan Dabaja, the top vote-getter today among 14 city council candidates.
- Dearborn Mayor O'Reilly defeated Councilman Tom Tafelski, who was supported by fire and some police who were at odds with the first Police Chief of Arab descent, appointed by mayor. Some opposed the chief's moves to hire minorities, felt he favored Muslims
- In Dearborn, MI, small business owner Regan Ford, a conservative who was dubbed by critics as "Little Trump," (a label he rejected) has narrowly lost his bid to be on Dearborn City Council. He placed 8th, just 119 votes shy of 7th place. Top 7 vote-getters will be on council.
posted by chris24 at 4:36 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]


i fell asleep so early last night and i honestly think it was out of sheer relief that things looked like they might be... kind of okay? like the tension that usually keeps me upright went out of my body and it kind of collapsed

now i am awake and they are SO MUCH MORE THAN OKAY I HAVE SO MUCH NEWS TO CATCH UP ON AND FOR ONCE IT IS HAPPY GOD DAMNED NEWS

i haven't felt this good in a literal year
posted by halation at 4:39 AM on November 8 [25 favorites]


@costareports (WaPo)
Democrats made significant gains in Bucks County, the vote-rich swing county of the Philadelphia suburbs. Bucks County Courier: Democrats surged Tuesday night to wins in county row office races
- Democrats will hold county row office positions for the first time in more than 30 years.
- Bucks County Democrats ended Election Night Tuesday with surprise victories in four of five county row offices.
@costareports
Of note: Bucks County, PA is where Ivanka Trump campaigned throughout 2016 and where she recently pitched GOP tax plan. An area the Trump WH cares about, a bellwether of where moderate Rs and independents are leaning.

---

And in Delaware County PA...

Democrats win countywide races in historic upset
In a major upset, Democrats swept races for two Delaware County Council seats on Tuesday and scored all three row offices. It was the first time in history that the party won competitive countywide races. [...]

The last time a Democrat served on county council was in 1980. No Democrat has served on the body since the Home Rule Charter eliminated the requirement for minority party representation.
posted by chris24 at 4:43 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


In a night full of fantastic, this might be my fave.

@daveweigel (WaPo)
My brain keeps returning to the sentence “a transgender heavy metal singer defeated the author of Virginia’s anti-trans bathroom bill."
posted by chris24 at 4:53 AM on November 8 [75 favorites]


More evidence the backlash against Trumpism that people thought would elect Clinton showed up last night. Guess some people had to see Trump in action. White people are slow.

@AdamSerwer (Atlantic)
White male voters in Virginia were quite taken with Gillespie's campaign. Did better than Cuccinelli, slightly worse than Trump. Got hurt among college educated white women. EXIT POLL CHARTS

@ThePlumLineGS (WaPo)
Notable:
Northam's improvement over Clinton was concentrated among white voters (left chart)
...which was driven by college educated whites (right chart): EXIT POLL CHARTS
posted by chris24 at 5:09 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]


@hudson_reporter: HOBOKEN -- @RaviBhalla has announced his victory in the mayoral race. A lifelong New Jerseyan and attorney, he will be the first Sikh mayor in the mile-square city's history.

This is my favorite win, because he was targeted with flyers that literally labeled him a terrorist. Turns out, those flyers may have been illegal; I hope someone pays.
posted by Room 641-A at 5:14 AM on November 8 [24 favorites]


A third trans candidate won last night, making history with Andrea Jenkins (MN) and Danica Roem.

Tyler Titus wins seat to become first transgender person elected in Pennsylvania
Tyler Titus, a candidate for Erie School Board, on Tuesday became the first openly transgender person elected to office in Pennsylvania.

The 33-year-old father of two boys successfully campaigned for one of four open seats on the board. Titus is a licensed professional counselor who works in public and private schools throughout Erie.
posted by chris24 at 5:16 AM on November 8 [36 favorites]


@JuddLegum (ThinkProgress)
Breitbart, 10/25: Gillespie has embraced Trump's message, is surging in the polls

Breitbart, 11/5: Gillespie is speaking our language!

Breitbart, 11/7 (AM): Gillespie win will be huge victory for Trump

Breitbart, 11/7 (PM): New phone, who dis?

SCREENSHOTS
posted by chris24 at 5:21 AM on November 8 [51 favorites]


It seems pretty clear that people are on the page of "the Democrats are what we've got, mostly, so we go to war with the party we have". Now, all everyone has to do is deliver. gear up for 2018 and hope that we get a year of the ineffective kind of Trump fuckery so that everyone is primed to vote but not too much more damage is wrought. (Or maybe he'll be in jail!)

In Minnesota, we have to win the governor's race in 2018. I am going to stump for it in some capacity, despite this being very much not in line with my underlying politics. That's all that stands between us and being another Iowa or Wisconsin, with eviscerated public services and a crashing university system. "Anarchists for the DFL" probably isn't going to be my slogan, though.
posted by Frowner at 5:26 AM on November 8 [38 favorites]


@ChrisMurphyCT: Exit polls show top 2 issues for #Northam voters tonight were health care and guns. Say it again. Health care and GUNS.

@Khanoisseur Retweeted Chris Murphy
NRA blew a million bucks supporting Gillespie, who bragged about the ‘A’ rating they gave him and mocked the ‘F’ rating they gave Northam.

---

We didn't only beat Trumpism last night, we crushed the motherfucking NRA. Things can change if we keep fighting.
posted by chris24 at 5:30 AM on November 8 [84 favorites]


Getting this on the radar early:

APNewsBreak: Anti-gay-marriage clerk to seek re-election
The Kentucky county clerk jailed for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples will run for re-election in 2018, facing voters for the first time since her protest against gay marriage in rural Appalachia provoked a national uproar.

Kim Davis could face a familiar foe: A gay man to whom she refused to issue a marriage license said he’s seriously considering running against her.

“I think I could win,” said David Ermold, an English professor at Pikeville University who was among the many who sued Davis in 2015. “I don’t think that she has learned anything from the experience at all. I really, truly think that she feels like she is right. I really don’t think she cares at all about what civil rights are.”
We can do this! Let's crush her!
posted by Room 641-A at 5:40 AM on November 8 [81 favorites]


ALERT: Big wins tonight for Dearborn's Arab-American community:

And next year, let's take it statewide and elect Abdul El-Sayed governor or die trying. Si se puede.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:40 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


@BarackObama
This is what happens when the people vote. Congrats @RalphNortham and @PhilMurphyNJ . And congratulations to all the victors in state legislative, county and mayors' races. Every office in a democracy counts!
posted by chris24 at 5:42 AM on November 8 [58 favorites]


I have run out of favorites for the first time since the Before Time. I love you all so much.
posted by schadenfrau at 5:43 AM on November 8 [33 favorites]


Karma.

Ohio mayor who left Dem Party to back Trump goes down in humiliating electoral defeat
The mayor in Ohio who left the Democratic Party last year to endorse Donald Trump for president has gone down in defeat.

Tom Coyne, who was elected as mayor of Brook Park in 2013, lost his reelection bid on Tuesday night when he was defeated by independent candidate Michael Gammella.

As the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, Coyne lost by more than five percentage points to Gammella, a former city council president and United Auto Workers representative.

Coyne made headlines in 2016 when he ditched the Democratic Party to back Trump’s candidacy. He has so far shown no remorse for his decision this year, and he even appeared at an October fundraiser in Cleveland alongside Donald Trump Jr.
posted by chris24 at 5:46 AM on November 8 [55 favorites]


Until I heard the early results of the election last night I didn't realize I how they were weighing me down. When I got home last night I distracted myself with normal evening activities and dove head first into making a more-steps-than necessary dinner. I didn't pick up my phone. Around eight I got a text from a friend that said something like "big night for Dems, huh?"

I had an instant physical response - my whole body loosened up. It seems silly, to carry that around but ...

Practically, these elections might not mean a whole lot. But it feels like, if nothing else, nationalism might not win out at the end of the day the United States of America. It means a bit more to my emotional state than my practical aspirations of what we can still accomplish but that's something.
posted by Tevin at 5:53 AM on November 8 [38 favorites]


It's wonderful to wake up to a day after the election seeing so much good news.

Does anyone have any insight as to why the measure in Ohio to cap the price of prescription drugs purchased by the state was so soundly defeated?

Link
posted by maggiemaggie at 5:59 AM on November 8


Current Breitbart front page. They're heavily pushing coverage of Election Night.

Election Night 2016.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:00 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


Election Night 2016.

Fox is also running highlights of a year ago and nothing about last night.
posted by chris24 at 6:02 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


I had an instant physical response - my whole body loosened up. It seems silly, to carry that around but ...

Same.

Turns out we might not live in a fascist country after all.
posted by Artw at 6:09 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Any update on the question of majority control in VA? Still waiting on absentee ballots in those tight races?
posted by lazaruslong at 6:12 AM on November 8


From the wars against disorder,
from the sirens night and day,
from the fires of the homeless,
from the ashes of the gay:
Democracy is coming to the U.S.A.

(edit to say: Leonard Cohen)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:13 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]


You know, we probably shouldn’t celebrate until all of Don Jr’s followers vote today.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:16 AM on November 8 [35 favorites]


@mikeshepherdME Just in from @Governor_LePage: He won't implement Medicaid expansion until it's funded by the Legislature without tax increases or a rainy day fund raid.

That's a heavy lift. #mepolitics


Well, that happy feeling was short lived.

Between the fight over ranked choice voting and now this I'm not feeling very warm toward my state legislators at the moment.
posted by anastasiav at 6:19 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Any update on the question of majority control in VA? Still waiting on absentee ballots in those tight races?

VA is still unknown pending races too close to call. Currently 48D-47R with 50-50 likely, 51-49 possible since in 3 races the Dem is less than a 100 votes away pending recount. In one it's 12 VOTES. Always vote people!

Regarding a tie...

@StevenTDennis
If Virginia's House of Delegates ends up deadlocked 50-50, it wouldn't be the first time. Here's what happened in '97, per NCSL: /files/www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/incaseofatie.aspx
The divided power contract. Used by the Arizona Senate (2000), Minnesota House (1978), North Dakota House (1976), Oregon Senate (2002), and Virginia Senate (1995) and House (1997). These agreements divide the power between the parties. Under this form of power-sharing, one party selects the presiding officer, the other the chair(s) of the most powerful committee(s); lesser committee chairs alternate party affiliation. For example, in Minnesota, the speaker of the House was Republican, but the chairmen of the powerful rules, appropriations and tax committees were Democrats. In the Virginia Senate, a Democratic lieutenant governor presided, the Finance Committee got co-chairs; six committees had Democratic chairs, and four had Republican chairs. The Virginia House of Delegates elected a Democratic speaker and then adopted a power-sharing agreement. Under the agreement, 19 House standing committees had co-chairs and equal party representation. However, if the co-chairs of any standing committee could not agree on how to conduct committee business, a special rule kicks in. It specified that one party’s chair presided the first year of the biennium, and the other party’s, the second.
posted by chris24 at 6:21 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]




Between this and the Maine vote, going to be hard to repeal the individual mandate in the tax bill.

@NickKristof (NYT)
GOP should worry: In Virginia exit polls, top issue for voters was health care--and 78% of those voters who cited health voted Democratic
posted by chris24 at 6:27 AM on November 8 [15 favorites]


I was trying so hard not to worry too much about the VA governor race but I can now admit I was sure the vile, mud-slinging lobbyist would win, proving that disinformation and racism were still more effective than sound policies. I was really sick yesterday but reading this thread was the best medicine. Thank you all for this thread and for your enthusiastic support of our candidates.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:27 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


oh that Alexandra Erin tweet thread is a delight
posted by halation at 6:28 AM on November 8


Next up for me and other Alabamians: continuing to support Doug Jones and stopping twice-fired-judge Roy Moore next month. Feel free to join in!
posted by sgranade at 6:30 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


In Somerville, MA all seven Our Revolution candidates won, including two DSA members! As a recent transplant from Florida, I am so psyched to live under a leftist local government FOR ONCE.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 6:31 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


To echo others' thoughts, it's nice to have a little faith in America again. The silent majority isn't the racist fascists, but the black and brown, Muslim and Sikh, trans and queer, and women of all stripes who voted and ran and made history last night, joined by whites who respect and welcome them rather than fear and hate them.
posted by chris24 at 6:33 AM on November 8 [24 favorites]


Did anyone yet post that Andrea Jenkins, a Black trans woman with a long, long history in politics in MPLS, won a seat on the city council? I've heard her speak a couple of times at events. This is extra exciting to me because she has such a substantial history in local politics - not only do I appreciate that she will be on the city council as an advocate for women, queer and trans people and people of color, but I feel 100% confident that she brings a ton of political chops with her.
posted by Frowner at 6:35 AM on November 8 [34 favorites]


showbiz_liz: "Dear elderly Dems who run the national party apparatus, please take yesterday as evidence that most of your constituents are not still traumatized from/were not even alive for Carter -> Reagan so you can stop quaking in your boots at the notion of running a campaign from the left"

Whatever Northam's campaign was, it sure as heck wasn't a campaign from the left.
posted by schmod at 6:36 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]


Considering that there are several state elections in Virginia that are being decided by less than 100 votes, Trump, Jr.'s tweet may have actually thrown the state house to the Democrats.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:36 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Considering that there are several state elections in Virginia that are being decided by less than 100 votes, Trump, Jr.'s tweet may have actually thrown the state house to the Democrats.

chefskiss.gif
posted by chris24 at 6:38 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


Y'know that Scream thing in Boston at 6 pm tonight? I was planning on standing on my front stoop and joining in, an inchoate scream of rage into the night. I'm still planning to do it but now it's more like equal parts delight and a warning, We're coming for you.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:38 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]




Regarding a tie..
The 98 general assembly was a bit different. It was 50 D, 49 R, 1 I. The independent only decided to join with the Rs after the speaker was elected. The Dems also had control of the previous session and the Senate, which gave them some parliamentary advantages. I'm not so sure it will work out so smoothly this time.
posted by Lame_username at 6:44 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Does anyone have any insight as to why the measure in Ohio to cap the price of prescription drugs purchased by the state was so soundly defeated?

As near as I can tell, the pro- side was outmessaged by a pharmaceutical industry-funded ad campaign that more or less amounted to a publicly broadcast ultimatum: Pass this law and Big Pharma will drown your state in legal bills from now until doomsday. It apparently worked.
posted by Strange Interlude at 6:44 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


So many great stories from last night.

Woman who ran after Atlantic County Freeholder mocked the Women's March knocks him off the board
Ashley Bennett, 32, a psychiatric emergency screener from Egg Harbor Township who showed up at an Atlantic County Freeholder’s meeting to protest comments made by Freeholder John Carman mocking the Women’s March, and then decided to run for his seat, knocked Carman off the board Tuesday.

Carman’s sharing of a facebook meme – “Will the women’s march end in time for them to cook dinner?” – brought scores of women to protest at the obscure county board, one bearing a box of mac and cheese and instructions for Carman to cook his own dinner. And it brought him national attention, including most recently being ridiculed on an episode of the podcast Lovett or Leave It featuring U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand reading sexist quotes.

Carman said he was just joking around, but it was Bennett, a Democratic challenger in a Republican stronghold district, who had the last laugh, defeating him Tuesday by nearly 1,000 votes out of about 14,000 cast for the seat on the New Jersey legislative body known as the Atlantic County Board of Chosen Freeholders.

Bennett’s decision to run was embraced by progressive national groups like “Run for Something” which has been recruiting millennials to run for down ballot offices. She was the toast of twitter early Wednesday.
posted by chris24 at 6:51 AM on November 8 [71 favorites]


On top of the hope and joy I feel at yesterday's results are two happy thoughts: 1), that this election occurred on an off-off-year, where Democratic turnout is traditionally at its lowest. If turnout for Ds improves in 2018 -- and after yet another year of Trump's malignancy and failure, I don't see how it wouldn't -- then a Democratic wave becomes more possible. And if the Democrats capture even one house of Congress, the Trump agenda is sunk, not to mention we will see real investigations and likely further indictments. And b), every Republican office holder is now wondering whether fealty to Trump will doom their re-election, and definitely noticing that Trump's support is not to be counted on to make the nut.

Well done, all.
posted by Gelatin at 6:54 AM on November 8 [18 favorites]


Pictorial embodiment of how I feel reading election results this morning: Danica Roem gloriously mid-headbang
posted by marshmallow peep at 6:55 AM on November 8 [38 favorites]


Today would be an excellent day to call up Republican office holders to gloat let them know that we're just getting started. No one who supported Donald Trump from a public office should ever be allowed to forget just how badly they fucked up. They all need to go. Problem for them, though, is that they can't really distance themselves from him at this point, without losing in the primaries or risking direct attacks from the Popular Vote Loser himself.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 6:56 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]



Pictorial embodiment of how I feel reading election results this morning: Danica Roem gloriously mid-headbang


WITH FUCKING GREAT WINGED EYELINER OMG
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:57 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]


melissasaurus: "Independent Ben Walsh wins Syracuse mayoral race (over both Dem and GOP)"

Yeah, I was surprised to see that. Do you have any background on what drove the race?
posted by Chrysostom at 6:58 AM on November 8


Two things to share:

1. Have you all heard about the Asheville Gerrymander 5k? I think it is brilliant. Sorry if I missed it in one of our threads. I want more of this.

2. For just a few moments last night I felt a "." for Drumpf and the Republican party. I know we have a long way to go and that this is just the start. But damn, it felt good. And the person I voted for in my local city council also won. #winningbigly?
posted by anya32 at 6:58 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


chris24: YESSS I love reading about Bennett! She hated how belittling his remarks were. She was an EMT. She is black and defeated her opponent, who wore a Confederate symbol on his vest. I hope this is the start of a great public servant's career in public office.
posted by brainwane at 7:00 AM on November 8 [37 favorites]


brought scores of women to protest at the obscure county board

Weird framing by the Philly paper. The Board of Chosen Freeholders may be an antiquated name but it's just the county legislature in New Jersey.
posted by octothorpe at 7:01 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Problem for them, though, is that they can't really distance themselves from him at this point, without losing in the primaries or risking direct attacks from the Popular Vote Loser himself.

And I'm going to enjoy every minute of their suffering this dilemma. I predict there will be chaos as many Republicans try to have it both ways, while some double down on their Trump support -- with all the gaffe potential that implies -- and others take the Flakey route of loudly denouncing Trump's actions while hoping no one notices how often they vote with him (Ron Howard narrator voice: We notice). And the stories may even provide enough fodder for the lazy media to set aside its tired "Dems in disarray" narrative to talk about the disorder in the Republican Party.
posted by Gelatin at 7:01 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


But "Dems in disarray" is one of Weigel's favorite jokes!

Dave's shtick is repeating the same joke a lot.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:08 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]




She is black and defeated her opponent, who wore a Confederate symbol on his vest.

So a Nazi wearing a swastika equivalent just got slapped down? So much for the tolerant left!
posted by Artw at 7:12 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


Ashley Bennett, 32, a psychiatric emergency screener from Egg Harbor Township who showed up at an Atlantic County Freeholder’s meeting to protest comments made by Freeholder John Carman mocking the Women’s March, and then decided to run for his seat, knocked Carman off the board Tuesday.

Uuuuhhh I’m like already barely functional from mostly freude, and a massive dollop of schaden, can we just slow down while I catch my breath and

Pictorial embodiment of how I feel reading election results this morning: Danica Roem gloriously mid-headbang

*faints*
posted by schadenfrau at 7:13 AM on November 8 [39 favorites]


*catches breath*

Problem for them, though, is that they can't really distance themselves from him at this point, without losing in the primaries or risking direct attacks from the Popular Vote Loser himself.

And I'm going to enjoy every minute of their suffering this dilemma.


*dies*
posted by schadenfrau at 7:15 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


This was a pleasing mayoral win in a town just a few miles from me.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:17 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


My boss is my work partner in Democratic wonkery and we both came in this morning like heeyyyyyyyy!!!! :D :D :D

Man, this is a weird feeling.

(Stupid stuff with our dumb PA ballot initiative. I have no idea what it means that it got passed, though. I'll look into it tomorrow. Today, we gloat.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:19 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Incidentally, Manka Dhingra is a Sikh, and her opponent was previously the communications director for the Bitcoin Foundation, in case that causes you to have further opinions.
posted by brainwane at 7:20 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


PA ballot - probably bad for education. We badly need to flip at least one house of the legislature.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


PA ballot question: my understanding is that the governor can veto it. The main reason it was on the ballot was to drive tea partiers to the polls. Apparently it got a fair amount of attention amongst the rightwing in PA.
posted by mcduff at 7:22 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Current Breitbart front page. They're heavily pushing coverage of Election Night.

Election Night 2016.


Fox is also running highlights of a year ago and nothing about last night.



GOOD. Let them continue burying their fool heads in the sand. All the way through 2018 and beyond.

Here in Maryland, I've been refreshing this Facebook thread from a former GOP County Executive for the delicious schadenfreude. Quite a lot of hand-wringing in there (and a few gloaters from the left). My favorite is this exchange between two Republican insiders:
the problem is if those candidates embrace Trump they will not have any opportunity to win over cross over Independents and Democrats which are necessary to win in Maryland. Trump is just not popular.

I understand what you are saying but I also hear a LOT of Republicans saying they won't vote for Hogan because of his non-support of Trump.
And as if to prove the latter's point about Larry Hogan, further up that thread:
Not a fan of his since he couldn't keep his opinion to himself during the presidential election. If he couldn't support the nominee then keep quiet.
iiiiiit's a beautiful day in this neighborhood...
posted by duffell at 7:22 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


The one thing I think we can all agree on, is that this is clearly good news for John McCain.
posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:24 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


We heard nothing about it here in Pittsburgh, except a couple random Facebook posts from citizens saying, basically, "Vote no on this confusingly-worded bullshit Tea Party bait, it will defund public schools." But there was no campaign that I saw surrounding it hereabouts, either Yes or No.

I really hope we can solve this state's extreme gerrymandering in time. Our legislature is a garbage fire.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:25 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


Love a Twitter comment responding to Trump and his Gillespie nonsense:

YOU'RE A LOSER. AN ANVIL. RESIGN!
posted by agregoli at 7:25 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Whatever Northam's campaign was, it sure as heck wasn't a campaign from the left.

I was talking about the dozens of other races people have been discussing in this thread where lefty candidates ran and won.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:26 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]




I mean, in a vacuum, property taxes are a terribly inequitable way to fund education, screwing poor districts. I'd love to see them replaced with state-wide graduated income taxes. But that's not what we're talking about here.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:28 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


11/5/17 - As Gillespie adopts Trumpian tactics in Virginia, Bannon credits Corey Stewart (Paul Schwartz man, WaPo)
“Corey Stewart is the reason Gillespie is going to win,” Stephen K. Bannon, the former White House chief strategist and Trump’s campaign czar, said in an interview. “It was the Trump-Stewart talking points that got Gillespie close and even maybe to victory. It was embracing Trump’s agenda as personified by Corey’s platform. This was not a competitive race four weeks ago. You could have stuck a fork in Gillespie.
11/7/17 - Ed Gillespie Lost an Election. Then He Was Pulverized by Trump and His Allies
Laura Ingraham, the Trump-adoring cable news host, accused Gillespie of playing “footsie with conservative populism” without fully embracing it. Breitbart, called him a “Republican swamp thing.” A staffer for Corey Stewart, the conservative candidate who barely lost to Gillespie in the GOP primary, told Fox News that, "Gillespie didn't speak to populist issues early enough in the campaign.”

In the coup-de-grace, Trump himself said Gillespie “worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for” just hours after he recorded an election-day robocall for the candidate and tweeted his support for his campaign
11/8/17 - Bannon offered to hold rally for Gillespie but campaign declined (Rebecca Savransky' The Hill)
Republican Ed Gillespie's campaign reportedly declined an offer by former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon to hold a campaign rally ahead of the Virginia governor's election.

Bannon's camp was "fuming" about the decision, according to a report in the Washington Examiner.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:32 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


So I went to sleep with a huge grin on my face, and I woke up this morning with my smile muscles feeling strained. But I have a question:

These garments that I specifically collected so that I could rend them. What do I do with them now?

(Yeah, I'm not forgetting our garbage fire in DC, and I'm not going to forget or forgive on Puerto Rico. But for once, it feels nice not to have to participate in the regularly scheduled circular firing squad.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:36 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Fave limit hit. Well done people. Well done.
posted by chris24 at 7:37 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


I've just remembered that my mother always referred to the Board of Chosen Freeholders as the Board of Frozen Cheeseholders but as a community activist in very Republican Morris County she ended up in fights with them fairly often.
posted by octothorpe at 7:37 AM on November 8 [35 favorites]


in Maine, Gov. LePage is vowing to sabotage the wishes of voters. He's an utter asshole.
posted by theora55 at 7:37 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


> These garments that I specifically collected so that I could rend them. What do I do with them now?

There will be sorrow to come, for sure. Don't get rid of those garments just yet.
posted by Tevin at 7:40 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Perfect.

@BoDietl:
Good morning @frankmorano I Lost last night but I’m still a multimillionaire your still a Fat Looser in the looser Reform party
posted by chris24 at 7:45 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


@ForecasterEnten:
Lots of talk about Northam merely turning up the heat in blue areas... But the average margin shift towards him in Clinton won counties/independent cities was only half that of Trump won counties/independent cities.
posted by chris24 at 7:49 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


It's making me really happy to see that many of the winners last night are young people in their 20s and 30s. I'm really hoping we can hold it together long enough to get millenials in the highest offices so that we can unfuck the world.
posted by joedan at 7:49 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]


Returns in the city of Burien, 10 miles south of my home city of Seattle, are not looking good. The "I'm a racist piece of shit and I vote!" slate is winning 2 of 4 races, while the "let's try and be decent human beings" slate has the other 2 (but is only ahead by four votes in one of those races). Notably, the 2 Latino candidates in the latter slate are the ones that are losing. Poorly-written article here.
posted by duffell at 7:50 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Frank Luntz;'s research firm just gave me an invitation to be part of a focus group.

I. Am. So. Tempted.

Do I go? Do I tell them "go back to being a technocratic party of right-of-center bean counters like the Christian Democrats in Europe"?

Do I tell them "embrace the crazy! Promise to do something about chemtrails!"?

Do I just not go? (I've a 2 month old in the house.)

I mean, it's going to be a focus group on how to change the way the GOP presents itself, and I want to be the trouble maker who tells them "first change what the GOP IS. Then worry about how it presents itself."
posted by ocschwar at 7:52 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


chris24: Carman said he was just joking around

Here's the thing about any racist, sexist, homophobic, or even snarky "jokes" -- by the simple fact that you said it means at some level you believed your comment as true.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:52 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


This story about Wilmot Collins, the new mayor of Helena, Montana, is something else:
When Wilmot Collins and his wife Maddie arrived in Ghana after escaping the Liberian civil war in September 1990, he weighed just 90 pounds. Maddie was about 87 pounds. They were starving, dehydrated and sick. Both had to be rushed to the hospital.

Four years later, they arrived in Helena, Montana, where they were resettled as refugees. Now Wilmot Collins, 52, works for the Department of Health and Human Services. Maddie Collins is a registered nurse. They own their own home. Their 24-year-old daughter is in the Navy while their 20-year-old son, formerly a high school football star, is a sophomore at the University of Montana.

Collins wants people to hear his story because he wants them to know that new refugees have something to offer.
posted by galaxy rise at 7:54 AM on November 8 [99 favorites]


PA ballot question: my understanding is that the governor can veto it.

I don't think that's true (but if you've got a cite for that, I'd love to read it); but the ballot question was merely to amend the PA Constitution to allow property taxes to be lowered. It did not itself lower those taxes. Any State-level attempts to lower property taxes, now that they have been allowed to do so, are subject to a veto by Governor Wolf. In a practical sense, the ballot question did nothing by itself, and everything it could cause to happen would be subject to a veto.

That said: it was a terrible ballot question because there's not a clear understanding on what the state should do, now that this has passed. In theory, it could be used to shift the tax burden for school funding away from property taxes and onto, say, income or business taxes. In practice, the Republican legislators who were pushing for this are probably going to try to just cut taxes and also cut school funding. It remains to be seen what actually comes out of this.
posted by cjelli at 7:54 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Do I go?

Heck, yes. Then you can tip off Democrats on what messaging the Republicans have planned.
posted by Gelatin at 7:54 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


ocschwar, I would totally go.

It's not like you'll know anyone there that you have to see again, so show up, tell them that their positions aren't popular with the plurality, and take the fifty bucks or whatever on your way out the door.

(Don't eat anything, tho.)
posted by wenestvedt at 7:55 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


"Independent Ben Walsh wins Syracuse mayoral race (over both Dem and GOP)"

Yeah, I was surprised to see that. Do you have any background on what drove the race?


At first glance, it seems shocking that he got 54% of the vote when there were 4 people on the ticket, including people running on the Dem and GOP tickets. But, Walsh had name recognition because his dad was a longtime congressman in the area. The GOP nominee (Laura Lavine) received basically no votes (2.5%) - Walsh would have run on the Republican ticket but refused to register with the party (but his commitment to Republicanism was not really in doubt, given his family history in the area). Republicans don't typically fare well in the Syracuse mayoral election (historically, it's gone Dem by 60-40ish margins). However, it should be noted that the Democrat, Juanita Perez Williams, was also combating racism and sexism, and was cast as "hard to work worth" and told she needed to "tone it down" even by other area Democrats. I imagine that sexism was also at play in people choosing between the Republican-in-all-but-name White Man and a Republican who happened to be a woman. I think Williams just couldn't overcome the attacks against her, and the tone of the race was similar to 2016, so people just wanted an "outsider" (the guy is from a political family but successfully propagandized himself as new and exciting).

So, the headline from the race is more shocking than the routine reality - a white dude with powerful local ties won the race in part due to widespread sexist and racist attacks on his Democratic opponent and conservative female challenger (not necessarily by him - I don't know enough about the day-to-day campaign - but he definitely benefited from it).
posted by melissasaurus at 7:55 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


LePage seems like the kind of guy that you would get rid of Mad Max style, by tying him to a donkey backwards and chasing it out of town.

Of course, as a Texan I have zero ability to make fun of other state's legislatures. A good two thirds of our guys deserve the same treatment.
posted by emjaybee at 7:56 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


I mean, it's going to be a focus group on how to change the way the GOP presents itself, and I want to be the trouble maker who tells them "first change what the GOP IS. Then worry about how it presents itself."

The way I'd look at this is: they are attempting to learn something to become more successful. I don't want them to become more successful, so I don't want them to learn anything from me. Even if you're straight-up "I don't like what the GOP's doing and here's why and here's how they should be different," they'll just use it to polish the party's image and craft messaging to appeal to people like you. It's ultimately going to aid continued domination of lousy ideas. I'd opt out.
posted by Miko at 7:56 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


A couple of weeks ago, I interviewed a local activist for a profile I'm writing for work, and he had a pretty amazing piece of advice that had never occurred to me. I haven't actually done this, but I think I will:

“Know who your local representatives are, know who your community board chair is—put their numbers in your phone! Then, when you see a problem that needs to be fixed, you can let them know about it right away.”
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:00 AM on November 8 [20 favorites]


I haven't woken up as cheerful as I have today in yoinks. Hooray for a Dem wave! Hooray for trans women Danica Roem and Andrea Jenkins winning their seats! Hooray for lots of women and POC candidates in general! May this help usher in a wave of women, LGBT, POC, Muslim, openly atheist, you name it, candidates. Hooray for socialism!

May this lay the groundwork for more leftie candidates and winners. Progressive ideas win. Let's see more true progressives and *gasp* socialists, and fewer "electable" Third Way milquetoasts. We are not a center-right nation, and the Third Way, we-are-a-center-right-nation, chasing after the mythical "swing voter" needs to go away and be replaced by a true Democratic/socialist progressivism.

When we vote, we are powerful! Democrats need to vote like this every single damn time there is an election, from dog-catcher on up. We have gotten soft and complacent in the Obama years. I hope this is an end to that.

Adding my heartfelt thanks to Chrysostom for keeping us updated on all the elections taking place across the country. I wouldn't have known about many of these, or kicked in money, if it wasn't for you. You are MeFi's own 50-state strategist!

Finally, I would love to be a fly on the wall on Air Force One when Trump returns from Asia. Between Hope Hicks' appointment with Bob Mueller, and all the losing, I doubt the Orange Albatross is having a fun couple of days. Ha ha ha. LOOOOOOSER.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:01 AM on November 8 [21 favorites]


Chrysostom: Progressive-backed candidates win every race in Las Cruces

Thanks for the New Mexico coverage! I thought there were votes in Albuquerque, there are two run-off elections next week, following the two non-majority results, one for mayor and another for city council (who have staggered elections). The run-off will take place next week, Nov. 14, and you can vote early through Nov. 10.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:03 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Man alive, I forgot to say this last night - whatever you did this year, thank you. Voting, donating, volunteering, they all matter. Thank you for however you were able to contribute!
posted by Chrysostom at 8:03 AM on November 8 [28 favorites]


Yes, that ABQ mayoral looks positive for a win.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:04 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Problem for them, though, is that they can't really distance themselves from him at this point, without losing in the primaries or risking direct attacks from the Popular Vote Loser himself.

Another thought about this topic -- Trump is no doubt going to try to spin this rebuke as "Trump can't fail, he can only be failed," but let's face it, the Democratic candidates already got direct attacks from the Popular Vote Loser himself.

They won anyway.

Democratic messaging going forward has to be "Trump is a loser. Trump always was a loser. Even with the Russians cheating for him he lost the popular vote, and he's less popular now. We aren't afraid of him.

Will that ever stick in his craw.
posted by Gelatin at 8:07 AM on November 8 [37 favorites]


Every time someone posts about a new record that's been broken, with a new first in their newly-elected office, I start crying happy tears. We are a diverse nation, and it's about damn time our elected offices started looking like it. It's nice to feel a tiny bit hopeful again after last year.
posted by PearlRose at 8:09 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


(Don't eat anything, tho.)

Aww, man..

Back when I aspired to be a policy wonk, I learned the GOP always has the better caterers.

Bernie Sanders never bribes you with sushi to get your opinions.
posted by ocschwar at 8:10 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Dare say...I'm a little less afraid of what the future portends after last night. The resignation is fading slightly. What is this, could it be renewed optimism?
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:12 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]



ocschwar, I would totally go.

It's not like you'll know anyone there that you have to see again, so show up, tell them that their positions aren't popular with the plurality, and take the fifty bucks or whatever on your way out the door.


You have a chance to speak sanity among some people who probably don't hear a lot of it. You have a chance to be in their faces and say, "Fuck no, this is not okay, what is wrong with you?" to people who don't get that from their friends and family who don't want to make waves.

Go. You should absolutely go. Go, go, go.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:12 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]




Just make sure they don’t ask you to sign a release (unless you want to be on the news or wherever.)
posted by Room 641-A at 8:20 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Looking at the Fox News and Breitbart sites is surreal. You wouldn't even think there was an election yesterday. The only links on the front page to news about the election on either site is about Ed Gillespie. In the domestic news section, Fox's headlines don't mention the election until you're about 10 headlines deep: "New Jersey governor race: Who are Phil Murphy and Kim Guadagno?" (Psssst. Your viewers probably could have used that information yesterday.)

Then, the next headline comes only when we scroll all the way down to the "Southeast" section, where they have a small link to a story about Danica Roem's win.

How do they expect to keep viewers / readers if they aren't going to cover what happened? Is this the new Republican party? When something happens that they don't like, they'll simply ignore reality and stick their heads in the sand?

I wonder if they're getting tired of all the winning yet.
posted by zarq at 8:25 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


I wonder if they're getting tired of all the winning yet.

I can't help but think of my favorite cinematic "come at me, bro" moment.
posted by duffell at 8:29 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Couple of Massachusetts results of note: Framingham elected its first mayor last night (until this year, it was your basic Massachusetts town-meeting town) - Yvonne Spicer - a black woman who beat a former selectman (and holdover from the old Tony Colonna days, for you Framinghamites). Newton elected its first woman mayor, Ruthanne Fuller (who replaces the city's first black mayor, who's running for governor). She and her opponent, both city councilors, had similar views on most issues; he may have done himself in with an ad that made it seem like he thought working in an office was more important than being a stay-at-home mom.

Also, Althea Garrison, the first trans person ever elected to a state legislature (in 1992, although she was outed and ruined politically by the Herald) came in fifth in the Boston at-large city council race, which means she would automatically become a councilor if one of the incumbents quits. But she's basically conservative - pro-gun and anti-abortion, and she opposed same-sex marriage.
posted by adamg at 8:32 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


How do they expect to keep viewers / readers if they aren't going to cover what happened?

Republican resentment stems from the fact that they feel like losers. They were even expecting Trump to lose, and supporting him anyway was an act of protest. The problem is, they really aren't a majority of the country, and it turns out the majority doesn't like the fact that they won't play nice. Reality, as always, has a liberal bias.

I wonder if the right wing information bubble is so impenetrable that they can dismiss even elections as "fake news."
posted by Gelatin at 8:35 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


> Is this the new Republican party? When something happens that they don't like, they'll simply ignore reality and stick their heads in the sand?

Yes, but I wouldn't say that's the "new" Republican party.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:35 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]




TINTON FALLS, N.J. (AP) — A 93-year-old World War II veteran upset an incumbent New Jersey mayor who was seeking a second term.

Non-partisan election, but corruption was the issue, so still nice to sea.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:37 AM on November 8 [21 favorites]


Seen on Twitter: "Gillespie changing his birthday on twitter so there'd be balloons when you went to his account and then losing the election is honestly the biggest self own I've ever seen in my entire life."
posted by orange swan at 8:39 AM on November 8 [79 favorites]


Bernie Sanders never bribes you with sushi to get your opinions.

“Millionaires and Gill-ionaires!”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:40 AM on November 8


I'm proud to be from Virginia today. :D
posted by thedarksideofprocyon at 8:47 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


(Don't eat anything, tho.)
Aww, man..
Back when I aspired to be a policy wonk, I learned the GOP always has the better caterers.


Hey now, remember what happened to Persephone. Don't risk it.

Here in the PNW, my preferred mayoral candidate lost in Seattle, but at least it looks like the alleged rapist sheriff may be defeated by Mitzi Johanknecht. Still counting it appears, but looking good so far. A little bummed it wasn't a blowout, but I'll take it anyway.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:47 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Additionally, Salem MA voted to uphold their status as a sanctuary city.

Of course, the dickwads are out in force all over Salem Facebook groups posting that the ICE Raids Begin Tomorrow. They're not from around here, as Salemites know that government thugs sent to search the town don't tend to make out very well.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 8:53 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


One of the (many) ironic things about Trump is that he demands total loyalty from everybody around him, but he doesn't show any real loyalty to anyone. He never does anything wrong - it's always someone else's fault.
posted by thedarksideofprocyon at 8:57 AM on November 8 [18 favorites]


Except Putin.
posted by Artw at 9:00 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]





TINTON FALLS, N.J. (AP) — A 93-year-old World War II [Navy] veteran upset an incumbent New Jersey mayor who was seeking a second term.

Non-partisan election, but corruption was the issue, so still nice to sea.

I see what you did there.
posted by zakur at 9:01 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


A couple more things on the Syracuse mayoral election to add to what melissasaurus has already said. Juanita Perez-Williams took the Democratic Party nomination by beating the party-endorsed candidate Joe Nicoletti in the primary. (Nicoletti had run before and lost giving us our last Republican mayor.) Perez-Williams never got the full-throated endorsement of the party or the departing mayor. Some of the local name Democrats supported Walsh who had worked in the Democratic mayor's administration.

One bright spot, even the perennial Green Party candidate did better than the Republican.
posted by maurice at 9:04 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


National Treasure Alexandra Petri, WaPo: Gillespie did not embrace Trump enough
He forgot that there is more to Trump than just racism: There is also corruption and incompetence.

He did the first part just fine. His MS-13 commercials were exactly the sort of nightmarish dog-horn that is Trump’s specialty. But he forgot: That is not all that “Trumpism” is. Otherwise we would not need a special new -ism for it and could just say “racism.”

No, Gillespie barely even tried. Where was the paranoia? Where were the unhinged rants about wiretapping? Where were the attacks on the legitimacy of the free press? There was, naturally, some gleeful disregard for fact, and those lines about sanctuary cities were Trump-ish, but there could have been much more. Just to show he was trying. Where were the conspiracy theories? Where was Alex Jones?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:08 AM on November 8 [32 favorites]


I'm not much of a GIF person, but these two of Mark Warner and Terry McAuliffe are...something.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:13 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Over here in my neck of the woods - Boise City Council has a majority of women for the first time since 1999!
posted by cobain_angel at 9:14 AM on November 8 [21 favorites]


I'm not much of a GIF person, but these two of Mark Warner and Terry McAuliffe are...something.

Ha! That McAuliffe gif. "I should stop? ok"
posted by duffell at 9:16 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


TINTON FALLS, N.J. (AP) — A 93-year-old World War II [Navy] veteran upset an incumbent New Jersey mayor who was seeking a second term.

Literally a wave election.
posted by notyou at 9:16 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


OMG dog-horn. That is an hysterical portmanteau, or at least I'm assuming it is. Dogwhistle and foghorn in one word is how I read it. Man that's brilliant and so perfectly sums up how it feels that their racist dog-whistling is being screamed at the top of their lungs.

It's like they don't even understand how a dogwhistle is supposed to work, all subtlety is lost on these racist bastards. Maybe it's a sign that when you give up the ability to innocently whistle a "what, me racist?" tune, people notice. Maybe there's a bit of hope yet.

Dog-horn. Snort, giggle..
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 9:18 AM on November 8 [26 favorites]


Daniel Lin:
[Virginia, yesterday]
-Purple state

[Virginia, today]
-State flag is an NPR tote bag
-Men are required to make sandwiches for women
-Confederate statues must show Harriet Tubman punching Robert E. Lee
posted by gwint at 9:21 AM on November 8 [83 favorites]


> Confederate statues must show Harriet Tubman punching Robert E. Lee

Like the Fearless Girl staring down the Wall Street Bull, this might be a circumvention of original artistic intent that I could get on board with. (Image for context)
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:23 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


The way I'd look at this is: they are attempting to learn something to become more successful. I don't want them to become more successful, so I don't want them to learn anything from me.

Option 1: Stay home; plenty of good reasons to withhold even hypothetical support.

Option 2: Go, and be the voice of sanity and advocate of honest negotiation for the people's needs.

Option 3: Go, with the intent to scramble things - tell them to double down on Christianity and bible quotes; tell them to push a "women in kitchen where they belong" message; tell them to advocate for LGBT conversion camps. Push them as far into wacko right as they'll go, because our real danger is not from the wackos anymore - we're aware how toxic they are, and we're working to vote them out.

The worst risks are from "moderate republicans" who will have a message of "fiscal responsibility and family values," yet dodge every question about what those mean in practice, especially for people who aren't from the cis white het middle+ class background that they like to believe is "everybody."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:36 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Harriet Tubman punching Robert E. Lee

Artists of MeFi, I have a commission for you!
posted by phliar at 9:40 AM on November 8 [20 favorites]


> Fox News has completely given up: "Tucker has Glenn Greenwald on now to talk Donna Brazile."

Glenn, as one might expect, is taking last night's victories as a sign that we can put the divisive 2016 primaries behind us to come together to fight against our common-- naaah, j/k, of course he's using it as an excuse to bash Democrats:

@ggreenwald: This is amazing reporting about Lee Carter's shocking win last night, @DemSocialists and the Democrats. Please read this:
@alexnpress: lmao the @DemSocialists member Lee Carter, who just won a seat in the Virginia legislature, had precisely zero help from the Dems
Except...

@DanaHoule: About $100,000 of the $240,000 he reported came from Dem committees & SuperPAC’s.* Will @jacobinmag asst editor admit she was wrong?

Greenwald responds: If someone wants to present facts to the @RTDNEWS proving they got the reporting wrong & should retract it, they should.

Facts are boring! I shall not trifle with the petty concerns of whether the reports that I cite have any basis in reality!
posted by tonycpsu at 9:51 AM on November 8 [33 favorites]


Does anyone have any insight as to why the measure in Ohio to cap the price of prescription drugs purchased by the state was so soundly defeated?

For all that the "Big Pharma got out the Big Guns" analysis has a point, Issue 2 was not without some serious problems and some incoherent or highly questionable messages from the "pro" side.

It wasn't just a general cap on drug prices for everyone - the proposal was that drugs bought & distributed by state programs would pay no more than the Veterans' Administration pays.

Problems: 1) therefore, these caps would only apply to people on Medicaid, not to those covered by Medicare, and definitely not to anyone covered by private insurance. Of course it's good for the lowest income Ohioans to get a break, but not even including Medicare recipients in the cap made many people think a better bill is possible. (Yes, Big Pharma did make a bunch of noise about how they would have to raise prices for everyone else if Issue 2 passed.)

2) Figuring out what the VA pays for drugs is not necessarily a simple matter - something about how their prices are not always public info, and sometimes they get get discounts above and beyond their published prices? Nobody, pro or con, was ever able to explain how this would work in practice.

3) Which is just one example of how the language and concepts of the bill were vague and ill-defined, leaving plenty of loopholes for shenanigans and/or a bunch of lawsuits just to more clearly address how the law would actually work.

4) Nobody knew how much (or even if) money would be saved. The Pro side claimed something like 500 million, but every impartial org that looked at the financial effect of the bill basically said, "Well, not that much, but we really have no idea, the whole thing is too vague."

5) Possibly the thing that tipped the most people to "no", a clause that if the law was ever challenged in court, the organization & individuals that got the bill on the ballot in the first place (by creating & circulating a petition) would be the ones to defend the law in court, and all of their legal fees and court costs would be paid by the state (i.e. taxpayers), regardless of whether they ultimately won or lost. I think for a lot of folks, even if they were ok with considering the bill as an imperfect start to fixing our drug price problems, found that clause entirely too weird, maybe even fishy.

TL:DR - the bill was not as straightforward as some of the stories about it are suggesting, so an arguably problem law was pretty easily defeated by a massive campaign against it.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:51 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Metafilter: I'll look into it tomorrow. Today, we gloat.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:55 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Sorry, Comcast: Voters say “yes” to city-run broadband in Fort Collins, Colorado -- Voters in Fort Collins, Colorado, yesterday approved a ballot question that authorizes the city to build a broadband network, rejecting a cable and telecom industry campaign against the initiative.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:57 AM on November 8 [52 favorites]


#5 is the primary reason above that I voted against Issue 2 in Ohio. But taxpayers would not only be on the hook for the defense of any lawsuits, we'd also have to pay the state's portion, too! So we'd get double billed on any lawsuits arising from the law.

I'm still not sure I voted the "right" way on this one. It was a seriously flawed issue and then to put taxpayers on the hook for lawsuits felt really skeevey.
posted by cooker girl at 9:59 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Issue 2 strikes me as analogous to the CA single payer thing that got scrapped. The goal is worthy, I think we should be pushing for it, this particular iteration didn't seem well-thought out.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]




"I wonder if the right wing information bubble is so impenetrable that they can dismiss even elections as "fake news.""

From what I'm seeing, their sour grapes are more about how

-Apparently Virginia was always blue so this isn't a big deal
-Who cares about state elections, Trump is president

So a mix of fake news and ideological gymnastics, since it's weird that the party of state rights all of a sudden thinks federal is everything.
posted by Tarumba at 10:07 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]


It would be nice if ballot initiatives had a box for "I like what you're trying to do but this particular proposal appears unworkable so I must reluctantly vote no." As we're seeing in Congress, the whole committee-hearings-and-amendments process actually does serve a purpose in producing functional legislation!
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:08 AM on November 8 [24 favorites]


I could use that for California propositions. They are often a mess.
posted by tavella at 10:10 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


I have a couple select people from Weird Left Twitter on my feed because they're fun but the sneering smugness is really chapping my hide this morning because of course it's all being directed not at Republicans who deserve every.... what's a unit of smugness? Anyway, all of the smugness units. But instead the sneering is heading straight at Hillary-voters and Democrats. GUYS! Those very same people voted for your d00dz! Just yesterday! It happened! You did it, you worked hard to make a case to the electorate from the center on leftwards to give these candidates a chance! This is a moment that we can propel a movement forward together! As a majority! But, like, don't let that get in the way of your in-jokey superiority about ~~pantsuits or anything.
posted by soren_lorensen at 10:11 AM on November 8 [40 favorites]


Both of Pittsburgh DSA's endorsed candidates won.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:13 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


As someone who is reluctantly doing a lot of work with state/county Dems in a rural area but is in fact much more interested in the DSA platforms, I am *extremely* interested in the most granular details of Lee Carter's campaign and how he and his team pulled off that victory.
posted by Tevin at 10:14 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


"what's a unit of smugness?"

I propose "smoog."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:15 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


But instead the sneering is heading straight at Hillary-voters and Democrats.

Really. NO ENEMIES ON THE LEFT, guys.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:15 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


-Apparently Virginia was always blue so this isn't a big deal

like when montpelier was the capital of the confederacy

like when loving v. minnesota overturned interracial marriage bans

yup, always blue that virginia
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:16 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


Charles Pierce: Maybe We're Seeing a Backlash to the Whitelash: Making sense of Tuesday night's Democratic sweep.
Maybe it was the backlash to the whitelash. Maybe Gillespie just couldn’t carry the Neanderthal act off. Or maybe the voters of Virginia were just tired of being part of the peanut gallery for a vulgar talking yam. Northam won by a resounding nine points. His sweep was total. The Democrats even carried so many seats in the state’s House of Delegates that control is going to be decided through recounts, and they did it by casting a net far and wide for candidates. Bob Marshall, a 26-year Republican incumbent whose clownish homophobia had brought him to the attention of this shebeen long ago, lost to Danica Noem, a heavy-metal vocalist, former TV reporter, and the first trans person ever elected statewide in this country. Despite her unique biography, Noem ran on one of the oldest and most important issues in American politics: improved road construction. To have the first trans candidate elected on a platform straight out of Tip O’Neill is extraordinarily encouraging.

...

If you’re looking for an unsung hero in Virginia, and if you’re looking for a role model who should embarrass all the squabbling Democrats who are still relitigating the dismal 2016 primary process, look to Tom Perriello, the former Democratic congressman who lost to Northam in the Democratic primary this year. Perriello suited up and worked tirelessly for the Democratic ticket up and down the ballot, including for the man who’d beaten him. Perriello’s performance not only piled him up serious cred within his party, it also should shame a lot of people in that party’s upper echelon.

Moreover, the noxious tone adopted by Gillespie was rejected at almost every level of government all across the country. A Sikh was elected mayor of Hoboken, and a Liberian immigrant named Wilmot Collins ran as a progressive for mayor of Helena, Montana, and beat a four-term Republican incumbent. African-American mayors were elected for the first time in Statesboro, Milledgeville, and Cairo in Georgia, and in St. Paul, Minnesota. Charlotte elected its first African-American woman to be its mayor. All of these people were Democrats. If there is a wave coming in 2018, and I’m still not sure there is, these races are the stirrings of the underwater earthquake that produces a tsunami.
posted by homunculus at 10:19 AM on November 8 [41 favorites]


I really hope last night shuts down at least some of the DEMOCRATS CAN NEVER WIN WITH ELITIST LIBRUL NANCY PELOSI AT THE TOP!!! nonsense.
posted by lalex at 10:20 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


Ha! That McAuliffe gif. "I should stop? ok"

oooh yeah that guy makes my dancing skills look Prince-worthy and I'm an Indian-American who was adopted by Dutch-Americans. It's a perfect storm of please never move your body again.
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:20 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


oh shit by Prince I might have meant Michael Jackson. *shrug* this only intensifies the power of my argument, really
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:21 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Metafilter: this only intensifies the power of my argument, really
posted by Chrysostom at 10:23 AM on November 8 [20 favorites]


From The Whelk's link above:

At the same time, Carter was happy to talk about socialism when asked. “If you’re to the left of Barry Goldwater, Republicans are going to call you a socialist anyway, so you may as well just own the label,” he said.

Yes! I've been saying this for years; glad to see someone win with this philosophy. We need to keep an eye on this gentleman, that's a promising attitude.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:24 AM on November 8 [40 favorites]


MoJo: Voting Rights Could Be the Biggest Winner in Tuesday’s Democratic Victories | Virginia, New Jersey, and Washington are poised to increase access to the ballot.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:27 AM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Yes, the right attitude is "meh, I don't care too much what label you want to put on me -- here's what we plan to do and how we're going to make it work for the people."
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:29 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


More Charles Pierce: Sorry, But American Democracy Is Still Edging Closer to Disaster: Wisconsin became the 28th state to back a constitutional convention.
Are you ready to have your mellow harshed just a little? On Tuesday, when nobody was looking, the state of Wisconsin brought the country a step closer to a constitutional bloodbath unseen since 1789. The Wisconsin state senate voted, 19-14, to join the call for an Article V convention of the states to propose amendments to the federal Constitution, and what should make you feel very secure about trading James Madison for, say, Mark Levin, is that the Republicans who voted for this monstrosity basically knew fck-all about the issue.

...

The movement for this convention was born in the dark-money plutocracy of the current American political system. It aims to fasten an oligarchy to what still would be the shell of a self-governing republic. The tell is in the issues. They are a wish list of conservative policies that were shredded under the existing Constitution. Among them are The Worst Idea In American Politics, the Balanced Budget Amendment, which never was going to get the votes to pass on its own, either in the Congress or in the states; and an amendment that would establish term limits for members of the national legislature, which the Supreme Court declared unconstitutional 22 years ago in U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton.

...

At first, the proponents of this disaster argued that a convention could be limited—to, say, passing The Worst Idea In American Politics—and, when constitutional scholars laughed that off, the proponents switched to the argument that we shouldn’t worry about the convention’s running wild because…wait for it… the state legislatures will refuse to approve really crazy amendments. (The Balanced Budget Amendment is a really crazy amendment, but never mind.) Regardless of Tuesday night’s results in Virginia, I’m not sanguine about handing the basic structure of the American government over to the caretakers of our current laboratories of democracy.

There are now 28 states on board this death train. They are six states away. This is a clear and present danger.
posted by homunculus at 10:31 AM on November 8 [26 favorites]


Perriello is an excellent example of how to do it right. Fuck yes, primary people to try to get more liberal candidates. And then if you lose, get in line and pull for the guy who won, because somewhat better than the opponent is still *better*. My god, there was so much whining about McAuliffe and I saw plenty of people flouncing and saying they could never vote for him. And maybe in some perfect world there was a better more left and even more successful governor. But the guy who signed *thousands* of restoration rights personally is still a fuckton better than any Republican would be. You take the marginal successes and you build on them, you don't sulk like a child because your perfect candidate isn't there.
posted by tavella at 10:33 AM on November 8 [52 favorites]


go home charles pierce, you had too many margaritas with justinian last night
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:35 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Run Everywhere Virginia has a recount fund set up for the close races. Looks like they're just one seat away from a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates.
posted by duffell at 10:37 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Yeah, I'm not letting the prospect of a Constitutional Convention harsh my mellow. Even if they get the supermajority they need to invoke one, they'd still need a supermajority for anything specific they want to do there. It'll be ACA repeal all over again, with bickering and squabbling and any given proposal savaged from the left and right.

Republicans are pretty good at getting their fractured and rowdy caucus in line to "do something". They're pretty bad at convincing everybody that a specific something is the thing to do.
posted by jackbishop at 10:44 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


"yup, always blue that Virginia"

As long as people can simultaneously think the left are all rich academics in our ivory towers and also lazy and on welfare, I will not lose faith on people's capacity for cognitive dissonance.

This are also the people who think Mexicans are lazy but somehow taking our jobs.

So yeah I guess Virginia has always been like Vermont in Breitbartland.
posted by Tarumba at 10:45 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Yes, the right attitude is "meh, I don't care too much what label you want to put on me -- here's what we plan to do and how we're going to make it work for the people."

My philosophy now is "grab that Overton window by its frame…and put your back into it, dammit!"

When a conservative uses "liberal" as an insult, you don't get defensive, you get excited. "Indeed I am! And here's where I'd like us to go with it…" When told outlawing guns will mean only outlaws will have guns, get excited. "Yes! Now you get it!" If told that health care for all is socialism, "Yeah, ain't that great!"

We absolutely need to run with this. Americans aren't inherently right wing, our government currently is. That can be changed. Lee Carter is right, the New Deal did give us 50 years of stability and economic power, and was shockingly leftist compared to the current era. And guess what, it was still capitalist. We can do that again if we can wrestle a bit of control back from the corporate overlords of the conservatives.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:45 AM on November 8 [33 favorites]


Alexandra Erin has posted the "Notification of Impending Change of Address" form she'll be mailing to her governor. "I encourage you to join me in doing this, or doing a similar equivalent for your situation. Declare your intentions, and laugh in their faces."
Recipient should be prepared to hit (check all that apply):

- The road, Jack
- The skids, pal
- The bricks, Mack
- The trail, buckaroo

In addition to not coming back, the recipient should not (check all that apply):

- Come around here no more, no more
- Let the door hit you on the way out
- Darken our doorsteps again
- Say we didn't warn you
posted by brainwane at 10:48 AM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Most people seem to on board with the obvious lesson that liberals of all stripes will win elections in this country if they stick together. But I'm surprised how many people are seeing the results from yesterday and saying "see, we don't need Dems!" Which seems beyond deluded.

I know a fair bit of it is propaganda shit stirring, and I guess the rest is tribalism, which I'm not good at.

Yes, the right attitude is "meh, I don't care too much what label you want to put on me -- here's what we plan to do and how we're going to make it work for the people."


Yes. Much more of this. The labels are there to divide.
posted by bongo_x at 10:51 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]


So my main takeaway from this thread is that there are apparently several other MeFites living in Richmond. We should have a RVA meetup!
posted by Jacqueline at 10:52 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


You know, for a while I disliked but didn't despise Hogan. My "hit the road Jack" moment came earlier this year when he seized on an alleged sexual assault by Salvadoran-born high school students in Rockville as a golden opportunity to demonize immigrants. Fuck that guy.
posted by duffell at 10:53 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


Run Everywhere Virginia has a recount fund set up for the close races. Looks like they're just one seat away from a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates.

Yup. The tally now stands at 50/50, an insane gain from the GOP's 66/34 majority this year. A single extra seat would have allowed them to override Northam's vetoes, and then this happens instead.

To be a bit more specific, though, there are six races where the current tally (which I believe includes absentee ballots but not provisionals) has either a two-digit or three-digit margin, and those are split evenly as well with three Democrats leading before recounts and three Republicans leading. Democrats need a +1 swing after recounts and outstanding provisional/absentee ballots. Not impossible, but also not something I'd bet my life on.

To make things even more complicated, there is no tiebreaker in the House of Delegates. If the chamber is evenly split, the parties will have to work out a power-sharing agreement. Last time this happened they each got one year holding the speakership.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:54 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Danica Roem is gonna need an FPP when she gets sworn in. She's terrific and the achievement is historic.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:55 AM on November 8 [14 favorites]


I'm gonna want video of the first time she throws up the horns on the House floor.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:59 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]


BREAKING: Dawn Adams (D) has unseated Del. Manoli Loupassi (R) in Richmond's #HD68. Dems +15, need 2 more for control. 3 GOP seats left outstanding.

That's really surprising. Even the Richmond Crusade for Voters endorsed Loupassi.
posted by Jacqueline at 11:04 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Seeing this happenning on your side of the world, fills me with... envy, and a bit of sadness, i'm embarassed to admit. Here in Argentina we are about to see one of the most brutal redrafting of labour laws, and it's going to utterly, utterly fuck us.

But honestly, my heartfelt congratulations. This is truly a breath of fresh air. Maybe a whiff of this change will float down south.
posted by _Synesthesia_ at 11:08 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Danica Roem's election is an important milestone for LGBT Americans, but she got into office on an absolutely horrific platform that will be bad for Northern Virginia and her district. She was a single-issue highway-widening candidate. Northern Virginia has too many people, terrible planning, not enough transit, and a lot of preventable traffic fatalities. Her plan proposes throwing more roads at the problem, and removing some stop lights for good measure. This is exactly how her district got to this terrible state of affairs in the first place. </rant>
posted by schmod at 11:08 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


As we're seeing in Congress, the whole committee-hearings-and-amendments process actually does serve a purpose in producing functional legislation!

I had a poli sci professor in California who told us the biggest problem with CA's initiative process (and others around the country) is that it lets professional legislators off the hook. Never found much to detract from that argument. Yes, the initiatives let people push through things their legislators don't have the courage to do -- but it also lets through crazy shit that responsible professionals should stop, too.

Nobody needs to exercise any political courage when you can just step aside and let initiatives do things. And if the initiative is crazy the legislators can just shrug.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:10 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


VA-27, where the Republicans lead by over 100 votes was the scene of an unusual glitch. Poll workers shut down the voting machines early by "mistake" at Falling Creek. Coincidentally, Falling Creek is the most reliable Democratic precinct in the whole county. It went 2:1 for Clinton in 2016. There are only 1,241 votes reported for Falling Creek compared to 2,442. In my polling place (next door to Falling Creek) our turnout was 75% of 2016. Overall, it looks like turnout was about 68% of 2016. That suggests there may be as many as 500 votes "missing" from Falling Creek, which could tip the race if they are uncounted provisional ballots.
posted by Lame_username at 11:13 AM on November 8 [41 favorites]


Ugh, I knew she ran on "traffic sucks," and I live just a fifteen-minute drive from her district so I can confirm it does in fact suck the big one, but I didn't realize her solution was highways and more highways. Metro everywhere, dammit!
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:13 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Danica Roem is gonna need an FPP when she gets sworn in. She's terrific and the achievement is historic.

I am here for it.

Hearing her last night, and the utter brilliance behind this comment, gives me high hopes that we'll hear a lot more from her. Noting schmod's concern leads me to another point:

Some of these politicians will let us down - its not just likely but inevitable. Being elated today at the breadth of representation in the winners last night is reasonable, but we must fight to keep these folks accountable and resist their opponents needs to tie their eventual failings to their identities. There is an intrinsically prejudicial aspect to the tokenism underlying some of the excitement at seeing diverse candidates - when white men fail its just what happens, when the first [insert demographic descriptor here] fails, its too easy to take it as a sign that historic exclusion was warranted.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:15 AM on November 8 [43 favorites]


Most people seem to on board with the obvious lesson that liberals of all stripes will win elections in this country if they stick together. But I'm surprised how many people are seeing the results from yesterday and saying "see, we don't need Dems!" Which seems beyond deluded.

I know a fair bit of it is propaganda shit stirring, and I guess the rest is tribalism, which I'm not good at.


Yes to both, and I would add in some hurt fee-fees from hardcore "BernieBro" types. Who do they think won all those races? Yes, the DSA won a few (and I applaud that!) but the rest were all Democrats.

I hope that lefties, no matter how they feel about Bernie, follow the sterling example of Tom Perriello and go for support and unity over divisiveness and petulance.

That said, I think there's something buried here, and it's not "we don't need Democrats," it's "we don't need to chase the elusive swing voter by running the most centrist, bland, 'electable' candidates we have." Socialists have won, progressives have won, trans women have won. Maybe the Third Way is still a winner in some areas, some of the time, but we don't have to keep putting forward a bunch of bland empty suits in the name of "electability."

It also seems like a lot of the support came from the grassroots, rather than the DNC and so on. We need the Democrats, we don't need organizations that purport to "help Democrats win" but are really sinecures for consultants. (I am not in favor of disbanding the DNC, but mending it, yes, same for the DFA who pulled out of endorsing Northam, wtf?)
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 11:15 AM on November 8 [20 favorites]


Voters in Fort Collins, Colorado, yesterday approved a ballot question that authorizes the city to build a broadband network, rejecting a cable and telecom industry campaign against the initiative.

The exciting thing about this one is that, unlike Fort Collins's 2015 vote to authorize the city to provide broadband services (and 69 Colorado municipalities have already voted for that, plus probably another 16 this week), this ballot question authorizes the city to borrow money to make it happen.

So far, only a handful of Colorado cities have gotten from the initial vote to providing service, so one more likely success is something to cheer.
posted by asperity at 11:17 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]


That said, I think there's something buried here, and it's not "we don't need Democrats," it's "we don't need to chase the elusive swing voter by running the most centrist, bland, 'electable' candidates we have." Socialists have won, progressives have won, trans women have won.

Not to mention lots of other women, lots of people of color, and at least one Sikh. They won.
posted by Gelatin at 11:18 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish: "Ugh, I knew she ran on "traffic sucks," and I live just a fifteen-minute drive from her district so I can confirm it does in fact suck the big one, but I didn't realize her solution was highways and more highways. Metro everywhere, dammit!"

She admittedly has a fun plan to fund a Virginia Tech study to figure out why rail construction is cheaper in Europe. If we haven't actually thrown some money/PhDs at that problem, I'd be surprised, but it's also absolutely something worth funding.
posted by schmod at 11:20 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


RVA Meetup organizing page for all my fellow Richmonders who've outed themselves in this thread. :)
posted by Jacqueline at 11:21 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


GET RID OF YOUR FUCKING VOTING MACHINES PEN AND PAPER PEN AND PAPER SAY IT A THOUSAND TIMES
posted by Yowser at 11:23 AM on November 8 [32 favorites]


When it comes to Republican focus groups, keep in mind they can massage you out of the dataset if they want. Whatever you decide to do should be for your own satisfaction.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 11:23 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


When it comes to Republican focus groups, keep in mind they can massage you out of the dataset if they want. Whatever you decide to do should be for your own satisfaction.

So you're saying, "masturbate yourself to climax," yes? I thought that was the Republican pollster's job.
posted by duffell at 11:25 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


GET RID OF YOUR FUCKING VOTING MACHINES PEN AND PAPER PEN AND PAPER SAY IT A THOUSAND TIMES

Note that Virginia does vote by pen and paper -- the machines are only involved in tabulation, which is done through an optical reader like the Scantrons that score SATs. Whatever fuckery might have happened in that district, there's a paper trail.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:27 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


Yeah, I hope the idea of bland "electable" compromise as the only viable way forwards has been burned to the ground. You don't compromise with people who want to kill you.
posted by Artw at 11:28 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


Yes to both, and I would add in some hurt fee-fees from hardcore "BernieBro" types.

can we not with the "fee-fees"?
posted by lalex at 11:28 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


I said it on twitter and I'll say it here: You know who's electable in 2017? People who are pissed the hell off at the state of the world and have a plan to do something about it.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:29 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


can we not with the "fee-fees"?

Or any of that tedious wank?
posted by Artw at 11:29 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]


OK let me amend that.

PEN(/PENCIL) AND PAPER, COUNT BY HAND.

ffs
posted by Yowser at 11:30 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]


BSG rules. No networked machines!
posted by Artw at 11:33 AM on November 8 [19 favorites]


Ugh, I'm an idiot. Although Falling Creek is indeed next door to me, they aren't in the 27th. They got gerrymandered into the 70th in the last round of tomfoolery into one of the 90% Democratic districts. *sigh*
posted by Lame_username at 11:33 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]


No. Counting by hand when there are lots of different races on the same ballot is a recipe for error.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:33 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Count by scantron initially; recount if it's within a certain margin for confirmation (1%? half percent? Depends on size of district?), and by special demand requiring a judge and evidence and whatnot.

The point is to have a paper trail, not to insist that human hands and eyes do all of the work. There's no point in careful hand counting when one side is winning by tens of thousands of votes, unless you have a solid reason to suspect shenanigans.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:37 AM on November 8 [24 favorites]


Danica Roem's election is an important milestone for LGBT Americans, but she got into office on an absolutely horrific platform that will be bad for Northern Virginia and her district. She was a single-issue highway-widening candidate.

I wouldn't call the widening of 28 horrific; it's not going to fix traffic, but it could integrate that portion of Prince William County into the economic growth that's being driven by the Dulles corridor. 28 is already six lanes, no traffic lights in Loudoun and Fairfax, why can't that model push a few more miles south? It's going to open the way for a bunch of failing strip malls full of vape shops to be redeveloped into businesses that could actually contribute to the tax base. The big problem with that, and her proposal to extend Godwin Drive into Centreville, is that Centreville will fight it tooth and nail.
posted by peeedro at 11:40 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]


As the length of a discussion about traffic in NoVa tends towards infinity, the probability of someone suggesting to extend Godwin Drive tends towards 1.
posted by ocschwar at 11:46 AM on November 8 [37 favorites]


Yeah, optical scanning is fine as long as there is a paper trail. That's what we do here, and a 1% hand recount is required by law. They take random batches of ballots, hand count them twice in front of public observes, compare those to the machine count totals from election day, and ensure it all matches up. If there are discrepancies, then there's a warehouse full of the original paper ballots, and you can recount them all you want, go to court to fight over them, whatever, because it's all right there.

The problem is machines that just record votes electronically, because you can't go back and recount those in any useful way. Why the objection to machine counting of paper ballots?
posted by zachlipton at 11:46 AM on November 8 [22 favorites]


I'd like to believe that most (all?) of the first-of-their-category electees will consider that, whatever issues they ran on, they're probably going to be facing a lot of other complexities that weren't apparent before they got into office. I'm hoping that they'll bring the empathy and the cleverness that let them beat out the bigot hate machine, and work to improve the lives of all their constituents, even if that means adjusting some of their plans.

I'd love to see them be transparent about that: "I ran on X, but I have now realized we are facing side issues Y and Z as well. I want to amend X to something that helps everyone by adding an exception for Y and a block for Z, and here's why I think that's still giving you what you need." But I'm not holding out for that part; just hoping they can realize that "what the people who voted for me wanted most" isn't always "what everyone should get."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:47 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


As the length of a discussion about traffic in NoVa tends towards infinity, the probability of someone suggesting to extend Godwin Drive tends towards 1.

I prefer the equally likely but far more satisfying option of traveling back in time, finding the guy who laid out 66, and stringing him up by his toenails.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:49 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]


As the length of a discussion about traffic in NoVa tends towards infinity, the probability of someone suggesting to extend Godwin Drive tends towards 1.
Godwin Drive's Law, I presume.
posted by jferg at 11:50 AM on November 8 [17 favorites]


> As the length of a discussion about traffic in NoVa tends towards infinity, the probability of someone suggesting to extend Godwin Drive tends towards 1.

this is my new favorite metafilter comment ever.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:52 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]


Meanwhile, on MSNBC: they found some black dude in Florida who still supports Trump to interview so I guess that's the important news of today from our librul msm
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:54 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]


Yeah, optical scanning is fine as long as there is a paper trail.

How would you have optical scanning without a paper trail? Auto-shred the document as you scan it?
posted by phearlez at 11:55 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]


awwwww @Patricia Zengerle?:
Friend who's a Virginia poll volunteer sent me this anecdote from yesterday: One 91-year-old woman, limping noticeably and her hand bandaged, who came out in the rain to vote, said “Mr. Obama called me and said it was important to vote.” Who says robocalls don’t work?
THANKS OBAMA
posted by lalex at 11:58 AM on November 8 [108 favorites]


Danica Roem's election is an important milestone for LGBT Americans, but she got into office on an absolutely horrific platform that will be bad for Northern Virginia and her district. She was a single-issue highway-widening candidate.

She was a two issue candidate - Route 28 , and not being Bob Marshall. However I feel about road widening, her second issue overrules everything.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:07 PM on November 8 [39 favorites]


VA HOD update - canvassing going on in districts (canvassing is basically where you review your work and make sure somebody didn't write 32 when they meant 23).

* GOP now has the lead in HD-40 by 115 votes. That's within the recall limit, but probably too big to swing unless something really went funky.

* HD-94 Dem initially trailed by 12 votes. There are as many 50 provisional ballots outstanding. Consensus seems to be that this will still likely end up with the Dem in the lead.

If things go as expected at this point - 27, 28, 40 all stay GOP lead, and 94 flips - we end up with a 50-50 HOD.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:21 PM on November 8 [12 favorites]






Tarumba: "
So yeah I guess Virginia has always been like Vermont in Breitbartland.
"

FUN FACTS DEPT: Vermont voted GOP for president every time but one from 1854 to 1988.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:27 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


And in "Oh For Fuck's Sake" news out of Seattle: apparently voter turnout for the general is way lower than turnout for the general.

Someone noted this on Facebook, and I went looking for sources. I'm trying to run down a more clearly apples-to-apples comparison than these two readouts for the Seattle August 1st primary and the turnout for the general. (Sorry, you'll have to Ctrl+F for Seattle. Look for the mayor's races.)

If I'm reading these right, the primary pulled in 187,741 ballots.
The general pulled in 105,857 ballots.

All I can think is that a lot of people didn't see their candidate from the mayoral primary move on to the general so they took their ball and went home. I really hope I'm wrong, because god damn it, Seattle.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:29 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


we end up with a 50-50 HOD.

Just a reminder that the current VA House makeup is 66 R, 34 D. This is a stunning accomplishment for everyone in Virginia who worked towards change.
posted by lalex at 12:29 PM on November 8 [40 favorites]


Oh, absolutely! I was on the super optimistic end of predictions, and I thought maybe a dozen.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:34 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


And in "Oh For Fuck's Sake" news out of Seattle: apparently voter turnout for the general is way lower than turnout for the general.

OK, remember that a lot of ballots won't even arrive at King County Elections until the mail comes in mid-day. Of late about half of the final ballot total comes in with the Wednesday mail.

But yeah, even a 200K turnout is shitty. People don't come out for the off-year even though all the city and county stuff is up then.
posted by dw at 12:36 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


And in "Oh For Fuck's Sake" news out of Seattle: apparently voter turnout for the general is way lower than turnout for the general.

Uh. 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other?
posted by XtinaS at 12:36 PM on November 8


oh I know that no one knows better than you what a big deal this is, Chrysostom! I just enjoyed typing it.
posted by lalex at 12:37 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


The Virginia delegate races results are absolutely shocking because our districts are heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. So Virginia has gone so far blue that they can't win even despite the game being rigged in their favor.

I have a very politically diverse Facebook feed and my Republican friends are losing their fucking minds today.
posted by Jacqueline at 12:38 PM on November 8 [28 favorites]


Uh. 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other?

Oh god damn it. This is what happens when somebody gives me an edit window: I have even less excuse for fucking up. I meant turnout for the general is much lower than the primary. My bad.

(Hopefully dw is right about the ballots still arriving.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:39 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Cathy Murillo becomes first Latina mayor of Santa Barbara.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:51 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Ace field reporter Jessamyn West points out that library related measures did very well.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:52 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


Last night:

The blood from the slaughtered goat puddled on the stone floor, the black and red candles guttered. On the wall, a television blared the results of the Virginia election.
"Nothing happened." Ryan whispered.
"Shut up." Bannon snapped.
"It's supposed to work. It worked before! " A note of hysteria creeped into Session's voice.
"Shut UP! I'm THINKING! "
"More. " A phlegmy chuckle echoed from the darkness.
"Not enough." Lee Atwater gurgled. "More."
posted by happyroach at 12:54 PM on November 8 [29 favorites]



Danica Roem's election is an important milestone for LGBT Americans, but she got into office on an absolutely horrific platform that will be bad for Northern Virginia and her district. She was a single-issue highway-widening candidate. Northern Virginia has too many people, terrible planning, not enough transit, and a lot of preventable traffic fatalities. Her plan proposes throwing more roads at the problem, and removing some stop lights for good measure. This is exactly how her district got to this terrible state of affairs in the first place.


She told Cosmo that she figures she'll make up for income loss and campaign costs through a book deal. That took me back a little, but I'd read the book and probably love it. I'm in D.C, so not a constituent, but I like her a lot.
posted by jgirl at 12:55 PM on November 8


Minneapolis mayoral race has just been called for Jacob Frey. Frey is a 36-year-old DFLer (DFL = Democrat-Farmer-Labor party in Minnesota).
posted by Elly Vortex at 1:00 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Elly Vortex: "Minneapolis mayoral race has just been called for Jacob Frey. Frey is a 36-year-old DFLer (DFL = Democrat-Farmer-Labor party in Minnesota)."

I love that the comments after the article are bitching about bike-lanes. I think that 75% of newspaper comments in my city are complaints about bike-lanes and cyclists so I'm glad that it's universal.
posted by octothorpe at 1:04 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


A phlegmy chuckle echoed from the darkness.
"Not enough." Lee Atwater gurgled. "More."


More good news today: the art of rhetoric is not completely dead in this, our beloved land.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:04 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


scaryblackdeath, you can see the ballot return statistics for Seattle and the rest of King County here; it is updated twice daily for some time after the election.
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 1:05 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Chrysostom: Cathy Murillo becomes first Latina mayor of Santa Barbara
"I ran a positive campaign and got a positive result," said Murillo.

She said negative campaign ads, paid for by others, didn't steal her optimism.
...
She congratulated other projected winners including Gregg Hart and Eric Friedman (plus Kristen Sneddon, per election results). They are expected to be seated on Santa Barbara's most progressive city council to date.
Sadly, the one paper in town is still owned by a rabid Trumpista, Wendy McCaw, who gutted the paper from a staff of 200 to 20. On the website, the current top stories are:

1. underselling/undercutting Murillo's win -- Mayor-illo -- "Did I win? I think I won!" Disbelief turned to joy for Councilwoman Cathy Murillo as opening results from Tuesday's election showed she had a commanding lead in the race for Santa Barbara mayor.

2. an editorial against affirmative action: Guest Opinion: The pitiful perils of Asian success -- The Heritage Foundation's Hans von Spakovsky was on our radio show discussing the big Asian problem progressives and universities have on their hands regarding affirmative action programs.

And you can't actually see the articles unless you pay. The site looks like shit, and subscriptions are down around half of what they were in 2000.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:07 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


The Virginia delegate races results are absolutely shocking because our districts are heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. So Virginia has gone so far blue that they can't win even despite the game being rigged in their favor.

Or (and sorry for being Debbie Downer here), the gerrymandering was so effective that enough Democrats voted to end up with a 10-point margin and are most likely to end up with a deadlocked HOD or even still in the minority.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:16 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


> Ace field reporter Jessamyn West points out that library related measures did very well.

Not so well in Westmoreland County, PA, though. :/
posted by tonycpsu at 1:17 PM on November 8


The Virginia delegate races results are absolutely shocking because our districts are heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. So Virginia has gone so far blue that they can't win even despite the game being rigged in their favor.

I have a very politically diverse Facebook feed and my Republican friends are losing their fucking minds today.


Maryland Democrats, who regularly take a beating from the Republican governor over their heavily gerrymandered state, have proposed a compromise multi-state deal that would un-gerrymander both MD and VA, but only if both agree to it. Unsurprisingly, VA Republicans and MD's Republican governor have done nothing to meet them halfway there. It'll be interesting to see what happens with that, if anything.
posted by duffell at 1:18 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


That's the ethical and moral route; Democrats in power should gerrymander the fuck out of their states while also offering Republicans a deal where both Ds and Rs un-partisan-gerrymander simultaneously.
posted by Justinian at 1:22 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


Well, I think their earlier "deal" was offered with fairly tepid expectations of their chances of overseeing redistricting in VA next time around. MD Dems don't really have to offer anything now. Hogan lost his shot there, I think.

If he'd taken the deal seriously last year, the Democrats would look terrible if they tried to go back on it later.

All things being equal, I'd prefer to live in an ungerrymandered state, even if it *is* gerrymandered for the Dems. I suspect one of the reasons VA Republicans got caught with their pants down is that gerrymandering makes you lazy; few of them had ever needed to WORK for a vote in their lives. You see that with a lot of Democrats here in MD, too.
posted by duffell at 1:29 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


I liked these remarks from David Klion, a writer for Al-Jazeera America and the World Politics Review, on Twitter:
to see happy tweets for once

Nice, also, that both sides of the left-lib wars have plenty to be happy about. Maybe we can finally move on from 2016. Maybe the two approaches can complement each other.

Actually I'll amend that. Both sides have reasons to be happy *despite* (because of?) a year of open recriminations. It turns out we can have necessary internecine fights without undermining the goal of beating Republicans.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 1:30 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


Chrysostom: Cathy Murillo becomes first Latina mayor of Santa Barbara

Seriously? That's awesome! I haven't been following the news of my old hometown, but well... it's hard to explain the peculiar strain of traditionalism and conservativism that pops up occasionally. Needless to say, this is good news.
posted by happyroach at 1:31 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I think gerrymandering is bad, even if my candidates benefit. Representation should match the wishes of the voters.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:37 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Unilateral disarmament does nothing but hand power to those who don't disarm, i.e. Republicans.
posted by Justinian at 1:38 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Oh, sure. I just mean, even if we somehow gerrymandered every state in such a way that House representation matched the popular vote, I'd still be against it. No gerrymanders anywhere is the goal. In the interim, I'll put down my gun if you put down yours.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:40 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Who advocated for unilateral disarmament?
posted by duffell at 1:40 PM on November 8


I thought Chrysostom was saying that Democrats should refuse to gerrymander in places they controlled even while Republicans continued to do so, but he clarified in
the next comment so my point is void.
posted by Justinian at 1:41 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I like the dual goal: Gerrymander for Democratic results - which is pretty much you get by dividing districts based on normal residential demographics, but go ahead and twist them to the best possible results, AND push for nonpartisan districting measures to take over in the future.

Redistricting is an existing ability. Might as well use the tools that are available. Having a different method of sorting out the districts takes new legislature - push for that separately, AFTER redistricting, to give Republicans a reason to go along with it.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:42 PM on November 8


Does anyone have any good links about the theory and practice of non-partisan districting? I know it is a complicated subject. But what's current thought on the best way to do it?
posted by Justinian at 1:43 PM on November 8


>I think gerrymandering is bad, even if my candidates benefit. Representation should match the wishes of the voters.

Unilateral disarmament does nothing but hand power to those who don't disarm, i.e. Republicans.


The way I, personally, square those in my head is that we really need some kind of national-level reform; we need a new Voting Rights Act that covers all fifty states (and hopefully DC and Puerto Rico eventually, if they want statehood) that would level the playing field and better ensure fair representation across every state, in one go. And the best way to get to that point is not disarming until that fight is over -- gerrymandering is a battle that gets fought at the state level, and we needn't disarm until the win the actual war. Because my worry is that every time a state un-gerrymanders without some kind of Federal-level protection against it being undone...it will just get undone, sooner or later. I would prefer a world where we have fair representation -- but we need that for everyone in the country. That's the goal to keep our eye on.
posted by cjelli at 1:45 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


I love that the comments after the article are bitching about bike-lanes.

Octothorpe, it's just never ending. Its like that episode of the Simpsons in which Lisa needs braces: "Dental plan!" "Lisa needs braces!" "Dental plan!" "Lisa needs braces!" "Dental plan!" "Lisa needs braces!"

Only its: "Bike lanes!" "Where are we gonna park our cars!?" "Bike lanes!" "Where are we gonna park our cars!?" "Bike lanes!" "Where are we gonna park our cars!?"
posted by Elly Vortex at 1:49 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


bongo_x: But I'm surprised how many people are seeing the results from yesterday and saying "see, we don't need Dems!" Which seems beyond deluded.

Yeah, that's the nightmare scenario. There is no better way to lock in a terrible future than for the farther left side of the spectrum to try to regularly run on their own against Democrats in the general. When things go right, Democrats can manage to pull together a coalition of little bit more than half the country between the centrists and the left. Even the relatively petty current minor parties on the left have twice this century ensured the election of dreadful presidents.

If you can't win a primary, then it's pretty fucking unlikely that you are going to be able to swing the general. The delusion that somehow there are millions of voters who didn't vote for you in the primary but will in the general is just that, a delusion.

Now this should go both ways -- if for example, a DSA candidate wins the Dem primary, the Democratic establishment should support them, and should treat any primary loser who tries to run as an independent in the general as absolute poison.
posted by tavella at 1:50 PM on November 8 [16 favorites]


In addition to Andrea Jenkins, it's now official that Minneapolis has elected a second transgender POC to city council, Phillipe Cunningham!

Phillipe will reportedly be the first out trans masculine elected official in the US.
posted by castlebravo at 1:52 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


Justinian, Nonprofit Vote has an article about citizens' commissions drawing districts. CA's push for redistricting reform requires that "Independent Redistricting Commissions shall reflect the geographic, racial, ethnic, gender, and age diversity of the state." (Religion isn't mentioned; neither is orientation. But I'm pretty sure that doesn't mean an exact percentage representation anyway.)

I suspect one of the aspects of impartial districts is banning the use of party affiliation in drawing the maps. It'd be hard to remove all signs of that (if you can sort a bit by income, which is reasonable if you're trying to put communities together, you'll get some party-line splits), but just making sure the districting committee doesn't have direct access to party membership data, and requiring that they post not just the results but their explanations, should fix the vast majority of the gerrymandering.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:56 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


Does anyone have any good links about the theory and practice of non-partisan districting? I know it is a complicated subject. But what's current thought on the best way to do it?

For single-member districts? I dunno offhand but Canada, the UK and France (among others that aren't coming to mind) manage to do it so it's not like it's as complicated as sending someone to the moon.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:58 PM on November 8


Or, if you want to assume a duopoly, you could let the two major parties draw alternating districts? But um that's as far as I'm willing to go into game theory time
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:01 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I read about one gerrymandering strategy called I Cut You Freeze: one side draws the lines around equal numbers of people, the other side picks a district and freezes it in place and redraws the remaining districts, from which the other side chooses one to freeze, and so on until all the districts are cut and frozen.

This is how my brother and I divvied up dessert when we were kids, too. One of us slices, the other chooses and so you may as well slice them evenly.

You’d probably have to pass this via initiative because good luck getting both sides to agree to that.
posted by notyou at 2:16 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]


Topeka, KS elects as mayor first Latina (and only second woman).
posted by Chrysostom at 2:20 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


"You’d probably have to pass this via initiative because good luck getting both sides to agree to that."

We don't have ballot initiatives in Virginia.
posted by Jacqueline at 2:22 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Black Lives Matter activist wins seat on Charlotte, NC City Council.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:24 PM on November 8 [23 favorites]


Being elated today at the breadth of representation in the winners last night is reasonable, but we must fight to keep these folks accountable

I read this as borderline concern-trolling -- kind of like when Bernie Sanders said "It's not good enough for somebody to say 'hey I'm a Latina vote for me' ...It is not good enough for somebody to say, 'I'm a woman, vote for me."

It's insulting to non-cis-het-white-male candidates and voters -- it's not like anyone out there is saying "well, as long as we get a woman president I don't care whether it's Sarah Palin or Hillary Clinton" or "I'm totally fine with either President Ben Carson or President Barack Obama."

I think anyone worried that these diverse candidates would for some reason not be held accountable just because they're not white men can put those concerns to rest.
posted by mrmurbles at 2:29 PM on November 8 [16 favorites]


A slate of anti-school voucher candidates won a contentious race Tuesday night for the Douglas County [Colorado] School Board, effectively killing the district’s controversial voucher program and entirely remaking the seven-member board.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:35 PM on November 8 [11 favorites]


Iowa has a fairly convoluted redistricting system which involves redistricting by civil servants, who are forbidden from taking into account political considerations. Their plan then goes to a commission of five members: two appointed by each party, and one selected by the other four. Then it goes to the state legislature for review. They vote it straight up or down. If they vote it down, it goes back to the civil servants. So far, it seems to have worked pretty well. It's not clear whether the Republicans will keep it, now that they've taken over the state legislature.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:36 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


It's not clear whether the Republicans will keep it, now that they've taken over the state legislature.

If they scrap it, their talking points are predictable enough: "Why should these unelected bureaucrats be drawing the lines? We should entrust our ELECTED officials to set the boundaries, that's the only way to keep it fair." Hopefully folks on the ground in Iowa are prepared enough for this to point out that the Republicans would be trying to choose their own voters instead of the other way around.
posted by duffell at 2:42 PM on November 8


"I cut you freeze" along party lines won't work for redistricting because, theoretically, we don't have party splits for legislature. We have a lot of measures that are backed by members of one party or the other, but the theory is that any measure can be bipartisan or multipartisan.

If you have 54 R, 45 D, and 1 Libertarian in the house, how many districts does the L get to create or lock into place? If you have 75 D and 25 R, is it one-on-one for choosing and locking, or do the Dems get 3/4 of the choices? How about 48 R, 45 D, and 7 DSA?

In order to do "I cut you freeze," first you need to hypothetically equal bodies to share the work. You could make a pair of committees for this - take your district committee and split it in half (by birthdays, perhaps, or some other arbitrary random-ish method), and be left with two groups who've worked together to understand district communities, and are unable to push anyone's bias reliably even if they wanted to, because of the split effect for final creation of the districts.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:44 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


Hell yeah, good job, let's get excited and keep the train rolling, people! [An AIDE whispers into my ear.] I am given to understand that my previous remark is in tremendously bad faith. I am extremely sorry
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 2:45 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


I did not intend my remarks as concern trolling, though I see how they could be read that way. As a straight, cis, white man im genuinely excited to see folks who don't look like me take office, its long overdue (and with every "first x" I think "great, but also, really? never before?").

I was not in the least bit worried that anyone would overlook shortcomings because of the identity of the politician in question - quite the opposite, I am prepared for some/many of the folks elected last night to turn out to be disappointments, because they are people and people are imperfect. I was expressing a thought that tempered some of my excitement last night which is that, at some point, there is going to be a scandal or failing affecting one of last nights winners, and that im not hopeful that it will be viewed in the same narrowly-focused "individual failing" light as when similar issues befall white male electeds.

"keep them accountable" was poor phrasing for this idea - I should probably have said we should hope they succeed and be prepared for some failures/unwelcome revelations, and be vigilant for the racist, misogynist framing that their failures indict entire classes of people when similar arguments are never made about white men.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:55 PM on November 8


Northam got heckled at his victory speech because people are correctly mad at him for wavering on sanctuary cities during the campaign, and that rules. Krasner got critics at his victory speech, intent on holding him to his promises, and that rules, too. Every politician should get this treatment.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 3:04 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


SCREEEEAAAAAMMM

(stuck on bus in traffic)

posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:05 PM on November 8


"keep them accountable" was poor phrasing for this idea - I should probably have said we should hope they succeed and be prepared for some failures/unwelcome revelations, and be vigilant for the racist, misogynist framing that their failures indict entire classes of people when similar arguments are never made about white men.

Fair enough, that makes sense. I was specifically responding to the "this is great but we need to keep people accountable" phrasing which seemed to imply that non-white- men would get a pass from their constituents just because they weren't white men. You see this in the "anti identity politics" groups sometimes -- it's like they believe the republican bogeyman of affirmative action actually exists for political candidates.

But I get that that wasn't your intention and appreciate your clarification.
posted by mrmurbles at 3:06 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


AP, Man charged with DUI after going to vote a day early:
Police in Pennsylvania say they've arrested a man who showed up to an elementary school intoxicated and hoping to vote — on the wrong day.

Authorities charged 34-year-old Douglas Shuttlesworth with a DUI after they found him at a school in Harrisburg on Monday.

Police say Shuttlesworth appeared intoxicated and they later found out he drove to the school thinking it was Election Day.

A woman who identified herself over the phone as Shuttlesworth's mother says her son mistakenly thought it was Tuesday. He was not available to comment on the charge.
Maybe he just followed Donna Brazile's instructions to vote on the 6th?
posted by zachlipton at 3:21 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


Has any organization collected voter turnout percentages yet? I've been trying to find information for Pennsylvania, but no joy so far. My question, more generally, is how does national turnout for yesterday's vote compare to other off-year elections? Any trends or notable data points?
posted by MonkeyToes at 3:33 PM on November 8


There was a Washington Post article a few days ago that said that polling indicated that if HRC and Cheeto were to have a rematch now, Cheeto would still win. This nearly had me slamming my head repeatedly against my laptop keyboard. However, this was a hypothetical and moot question anyway, and yesterday's state and city elections indicated that public opinion is swinging left and/or against Trump and the Republicans. I think between yesterday's liberal/progressive sweep and Mueller's indictments and continuing work, we're seeing the turning of the tide.
posted by orange swan at 3:34 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]


There was a Washington Post article a few days ago that said that polling indicated that if HRC and Cheeto were to have a rematch now

Particularly after last night, I think we need to look forward and focus on the matchups between Trump and Not Hillary.
posted by lalex at 3:40 PM on November 8 [19 favorites]


Someone pointed out that you can't ask afterwards "who would you vote for, the winner or the loser?" and expect to get a serious answer. Because people are weird.
posted by bongo_x at 3:45 PM on November 8 [27 favorites]


There was a Washington Post article a few days ago that said that polling indicated that if HRC and Cheeto were to have a rematch now, Cheeto would still win.

The polls also called the VA Governor's race a toss-up with an expected 2 point margin yesterday and little to no chance of significant gains in the VA House. But yes, looking forward is what we should be doing at this point.
posted by Candleman at 3:46 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


we're seeing the turning of the tide.

NO. BAD. We're not allowed to celebrate yet. We celebrated last night, that's all you get! Today is back to work day, for the next 363 days. And then maybe you can have another bite of cake.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:47 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]


I haven’t thought a lot about the redistricting problem, but this open source software looks interesting.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 3:47 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


NO. BAD. We're not allowed to celebrate yet. We celebrated last night, that's all you get! Today is back to work day, for the next 363 days. And then maybe you can have another bite of cake.
I don't think this is how people work, psychologically. I think that success is motivating, and I'm more worried about despair than complacency. Yesterday was good. You can feel good about it. Now let's build on it.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:52 PM on November 8 [33 favorites]


@jaredleopold (Comm Dir - DemGovs)
Hard to overestimate how hard suburbs broke for Northam:

2013 v. 2017 Dem win margins
- Alexandria: +49% ?? +58%
- Arlington: +49 ?? +61
- Fairfax Co: +22 ?? +37
- Falls Church: +48 ?? +59
- Loudoun: +4 ?? +20
- Prince William: +8 ?? +21

But it's not just NoVa. Suburbanizing counties across Virginia moved towards Northam.

2013 v. 2017
- Albemarle: +19 ?? +29
- Henrico: +13 ?? +22
- Chesterfield: -8 ?? -0.5
- Virginia Beach: -2 ?? +5
- Chesapeake: +3 ?? +9
- James City: -9 ?? +0.5

In a sign of Gillespie backlash, some of the most Latino precincts in VA moved to Northam:

2013 v. 2017 margin:
- Manassas Park, Precinct 2: +13 ?? +34
- Prince William, Kilby: +39 ?? +48
- Fairfax Co, Westlawn: +35 ?? +55
- Fairfax Co. Lynbrook, +23 ?? +51

...And Northam also set new records for performance in urban centers of Virginia.

2013 v. 2017 margins
- Richmond City: +57% ?? +65
- Norfolk: +40 ?? +48
- Hampton: +38 ?? +44
- Newport News: +25 ?? +32

And Democratic areas saw massive spikes in turnout vs. 2013
Charlottesville: +13%
Arlington: +10
Alexandria: +9

The top 10 Democratic localities produced an extra 60,000 votes compared to 2013. That is a turnout surge.
posted by chris24 at 4:17 PM on November 8 [37 favorites]


Does anyone have any good links about the theory and practice of non-partisan districting? I know it is a complicated subject. But what's current thought on the best way to do it?

There are tons out there, a lot of work is being done on this right now, mainly to placate a certain A. Kennedy. My personal favorite is voroni tessellation redistricting.
posted by eclectist at 4:23 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]


That is great news, chris24! May all the suburbs keep turning bluer and bluer.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Charlottesville Nazis and the death of Heather Heyer helped push people toward the Democrats and away from Republicans. I mean, these were actual, for-real, no-shit Nazis, and an innocent woman was run down and killed by them. I bet there were former nonvoters and even tepid Republicans who said "whoa. This is not good. Republicans are aligning themselves with actual Nazis. I'm outta here."
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:24 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]




So, I don't know if this is a thing that should go to MetaTalk or not but...

The ENTIRE house is up in 2018. Anyone want to adopt a state and suss out the incumbents and their challengers and historic D/R splits Chrysostom style in some sort of shared document? Obvs, I'm volunteering for Missouri.(may need some help in taking the temperature from any KC or Como mefites, since I'm STL based) I probably won't be able to compile at least the initial data until Thanksgiving week since I'm off, but anyone in?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 5:08 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


But what's current thought on the best way to do it?

There are two tracks here. One is satisfying the overall body of Supreme Court case law, as eclectist noted, and getting a legal standard with a scientific/mathematical (and therefore not as manipulable) way to determine when gerrymandering is a violation of civil rights.

The other is simply philosophical as there are so many ways to look at the problem and how to choose your goals. There's been a lot of attention given in previous cycles to satisfying the requirements of the Voting Rights Act, for example -- this has allowed the creation of black-majority (or at least plurality) districts in North Carolina that look like an "octopus" and a "snake" respectively. But this has come to be seen as diluting black voting power overall. Another example, the 4th in Illinois, allowed the state to elect its first Hispanic Congressman, Luis Gutierrez [you can see why, using this map of ethnic demographics in Chicago], but is one of the most commonly reproduced district maps illustrating a gerrymander, from what I've seen.

The Annenberg Center has actually created a Redistricting Game, to enhance public understanding of the challenges. The Brennan Center has a round-up of current Citizen-Led Efforts to Reform Redistricting. There's plenty of broad agreement that there's a problem, just not as much consensus on how to address it.

One thing that has become abundantly clear in retrospect is that the GOP, led by the nose by the Koch Brothers and ALEC, used the 2010 election cycle very strategically in gaining control of state legislatures and the redistricting process to capture both those states' own statehouses AND their Congressional delegations for the foreseeable future.

There's plenty more out there, both in academic and cartography circles as well as the more political end. Perhaps I should make an FPP....
posted by dhartung at 5:30 PM on November 8 [24 favorites]


Perhaps I should make an FPP....

FPP! FPP! FPP!
posted by homunculus at 5:36 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Alrighty then. I just need to pull a few more angles of this together like what's happening with the Wisconsin case, and one or two of the online explainers (e.g. Vox, CGP Grey). I was lucky to have one of the principal drivers come and present their approach to the local progressives.
posted by dhartung at 5:46 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]


Thanks dhartung.
posted by Justinian at 5:49 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Yesterday Was a Good Day: Socialists and leftists performed well in races around the country.
Taken in total, the results represent a significant shift in the political moment. Though they undoubtedly stemmed to some extent from a typical pendulum swing to the out-party linked to popular disgruntlement with Trump’s presidency, the scale of the Democratic victory — which saw Democrats win mayoralties, governorships, and even some state legislatures — handily outdid expectations.

More importantly, the success of unapologetically socialist candidates and the prominent role of left-wing platforms in victorious campaigns suggest that a left message is, at worst, no recipe for electoral apocalypse — and at best, a positive vote-winner. Combined with marked change in the gender and racial makeup of many state and local governments — instanced by Ravi Bhalla, who became New Jersey’s first turbaned Sikh mayor despite a campaign of racist flyers against him — the results challenge time-worn precepts of conventional Beltway thinking.

Despite all evidence, some will continue to insist that Democrats need to “move back to the center” and follow the nineties-era recipes of Third Way thought. If the past year’s developments weren’t enough to dispel that notion, last night’s results should. Whether the Democratic Party leadership draws the right lessons is anyone’s guess.
posted by homunculus at 5:53 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]


fluttering hellfire: "Anyone want to adopt a state and suss out the incumbents and their challengers and historic D/R splits Chrysostom style in some sort of shared document?"

Sure, I'd be up for PA.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


Anyone want to adopt a state and suss out the incumbents and their challengers and historic D/R splits Chrysostom style in some sort of shared document?
I can do Iowa, with the caveat that the Democratic challengers haven't been determined yet. If anyone in Chicago is looking for a race to adopt, I can recommend Iowa's first congressional district. It is completely winnable for Democrats, and the current representative is an odious Freedom Caucus type who is waaaaaay to the right of the district. A recent poll showed that if the election were held tomorrow, either of the two Democratic frontrunners would beat him.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:23 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]


VA HOD update - Canvasses are now done. GOP leads in HDs 27, 28, 40, 94 within 0.5%, so eligible for a state-funded recount, if requested.

Three of the leads are probably too large to change in a recount; 94 is definitely within reach still.

Next: a couple of days to verify any provisional votes. This will probably not move the needle much. Then the results are certified; losing candidate can file for recount, date is set for recount. Upshot is that a recount result would be early to mid-December.

Current gain is 15. 16 is still in reach, which means 50-50.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:38 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]


So at the very least right now* I can line up all of the MO districts and their incumbents and their last election result. Anyone know what the best shared document app is for this?

*not like right now because I'm drinking beer and flipping back and forth between Maddow and hockey.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:42 PM on November 8


Current gain is 15. 16 is still in reach, which means 50-50.

The Republican gerrymander worked again, Democrats won the popular vote by 9%, and will not take a majority of seats.

Don't let anyone ever tell you we live in a democracy. Because that's a fucking lie.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:54 PM on November 8 [48 favorites]


I can adopt New Jersey. I'll be volunteering on one campaign or another so I'll be tapped into that sphere.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:28 PM on November 8


Hey, NJ folks, I'm actively involved in a group that's focused on District 11. If there's anyone here who's in the district and hasn't already joined NJ 11th for Change, please do so! We've been a thorn in Rodney Frelinghuysen's side since January, and getting a good amount of national attention. I can help coordinate any MeFi volunteering efforts with my group.

This group has kept me sane this year. I never thought I'd be involved in anything political, but it feels really good to actually DO SOMETHING constructive and positive.
posted by MsVader at 7:57 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]


WP: Potential chaos ahead as control of Virginia House of Delegates hangs in balance

Beyond the House, the article notes that Northam could screw with the 21-19 GOP majority in the state Senate by appointing a GOP senator to some commission or other. Dems win special, Senate is tied, LG Fairfax breaks ties.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]


(Hopefully dw is right about the ballots still arriving.)

UPDATE: 210K Seattle ballots returned, raising the return rate to a mediocre-but-not-terrible 46%.

Also, it's been confirmed that there aren't enough votes for Englund to come back in the 45th, so the state senate will flip to the Dems.
posted by dw at 9:06 PM on November 8 [15 favorites]


Yesterday Was a Good Day: Socialists and leftists performed well in races around the country.

I love how he completely ignores the blowout loss in Seattle for Jon Grant, who was running on a DSA/SW platform. Of course, he lost to a labor organizer, so it's not like he lost to a Republican.
posted by dw at 9:14 PM on November 8


Yeah, I don't see why mentioning Jon Grant's loss is a thing he should have done. Grant got outflanked to the left.

(I'm a little bit amazed that Grant got through to the general, honestly. Not because he's DSA, but because dude is hella awkward. like of all the candidates for electoral office I've ever seen, Grant is the one who most strongly reminds me of myself. And I have no business whatsoever running for any office.)

n.b. Grant is way more organized and effective than I'll ever be. However, my haircut is much cooler than his.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:09 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]


He's awkward, and there were some questions about some of his behavior at the Tenants Union and the civil rights complaint that was lodged against him there.

n.b.: I volunteered at the TU for the better part of a decade. I was briefly on the board, but not while Grant was the ED. I did not vote for Grant.
posted by sculpin at 11:11 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]


@adamcbest
Ralph Northam got 84% of the vote in Charlottesville.

Its residents clearly didn't think there were "very fine people on both sides."
posted by chris24 at 4:45 AM on November 9 [46 favorites]


VA HOD update - Canvasses are now done. GOP leads in HDs 27, 28, 40, 94 within 0.5%, so eligible for a state-funded recount, if requested.

Three of the leads are probably too large to change in a recount; 94 is definitely within reach still.


I hope the Dems request a recount in all these races. At worst recounts keep all Virginia Republicans off balance, uneasy and unable to make firm plans and cut firm deals until the recounts are done. At best recounts flip the House of Delegates.

Sharp elbows and hardball, make the Republicans sweat, make the Republicans work for it every single time.
posted by jointhedance at 4:50 AM on November 9 [24 favorites]


Of course, he lost to a labor organizer, so it's not like he lost to a Republican.

Well, there you go. Two days ago was a good day, even if you take exception to
posted by
Rustic Etruscan at 6:06 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


...holy shit we did it.

lighting incense and sprinkling a libation to st dogheart of gotv
posted by jointhedance at 6:26 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


So like, the houses Lannister and Baratheon control King's Landing and we're fighting for House Stark right? Can I be Arya cause she's bad ass. I'm not asking to the Mother of Dragons but OH EM GEE can I ride a dragon please?
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:30 AM on November 9


It says something about the state of 2017 that I was looking at the Virginia governor results and could have sworn that the third candidate's last name was "Hydra" for a long moment.

My city council is now 8 women and a black dude (including the woman who runs the local homeless resource center, who just got elected at large, and my district's very pro-GLBT candidate that handily beat the incumbent); our mayor continues to be a woman. It's a good week.
posted by joycehealy at 6:54 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Danica Roem's election is an important milestone for LGBT Americans, [snip]

She told Cosmo that she figures she'll make up for income loss and campaign costs through a book deal. That took me back a little, but I'd read the book and probably love it. I'm in D.C, so not a constituent, but I like her a lot.


I have mentioned in these threads before that Virginia has an absolutely anti-democratic system where delegates are expected to spend at least a month in Richmond (never mind constituent service the rest of the term) and yet get paid this pissant couple of grand for having this job. It insures that you end up with a candidate pool that doesn't remotely resemble the average citizen in their employment and almost certainly is more financially well-off than almost all the rest of the state. But fixing it is politically toxic because of the how dare they give themselves a raise attitude many have toward politician salaries.

So instead it's millionaires and successful lawyers of a flavor that they can just not practice for that month. I'm delighted by this influx of new blood but I'll admit that yesterday I started wondering how many of them can be expected to do a good job when they're paid as if it's only 30 minutes of work a week.
posted by phearlez at 7:12 AM on November 9 [10 favorites]


There's a catch-22 in that: if you pay them peanuts, politicians have to be independently wealthy, at least enough to accept the time off real work; you lose out on qualified people who are either too poor, or too interested in their own income, to take the job. OTOH, if you pay politicians well, you wind up with grifters and salespeople who are incompetent but sling a good elect-me campaign because they want the money, not the job.

There is no sweet spot of elected-official income that doesn't hit this problem. I can't even say which one bothers me more. Up until last year, I probably would've said, "increase the pay and perqs; we'll sort out the con-artists at the polls;" I no longer believe that.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:40 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]


OTOH, if you pay politicians well, you wind up with grifters and salespeople who are incompetent but sling a good elect-me campaign because they want the money, not the job.
I guess that I think you get that anyway, but just with legalized corruption, and it's probably better to have it all above board. I suppose it probably hinges on what you mean by "pay well," though.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:49 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


“A politician who is poor is a poor politician.” — Carlos Hank Gonzalez, Mexican politician, PRI stalwart
posted by chrchr at 7:52 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


Update from Florida: the pro-Confederacy city commissioner incumbent won re-election.
posted by Servo5678 at 8:08 AM on November 9


OTOH, if you pay politicians well, you wind up with grifters and salespeople who are incompetent but sling a good elect-me campaign because they want the money, not the job.

Sorry, but this isn't an acceptable argument for not paying people properly for their work.

(To be fair, there are no acceptable arguments.)
posted by NoxAeternum at 8:09 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]


Expect Bigger Risks from Democrats After Blockbuster Virginia Results (Issie Lapowsky for Wired, Nov. 8, 2017)
AS DEMOCRATIC WINS started piling up on election night in Virginia, you probably saw the names of a few key winners circulating in social media and the press. But while the victories of Virginia governor-elect Ralph Northam, and Danica Roem, the first transgender person to ever be elected to a state legislature, rightly resonated, one key to understanding Tuesday's significance could come from a Democrat who lost: Veronica Coleman.

When Ravi Gupta, an Obama campaign alum and co-founder of the progressive incubator The Arena, first got to know Coleman in September, she had precisely zero staff. To boost her bid for a seat in Virginia’s 84th district, The Arena fronted the money to provide three staffers to Coleman's campaign, which the nonpartisan Cook Political Report predicted would require a “tidal wave” to win. On Tuesday night, Coleman came up short—but still received 48 percent of the vote, in a race that was expected to be a blowout.

For Gupta, Coleman's loss indicates what he calls a “blue wave” washing over the country as much any one of the Democrats’ many wins, and he believes it sends a clear message to Democratic number crunchers heading into 2018: It's okay to take more risks.
The Virginia Pilot has a short write-up on the election results for some more context.
Glenn Davis will have another term in the 84th District House of Delegates seat after warding off challenger Veronica Coleman. Davis won with 51 percent of the vote.

Davis, a Republican who lives in Castleton, has been a delegate since 2013. That year, he had a victory margin of 13 percentage points. The seat has not gone to a Democrat since 1989. He campaigned this year on a promise to focus on jobs.

“I’m looking forward to the final numbers being certified and being able to serve the 84th District again,” Davis said.

Coleman, a pastor, promised to expand Medicaid in Virginia if elected.
Two take-aways: the final results aren't the only thing to be checking, and the potential for a Big Blue Wave is very real.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:11 AM on November 9 [17 favorites]


This election is a victory for Quinnipiac as well as for the Democrats. Their polling was dead on. Most other pollsters, even good ones, had a much narrower lead for Northam, and some of the less reliable pollsters were even showing a Gillespie win.

Most pollsters screen for likely voters based on the idea that past behavior predicts future behavior, and that the electorate in up-coming elections is going to look like the electorate in previous similar elections – in this case previous VA governor's and House of Delegates' races. That's not what happened this year. We had the biggest turnout in an off-year election in two decades, and especially high turnout Democratic-leaning areas. I think Quinnipiac's methodology is more sensitive to fluctuations in turn-out.

I wish had more detail from them about their methodology. But we do have this:
We use screen questions to determine likely voters. We use different screen questions depending on the election (ie. primary vs general election, presidential vs. off-year election, etc.). In past elections, we have used questions measuring intention to vote, attention to the campaign, past voting behavior, and interest in politics to identify who is likely vote.
That they list "intention to vote" first is significant. Most pollsters rely primarily on past voting behavior to screen likely voters. If they include 'how likely are you to vote' questions at all, it's usually to eliminate people who say they're not planning to vote even though they voted in previous comparable elections, not as their primary screening question.

Quinnipiac got that we were looking at a wave election coming up in Virginia. Almost all the other pollsters missed it. We're going have to keep an eye on this in polling for up-coming special elections and in 2018.

(Another pollster that uses a methodology that's very sensitive to changes turnout is Selzer. She's one of the best pollsters in the country, and famously predicted Obama's upset in the Iowa caucuses when almost no-one saw that coming. It's likely that Bloomberg will hire her again to poll the 2018 races. If Selzer and Quinnipiac are consistently showing 'outlier' results in 2018, pay attention! Methodology matters.)
posted by nangar at 8:20 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]


Payday Report with an in-depth look at the two DSA-endorsed candidates who won in Pittsburgh.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:04 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Nifty chart from VPAP of VA gov results sorted by registered voters in locality.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:24 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Excellent article Chrysostom, and informative for folks who don't live in heavy Democratic areas regarding the challenges that progressives face even in legacy deep blue regions. A lot of our Democrats aren't reallllly Democrats, and even the ones who kinda are are mired in machine politics. All those Costas need to gtfo and make some damn room.

“Dom Costa call your office” immediately tweeted out veteran Pittsburgh Post-Gazette political reporter Chris Potter, referencing the old school Italian-American political boss, State Representative Dom Costa, Judge Costa’s cousin.

WORD. This is my state house district. We've been working on this. I didn't get my boots onto the ground for this general election because a) life stuff happened and b) I know that I'm going to be needed even more for the spring primary and I was saving my strength (good lord do I despise canvassing--I'll do it, but I hate it so much). Dom Costa acts like his district is still what it was 20 years ago and it is seriously, seriously not. Even after the recent gerrymander that helpfully removed all of the black folks from his district. Lawrenceville, Morningside and even Stanton Heights are demographically and politically nothing like they were even 10 years ago. I have high hopes, and Mik not just winning but trouncing a Costa? *mwah* Super exciting.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:27 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


Nate Cohn at NYT had some thoughts on polling in VA and Quinnipiac. Obviously NYT/Upshot do their own polling so this could be sour grapes, but in general I find Nate pretty reasonable.

@Nate_Cohn
Finally, a word on the polling. In general, some firms will tend to lean left/right v. the average. It is a mistake, IMO, to give a pollster that reliably leans one-way credit for getting a result right when the polling error points toward their bias
- IVR, for instance, looked great in '16. Is that because they were good, or because the polling error was in the direction of their bias (no cell phones)? I'd argue the latter.
And, last night, IVR-mainly Rasmussen/Trafalgar had a tie/D+1. Not surprising.
- Similarly, Quinnipiac leaned left all year, and much of last year. Their *RV* polls have been farther left of other RDD national polls of *adults* for Trump approval. They had Northam up 17 a few weeks ago! I am not convinced that we should assume that Q is doing something right
- I do think the causes of polling error here are potentially straightforward: a lot of undecided voters who broke towards their '16 vote/Trump approval; a huge turnout that likely favored Dems. Will be fun to see when we get the vtr file back
posted by chris24 at 9:30 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


Phearlez and ErisLordFreedom: I'd like to see some kind of happy medium with regard to paying politicians. I recall several months ago a woman wanted to run against either Steve King in Iowa, or someone in his district, as a Democrat, but decided against it because she couldn't afford to lose her health insurance. I know congresspeople get health insurance, but IIRC the issue was that she would have had to quit her job in order to campaign, and no job = no affordable insurance for her.

I think we desperately need "ordinary" middle and working class people to run for office. I think it's toxic to our democracy if politicians have to be wealthy, or have a wealthy spouse or family money. It contributes to the toxic mentality of "I'm a rich successful business owner, that means I know how to govern." I want people of all backgrounds and income levels to run for local and state offices so they can become political experts.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 9:31 AM on November 9 [14 favorites]


Dom Costa acts like his district is still what it was 20 years ago and it is seriously, seriously not.

Yeah, having grown up local, moved away for a stretch, and come back - the changes around here are substantive. Lawrenceville was a total dump in the early 90s!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:32 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


> Payday Report with an in-depth look at the two DSA-endorsed candidates who won in Pittsburgh.

OK, so, I'm thrilled that these candidates won, and eagerly await a day when I don't have to hear the name "Costa" when talking about local politics, but this part of the piece made me cringe:
“Dom Costa call your office” immediately tweeted out veteran Pittsburgh Post-Gazette political reporter Chris Potter, referencing the old school Italian-American political boss, State Representative Dom Costa, Judge Costa’s cousin. [...]

As a pro-life, pro-cop State Representative Costa’s old school politics are out of sync with many of the younger more progressive-minded residents of his district. The 66-year-old Costa will face a formidable opponent in 31-year-old DSA activist Sara Innamorato.
First, why mention Costa's ethnicity here except to draw upon tired Mafioso tropes? I'm disgusted when the other side uses racist messaging to attack their opponents, and I think there's plenty wrong with Dom Costa's record that doesn't require implying that he's mobbed up just because he's corrupt and of Italian heritage.

And as for "pro-cop"... I'm pro-cop, by which I mean I believe police should be paid well and kept as safe as possible given the dangers of their job for as long as they do their jobs well. What I think is meant here is that Costa is anti-citizen, pro-incarceration, and against accountability for bad cops. Summarizing this as "pro-cop" is tone-deaf from a political messaging standpoint and doesn't capture the fact that most people who want police reform still care about the people who we trust to enforce our laws -- just not at the expense of the rest of the population.

Anyway, really glad this stuff is happening, but I hope we can find better ways to message this stuff as we continue to put points on the board.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:32 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


That's not what anyone means by "pro-cop".
posted by Artw at 9:34 AM on November 9 [11 favorites]


@AhmedBaba_:
Living in Fairfax, Virginia myself, I can tell you that national Democrats need to take notes from Ralph Northam's ground game.

They focused so heavily on turning out the base. It was relentless. What happened here should be a playbook for Democrats in 2018

posted by Artw at 9:36 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


> That's not what anyone means by "pro-cop".

Pretty sure I'm someone. Also pretty sure labeling the other side as "pro-cop" has the same drawbacks as accepting the framing of "pro-life".
posted by tonycpsu at 9:37 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


I interpreted the mention of him being Italian-American as referencing the old-Pittsburgh nature of his family and his politics, not being about the mafia. Morningside is known as an old Italian-American community and that's where the core of his support is presumed to be (that's certainly where his office is and where he lives-ish). But Morningside is fast losing its status as an ethnic enclave as younger families from outside the region move in, and that's part of the changing demographics of the district.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:40 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Yeah, I'm sympathetic to "let's be careful with the ethnic identifiers" and at the same time, Pittsburgh, as an older Eastern city, has had a lot of strong ethnically identified neighborhoods that probably make it worth mentioning.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:43 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


> I interpreted the mention of him being Italian-American as referencing the old-Pittsburgh nature of his family and his politics, not being about the mafia.

OK, I might have missed that nuance since I didn't grow up here. Still, even assuming no bad intent, I'm sure Costa would be happy to interpret it as a racial stereotype for the purposes of crying foul to his constituents and declaring that the radical leftists are the real racists. I just don't like handing the other side a messaging victory when simply citing his record should be enough to convince people to get rid of him.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:43 AM on November 9


In other election news, I won my election to the board of directors for our neighborhood's HOA.

...

There's no position too small to contest, I was told.
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 9:46 AM on November 9 [79 favorites]


Living in Fairfax, Virginia myself, I can tell you that national Democrats need to take notes from Ralph Northam's ground game.

They focused so heavily on turning out the base. It was relentless. What happened here should be a playbook for Democrats in 2018
I think that was already the national Democrats' playbook, for what it's worth. At least, I was really involved in the ground game in 2012, 2014 and 2016, and that was the overwhelming focus.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:05 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]


Speaking of ground game: I'd love to better understand whether KnockEveryDoor has traction.
posted by brainwane at 10:21 AM on November 9


Using "pro-cop" to mean "ghoulishly supportive of Blue Lives Matter CHUDs" may be a messaging defeat, but I don't think it's a major one. A good shorthand for reformists, an analogue for "pro-choice" in the abortion conflict, would be nice to have.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 10:26 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


pro-safe policing
pro-fair policing
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:36 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


> I interpreted the mention of him being Italian-American as referencing the old-Pittsburgh nature of his family and his politics, not being about the mafia.

There's definitely a big dynamic in play here in Pittsburgh of more ethnically self-identified (Italian, Polish, Irish, etc) traditional Democratic dynasties against the more secular and progressive "New Pittsburgh" politicians. The old Democrats here were pro-union but not very progressive otherwise and definitely not friends with BLM or any kind of attempts to reform the police.
posted by octothorpe at 10:38 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]


So basically Chicago with more geographical features then :(
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:44 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]


I wrote this for my FB but it was really inspired by all the feelings I felt reading this thread and all the wonderful, thoughtful political insight I get from all of you so I'll share it here too:

Now that the anniversary of the Election Day of Dread is over, I'm gonna make a long political post (so feel free to skip over it if you want). But unlike, I think, every other political post I've written in the past 367 days, this one is... positive. I know, I'd kind of forgotten what that word means too.

If you don't follow other areas' local and state elections during an off-year (and God, why would you?) you may not know what happened three days ago. So here's a sampler for you. A Virginia governors' race that had been consistently polled as "tight" ended in a 9+ point victory for the Democratic candidate, with historic turnout from Democratic and minority voters in a non-presidential election year. And not just the governor, either: the lieutenant governor, the attorney general, and FIFTEEN seats in the state house flipped too -- a tidal wave of change that not one prediction saw coming, in one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. Several other VA state house races are so tight they may not be settled until December. Notable victories include Danica Roem, a trans woman, handily unseating the prior rep, a noted homophobe who wrote that awful anti-trans bathroom bill. The House GOP whip in VA was defeated by a Democratic Socialist. The boyfriend of a journalist shot to death on air ran on a gun control platform and upset the incumbent Republican.

And it's not just VA. Democrats and progressives won key local and state races in Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Michigan, the list goes on. Philadelphia's district attorney is now an "unelectable" progressive whose qualifications include representing Occupy and Black Lives Matter and who beat his opponent by more than 40 percentage points. My Tennessee hometown elected a Democratic Socialists of America-endorsed candidate to the city council. Nashville voted to create a community oversight of policing board. Las Cruces swept their entire progressive slate into city government. A former Liberian refugee was elected mayor in Montana. Even locally, when all we had to vote on was a referendum, school funding initiatives are expected to pass in every district in the county for the first time ever. Identity barriers are getting smashed all over the place: if you look you'll see the headlines. First Latina in..., first African-American in..., first openly trans man in..., first openly trans woman in..., first woman in ..., first Sikh in..., first lesbian in..., first Asian-American in..., first Muslim in... Many of these candidates had smear campaigns run against them on the basis of their identity, and they won anyway.

Some of these victories are small (city council), but they are not meaningless. They are a beginning and a proof of concept. They've proved that you do not have to choose between good policy, popular appeal, and identity politics. You do not have to front a bland white man as a Democrat to appeal to a mythical middle ground. Diversity won two days ago, and it won strong. These results also prove that we should-- no, we MUST-- pull the frame of politics as far left as we can in the voting booth, and then pull it even farther left on the ground. Northam's victory speech in VA was interrupted by his own supporters as they protested for him to create sanctuary cities. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about: elect who we can and then hold them accountable.

Lastly, this year proves that the Democratic party machine's strategy of select attention, select support, select victories is a hollow one. Sure, they may win key states sometimes, but we've let the political narrative of this country get more and more conservative and narrow-minded in the past ten years. It's happened because conservatives went everywhere they could: into school boards, into city councils, into local commissions, every single place they could possibly get where it wasn't considered important enough to stop them. They supported each other, voted as a block, elected their allies wherever they could, and fought like hell to turn the Republican party into the Tea Party. And it worked. Now is the time for all of us to do the same.

In the next few weeks, the media will pick these victories apart, making them an impersonal force of physics rather than a massive effort of individuals. It will be an inevitable backlash against Trump. It will be voting fraud, or it will be the arc of history bending towards justice, depending on which side you're on. Don't let their language take this moment away from you. This happened because people did it. Because they wrote postcards, called senators, knocked on doors, helped people reinstate their right to vote, drove folks to the polls, petitioned for more polling places, campaigned on behalf of their candidates, and most of all, because they turned out to vote. There was nothing inevitable about this. We made it happen and we must keep making it happen or it will not happen anymore.

No election or referendum is too small to ignore. No office is too inconsequential or too much of a long shot to contest. No donation is too small, no amount of time you can volunteer is too little, no position you're considering becoming involved in is unimportant. We vote every time. We run every race. We make ourselves known everywhere and goddammit, if the arc of history bends towards justice, it's because we bend it.
posted by WidgetAlley at 10:47 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]


Interesting "winners & losers" from BlueVirginia, if you want to a deeper dive on the VA results.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:47 AM on November 9


Using "pro-cop" to mean "ghoulishly supportive of Blue Lives Matter CHUDs" may be a messaging defeat, but I don't think it's a major one. A good shorthand for reformists, an analogue for "pro-choice" in the abortion conflict, would be nice to have.

Pro-safety. I like framing the issue as pro-cop vs pro-safety.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:07 AM on November 9


I think you’re either pro-justice or pro-cop

The point is that in our society those things are currently opposed, and that’s exactly the problem. And that comparison really drives the conflicting priorities home.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:22 AM on November 9 [17 favorites]


Oh, pro-justice. I love that one. *adopts*
posted by XtinaS at 11:23 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]


Apparently Roy Moore has a history of abusing teenage girls. This is my totally unshocked face; whenever someone is a performative Christian in that degree, I expect to find some kind of abuse by them in the background. No one who isn't a hypocrite acts like that, IMHO.
posted by tavella at 11:37 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]


[cw: statutory rape]
Regarding the Roy Moore / Doug Jones special election in Alabama on December 12th: WaPo just broke a bombshell story about Moore's history of predatory behavior toward (underage) girls.
posted by duffell at 11:41 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


Moore being heavily discussed in the main politics thread, just fyi.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:56 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]


The old Democrats here were pro-union but not very progressive otherwise and definitely not friends with BLM or any kind of attempts to reform the police.
A few months ago I went to a dinner to benefit my local Democratic Club in Queens in New York City. I hadn't RSVP'd and I arrived a bit late, and was seated at an empty spot at a table with some older white women. When we got to talking about current local politics I found that my seatmate was quite opposed to Mayor de Blasio, who she considers anti-cop. (I believe some folks in her family are local law enforcement officers.) Huh. I hadn't realized anyone had that impression, honestly.
posted by brainwane at 12:28 PM on November 9


Huh. I hadn't realized anyone had that impression, honestly.

Yes, law enforcement officers have been pretty clear on what they think of the Mayor.
posted by mikepop at 12:39 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]


Perriello points out:

“If we’ve reached the point where Third Way is celebrating a $15 minimum wage, free college, and criminal justice reform, I’ll take it,” Perriello said. “We saw Ed Gillespie spent a couple of months trying to make the classic tax and spending attacks stick, and they didn’t, either with swing voters or base Republicans.”

Overton Window is moving left again.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:56 PM on November 9 [14 favorites]


There's a dedicated Moore thread now, btw.
posted by Room 641-A at 1:13 PM on November 9


Overton Window is moving left again.

At least its leftmost edge is, but I'm not convinced that the aperture isn't just widening or possibly even bifurcating.
posted by contraption at 3:08 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Yeah, we're going to need some non-standard panes for this and that gets expensive quick
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:43 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]


Alabama just normalised pedophilia in it's defense of Moore, so that window is fucking twisted.
posted by Artw at 4:58 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]


> ...that window is fucking twisted.

The correct carpentry term for this is "whacked".
posted by nangar at 5:09 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]


> Yeah, we're going to need some non-standard panes for this and that gets expensive quick

Yes, but you can cover the costs of the left side of the window from the proceeds of nationalizing all privately held productive property. And you don't have to pay for the right side of the window, because it's made using the forced labor of feudal serfs and slaves.

Basically the concept of price itself works differently once your window bifurcates.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:21 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]


I'm never letting you be my handyperson
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:41 PM on November 9 [16 favorites]


VA HOD update: Looks like we should have final provisional vote decision noon ET on Monday. That's probably going to give Dem candidates a couple of votes (literally a couple, 1-2). They then need to decide if they want to pursue a recount.

94 (Simonds) is considered a probable to be able to edge the R, 28 (Cole) is probably at the very edge of reasonable. The other two (27-Barnett and 40-Tanner) are probably too far out of reach, unless there was a serious error.

So current status is 51-49 GOP; fairly good chance of 50-50, slight possibility of 51-49 Dem, unlikely anything better than that.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:05 PM on November 9 [8 favorites]




A little more about "whacked": I worked on a remodel job on a pool house in what had been a small resort in the Appalachians in the early 20th century. The building was visibly leaning to one side and had started slowly sliding down the side of a hill in the hundred years since it had been built. The owner refused to pay to fix structural problems with the building, and just wanted us to get it functional again with the existing lean intact. We came up with the term "retro-whacking" to describe the sculpting we had to do to get new doors and windows to fit into the existing openings on our time sheets. (How the hell did it take three of you 20 hours to install a door? Oh, yeah, that place. I'm sure our boss came up with a spiffier term to use when billing the clients.)

The Democrats almost winning the VA House of Delegates feels like that job. A DSA member defeated the House speaker. A transgender candidate defeated the Republican sponsor of a bathroom bill... Impressive gains and lots of upsets. But the state legislature is still gerrymandered as hell, and we didn't quite win a majority.

Fortunately, on this job we are the clients. We're the owners, the carpenters and the people that live there. It's our house. We can fully retake the state legislature in 2019 despite gerrymandering (we've just proved we can do this) and fix the underlying structural problems that need to be fixed.
posted by nangar at 7:21 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]




And HD-27 is officially a GOP hold, Barnett has conceded.

Still three races pending.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:48 PM on November 9


Even 51-49 is a tremendous success, and drastically changes the field. Not only prevents the 2/3 veto, but it means that every Republican needs to be present and active for every measure. And a legislative body that's had a 16-person majority for a while may include several people who don't particularly pay attention, who aren't used to attending every single vote.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:25 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]


Yep, and we've picked off some of the worst ones - Marshall, but also Lingamfelter.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:14 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]


Robert Costa and Phillip Rucker, from the last article that Chrysostom linked:
“Donald Trump is an anchor for the GOP,” said veteran party strategist Mike Murphy, a Trump critic. “We got that message in loud volume in Virginia. The -canary in the coal mine didn’t just pass out; its head exploded.”
What sweet nothings are being whispered in my ear this morning.

Especially, y'know, because the rest of the article consists of quotes from the heads of various key GOP state committees and Bob Fucking Dole saying that they should stay the course and just keep pushing ACA repeal and/or the tax bill. Please proceed, assholes.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:57 AM on November 10 [10 favorites]


"What we did didn't work."

"Well, do it TWICE as hard, stupid!"
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]


Allison Klein, WaPo: The story behind the viral photo of Danica Roem falling to her knees on election night
“I’m thinking ‘Whoa the absentee ballots are out, I don’t want to jinx it. There’s only 19 of 20 precincts counted,’ ” she recalled.

All of a sudden, her phone rang. A voice on the other end said former vice president Joe Biden wanted to talk with her. A few seconds later, she heard Biden’s familiar voice.

Biden offered her a hearty ‘Congratulations,’ and just like that, the realization that she had won started to wash over her.

“When the former vice president of United States calls you, that’s usually the point when you can go ahead and declare victory,” said Roem.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:26 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]


Not to be all 2020 in this 2017 thread, but it’s very savvy for Biden to get himself associated with what lots of Dems are thinking of as the turning of the tide. National executives usually keep their names well clear of statehouse race coverage.

I’m sure it’s not a coincidence that news stories about Biden running and Biden 2020 trending—both positive and negative—are happening today.
posted by infinitewindow at 9:53 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]


Some surprise Green wins in Waterford, CT. If I'm reading this (frankly poorly written) story correctly, a mixture of outright wins and cross-endorsed Democrats.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:04 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]






Profile of the DSA endorsed winning Allegheny County Council candidate Anita Prizio. She managed to win in a largely suburban district that includes Fox Chapel, PA which is as wealthy and snooty a municipality as it sounds.
posted by octothorpe at 2:04 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]


> Profile of the DSA endorsed winning Allegheny County Council candidate Anita Prizio. She managed to win in a largely suburban district that includes Fox Chapel, PA which is as wealthy and snooty a municipality as it sounds.

As always with newspaper websites, and particularly with Trib Live... Do *not* read the comments.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:40 PM on November 10


In case that could affect 2018 elections, gerrymandering suit can proceed, Pa. high court rules

This could be huge, PA's districts are a horrible mess.
posted by octothorpe at 3:02 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]




duffel:
Returns in the city of Burien, 10 miles south of my home city of Seattle, are not looking good. The "I'm a racist piece of shit and I vote!" slate is winning 2 of 4 races, while the "let's try and be decent human beings" slate has the other 2 (but is only ahead by four votes in one of those races).
Later returns have favored the progressive/pro-sanctuary-city candidates, who are now ahead in all four races.
posted by mbrubeck at 4:49 PM on November 10 [12 favorites]


Oh, and in other news from the area, King County Sheriff John Urquhart (recently accused of sexual assault and related cover-ups) was defeated by challenger Mitzi Johanknecht.
posted by mbrubeck at 5:08 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]


Wow. I can't believe I missed this whole thread. I'm a lifelong Virginian who was very involved this year with canvassing, phone banking, running campaign social media, doing opposition research and, finally, poll observing on Tuesday.

Some stray observations (because I can't help myself):

- I was born and raised in the district where Danica Roem won. Not only did I grow up with bigoted Bob Marshall (her opponent) as my delegate, but he used to frequent the small retail business where I worked during my summers home from college. This guy drove a van that was LITERALLY WALLPAPERED on the outside with a plethora of anti-choice, anti-LGBTQ, anti-women, pro-gun bumper stickers. I would pretend not to know who he was or his name (he was really self-important) whenever he came in and he would get visibly pissed off when I'd ask, "What was your name, again?" SO overjoyed to not only see his reign of bigotry come to an end, but to see him lose to a transgender woman who wiped the floor with him on critical local issues: namely traffic, but also healthcare and jobs.

- While volunteering as a poll observer at two different locations, one of which was in deep red Trump country (the other was more purple), I observed a few interesting things. Namely, how aggressive other poll observers are. At the poll location for the super Trumpy district precinct, I not only had to listen to this one NRA guy BELLOWING for hours on end about his views on every issue (I'm not joking- the only thing missing was the wooden soapbox), but I also had the pleasure of seeing an election official walk outside to say, "HEY. We've just had a complaint. I don't know which one of you did it but I don't care. The complaint was that you all are being TOO. AGGRESSIVE. So cut it out." I think we all know to whom he was referring.

- Overheard at the super Trumpy district precinct: "Man I'm so glad we have Voter ID laws here!", "I didn't used to want to vote for Gillespie because I thought he was one of those establishment Republicans like Bush, but then he convinced me to HATE Ralph Northam. He really made me HATE Northam! So I'm 100% behind Gillespie now"; "Everyone was freaking out about Trump being elected but it's been a year now and he's been nothing but transparent! He's been fine! Everyone just calm down!"

- I'm not one to gloat, but it warms my heart a little to know that the abovementioned folks had their balloons deflated a good bit on Tuesday night.
posted by nightrecordings at 5:23 PM on November 10 [36 favorites]


There's some weirdness going on with the vote count in Stafford County, VA - refusal to count presumably valid military ballots.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:39 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]


The Whelk: "So the DSA can win elections, now what?"

That really should been a link to this.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:10 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]




VOX: Women won big on Tuesday.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 PM on November 11


Clover, SC - Progressive candidate wins mayoralty over 14-year incumbent by single vote after three re-counts.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:41 PM on November 11 [12 favorites]


The most Republican County in Ohio (Trump +32) returned all four local officeholding Democrats this week, and elected nine new ones.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:48 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]


HOLY SHIT HOLY SHIT MBRUBECK, I JUST SAW YOUR COMMENT ABOUT BURIEN, YAYYYYY
posted by duffell at 12:30 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]


The WaPo looks at how the election results in Virginia put Terry McAuliffe in the running for a presidential run in 2020, Terry McAuliffe may be on his way out in Va., but nationally he’s just arriving.
posted by peeedro at 5:20 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


Googling has failed me so far....thought I might ask here.

I'd really, really love a website that functions as a directory of unopposed races for "small" elections, local stuff that doesn't necessarily get a lot of attention / isn't super sexy. I have this idea in my head that across the country there are probably a ton of races where only one person runs and automatically wins - and maybe they should have some opposition. Is this a thing that exists, somewhere? If not, can we make it?
posted by lazaruslong at 6:12 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]


I think Ballotpedia may be of help, though it might require a lot of searching first.
posted by XtinaS at 7:02 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


lazaruslong, Blue Virginia does this for VA. There are probably similar sites for other states.
posted by nangar at 7:58 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I don't think there is a single overarching site that does it. Ballotpedia would have the data, I'm not sure if that could be scraped somehow or if they have an API.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:14 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


Check out this VPAP graph on old vs new House of Delegates on representativeness (gender, age, college, ethnicity).
posted by Chrysostom at 10:16 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]


There's some weirdness going on with the vote count in Stafford County, VA - refusal to count presumably valid military ballots.

@amaxsmith: New: #Stafford Co Electoral Board voted 2-1 yesterday to count 55 absentee ballots that may have been late if Judge gives ok for it

They're also extending the deadline for voters who filled out provisional ballots to come in and verify their votes until tomorrow.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:19 AM on November 13 [4 favorites]


Ha, I was about to comment that.

All other counties should have provisionals tabulated today, I believe.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:35 AM on November 13


Looks like ballotpedia does have an API. Gonna file this away as a project for next year.
posted by lazaruslong at 10:44 AM on November 13 [4 favorites]


The WaPo looks at how the election results in Virginia put Terry McAuliffe in the running for a presidential run in 2020, Terry McAuliffe may be on his way out in Va., but nationally he’s just arriving.

My takeaway from that article is that McAuliffe has one hell of a good PR team, because otherwise I don't see how your first (or 96th) thought when looking at last week's election result is "well obviously this means McAuliffe will be the Democratic nominee in 2020" unless you're huffing some mighty powerful glue.
posted by duffell at 11:10 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]


I'm sure McAuliffe thinks he's presidential timber, but...no.

Both of VA's senator slots are going to be locked up for a while, I'd suggest a think tank or PAC.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 AM on November 13 [3 favorites]


Vote deficit in VA HOD HD-94 is down to 10 votes after provisional votes added. Considered likely to flip after recount.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:52 AM on November 13 [11 favorites]




At this point, I feel relatively confident that 94 flips D. 40 unlikely to flip. 28 pretty unlikely, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:53 PM on November 13 [4 favorites]


So what's the final tally if the 94th flips?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:08 PM on November 13


It'd be a 50-50 split.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:11 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]


Which will be exciting times, indeed.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:12 PM on November 13


Julia Ioffe at the Atlantic: Wikileaks Julian Assange reached out directly to Donald Trump Jr. in the final weeks of the campaign to offer his outlet as a friendly recipient for the Trump campaign to leak non-damaging tax returns and other data, in order to avoid "biased" outlets like NYT getting them first and dropping a story that would be less positive. He also urged the campaign not to concede on election night and pledged support in contesting a "rigged" Clinton victory.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:19 PM on November 13


I'm not so sure about the ballpoint pen tweet, like all the tweets in reply my precinct has always used ballpoint. But I don't know if we're using the same ballot scanner hardware.
posted by peeedro at 2:19 PM on November 13


It is possible that the margin in the 94th will come entirely from members of my extended family. Don't let me down, extended family!
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:23 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]


Yeah, the ballpoint thing depends heavily on the type of scanner used. In Washington our ballots mostly use a scanner that can pick up felt-tip, ballpoint, whatever, so long as it's black or blue. There are some older scanners that need felt-tip only, though.
posted by dw at 3:13 PM on November 13


Extended writeup in the local paper on where the 94th district race stands right now

No recount will take place until after the state officially certifies the election on 11/20
posted by indubitable at 5:17 PM on November 13


Apologies in advance to Chrystosom for stealing their thunder, but Public Policy Polling did a number of polls for the left-leaning Patriot Majority PAC, and the results seem encouraging.

@AliLapp:
Need some good news to kick off the week? How about 13 polls in GOP-held House districts? All polls conducted November 8-9 by PPP. Big picture, all these Republicans will pay a political price for supporting GOP tax bill. It’s unpopular and voters are less likely to support a GOPer who votes for it. Also some fascinating head-to-head numbers in each district. Numbers that follow are head to heads and Trump and Ryan’s job approval numbers…..
  • Dana Rohrabacher losing by 10 points to a Democratic opponent, 41% to 51%, in CA-48 (Orange County). Ryan at 28/63 and Trump at 44/54.
  • In FL-26, Carlos Curbelo is losing 39/53 to a Democratic opponent. Trump at 37/59, Ryan at 28/63. This is South Florida, heavily Hispanic CD.
  • In IL-06 (suburban Chicago) Peter Roskam hasn’t had a tough race in a decade. Luck’s run out for him, as he is down 41/51 to a Democratic opponent. Trump underwater 38/57.
  • Dean Phillips is defeating Erik Paulsen 46/42 in MN-03, a suburban Minneapolis CD. Trump: 41/55, Ryan: 31/63.
  • In NE-02, former Congressman Brad Ashford is leading the man who beat him in 16, Don Bacon, 49% to 40%. Trump at 42/54; Ryan at 28/62.
  • In NJ-07, Rep. Leonard Lance is down 1 to a Democratic opponent, 42/41. Trump: 43/55, and Ryan is at 26/66.
  • Rep. Frelinghuysen losing to a Democrat 46/44 in NJ-11. Trump is at 43/52 and Ryan is even worse – 27/66.
  • Rep. John Faso is losing to a Democrat 46/40 in NY-19. Trump’s at 44/53 and Ryan is at 25/67.
  • In an Upstate NY district Trump carried by double digits (NY-22), GOP incumbent Claudia Tenney is losing to Democrat Anthony Brindisi 47/41.
  • In TX-07 (suburban Houston), Rep. Culberson at 39, Democratic opponent at 49. Trump at 37/59 and Ryan at 39/65.
  • In TX-32 (suburban Dallas), Rep. Pete Sessions behind a Democratic opponent 43% to 48%. Trump at 39/58, Ryan at 27/66.
  • In CA-25 (LA/Ventura Co), Steve Knight is losing to a Democratic opponent 38%-50%. Ryan and Trump wildly unpopular, at 23/66 and 40/58 respectively.
**Conclusion**: tax reform is not gonna save these guys. VA and NJ not a fluke – the suburbs are fleeing the GOP. Democrats completely holding their own even in Trump CDs
posted by zombieflanders at 7:12 AM on November 14 [2 favorites]


Apologies in advance to Chrystosom for stealing their thunder

YOU ARE DEAD TO ME.

I'm fine with the stealing thunder part, of course, but future elections should probably be in the main thread, I would think? Where, as it happens, those polls have been posted.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:24 AM on November 14 [2 favorites]


Btw, if you want to follow the minute by minute developments in the Stafford County count (and honestly, you probably don't need to, since it is unlikely to impact anything significantly), @amaxsmith seems to be the place to do so.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:26 AM on November 14


...and he just reported that "Stafford Electoral Board votes 2-1 NOT to count the 55 absentee ballots that arrived late."
posted by zombieflanders at 11:06 AM on November 14 [1 favorite]


Provisional is done, looks like Cole picked up net 2 votes in HD-28, leaving him 82 in the hole.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:25 PM on November 14 [1 favorite]


Those GOP polls... it's a year off etc. but that sure looks like a 1980/1994/2006 level wipeout in the House. And I think the only thing that keeps it to that would be the gerrymandering.
posted by dw at 2:57 PM on November 14


But if it’s a true wave, gerrymandering makes it even more powerful.
posted by Glibpaxman at 3:15 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]


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